Many Weather Changes Before 2019 Arrives

Good Sunday bloggers,

We have many weather changes to track before it becomes 2019. This means a lot is going to happen by Monday night. The data is coming in to line with a solution we can buy. So, here we go.

SUNDAY: It will be a mostly sunny and warmer day. A south to southwest wind at 15-25 mph will make it feel cooler.


SUNDAY NIGHT (MIDNIGHT): Rain will be racing in from the south and roads will stay wet as temperatures will be at or above freezing.


MONDAY MORNING (7 AM): Rain is likely with temperatures at or above freezing, so roads will be wet. Notice, there is a sharp cut off to the rain from St. Joseph to Topeka. This line seems pretty set, but it could still shift 15-30 miles west or east and this would make a huge difference in the forecast for KC.


MONDAY (NOON): It will still be raining with temperatures in the 30s. A few snowflakes may mix in on the very northwest edge. The complicating factor on whether we see slick roads New Years eve evening is the timing of a fast moving Arctic blast.


NEW YEARS EVE (5 PM TO 9 PM): The rain will be exiting as the Arctic air arrives. This is the period of time that will determine the extent of slick spots. If the Arctic air is faster and/or the rain exits slower, then we could see more of the rain change to snow with some accumulation. However, it is not the snow that has us too concerned. It is the amount of water left on surfaces when the Arctic blast arrives. Temperatures will be just above freezing before the Arctic air, so in less than 30 minutes temperatures will drop to the upper 20s and since the sun will be set, any water left could freeze quickly. It is not just the timing of the Arctic air and exit of the rain that will determine the extent of slick spots. It is also the amount of rainfall your location receives.


RAINFALL FORECAST: Remember, there is a sharp cut off to the main rain. Locations that see under .05″ will have less slick spots as most surfaces will dry before any water freezes. If this forecast pans out and KC sees .10″ to .50″ of rain, followed shortly by Arctic air, then slick spots will be likely. Locations to the south will really have to watch this closely as they will see .50″ to 1.50″ of rain. The 12Z NAM has come out with the western edge of the rain farther west, putting KC in .25″ to 1″ of rain and even some wet snow. Let’s watch this closely.


NEW YEARS EVE (9 PM TO MIDNIGHT): Regardless of whether there are slick spots, all locations will turn bitterly cold as temperatures drop to the teens with north winds at 15-25 mph. This brings wind chill values to -10° to 0°.


NEW YEARS EVE (MIDNIGHT): It will be windy and very cold. Lows New Years day will be around 10°. This is still 20 degrees warmer than New Years day 2018. Remember the low of -11! Wind chill values will be around -11°, however.


CHIEFS FORECAST: If you are headed to the game, make sure the napkins and plastic cups are secure, as south winds will be blowing at 15-25 mph. Temperatures will warm from the lower to mid 40s during tailgating. The kickoff temperature is about how many points I think the Chiefs will score. Now, can they hold Oakland to less? Temperatures will drop to 35°-40° by the end of the game with increasing clouds.


NEW YEARS EVE DETAILED FORECAST: Periods of rain are likely  through the day and it is the 5-9 PM time frame that we must watch closely for the potential of rapidly forming black ice. Also, the rain may end as wet snow, with some accumulation, just ahead of the Arctic blast.


Have a happy and safe New Year


Jeff Penner

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