Good evening bloggers,
I have a lot of things I am working on, but the data continues to strongly trend towards a very significant snowstorm. Here is the snowfall forecast map I am now showing in a few minutes on 41 Action News:
In the past 24 hours the storm has been predicted by the computer models to track farther south. It is a storm that is still northwest of Los Angeles. The storm is not only forecast to be farther south, but a bit stronger and wetter. Again, this has happened in the past 24 hours. Let’s see if this trend continues for the next 24 hours. Here is the map I showed on the earlier newscasts tonight.
I will go over the new data with a blog update later this evening. We now have breaking news on the Plaza with a major fire. This apparantly was the restaurant JJ’s. There are injuries reported, and I have big concerns since it happened during the dinner/Happy hour.
Have a great evening.
Gary
GFS Starting to Roll Out… Anticipation.
18z GFS coming in
how much ahead is a winter storm warning issued? 24 or 48 hours? on pins and needles here..
NEWNAM HAS 15-18 FOR STJOE
NO WAY…..
Oh geez….Price Chopper will be insane. People loading up with 2 weeks of supplies. These events seriously annoy me, you would think the Zombie Apocalypse had started but it’s 6 inches of snow.
Yeah. Some folks think they’re going to be snowed in for a week the way they over-react. If you get 2 days’ worth of needed supplies by tomorrow night, you’ll be totally fine.
Let me guess. I think Gary is going to forecast ““1″ or possibly much more” after the new data comes out.
Let me guess…Yew trees will come on the blog with a stupid comment.
wow a snarky comment
Who died and made you king?
the queen
You are one of the one’s constantly badgering people. Who died and made you king? Right back at ya.
You are hopeless, kcpurpledog!!
That’s weak.
Actually, the purple dog of Kansas City, I was responding to the post provided by “weather” or “mukustinks.” At no point in time was I providing a comment to you. Keep up the good work in providing feedback and trying to limit the countless, less than worthy posts provided by “weather.”
Better than a “dog” barking for nothing !!!
I thought it was kind of funny yewtrees.
You forgot the part where the “very complex weather pattern” shifts slightly to the north and we only wind up with a dusting.
If at all, this shift in the weather will be relayed at the last possible moment, to ensure maximum ratings.
Yes price chooper will be crazy. Just like yesterday LOL
Ooo, database errors. It’s like people want to read up on this winter storm or something. :p
From NWS Wichita Winter Storm Warning for central Kansas:
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS…FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
New GFS with much lower totals than NAM
Sounds like this will be like Christmas 2009 blizzard
GOOD OBSERVATION THAT WAS A UNIGUE STORM THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE OCCURED EITHER BUT IT DID.
Gary will have 6-10 for metro kc on new snow map
A fair assumption is when you see Jim Cantore and the Weather Channel reporters headed to your area, something pretty big is going on… LOL
Where Jim Cantore headed…what city?
I have heard Kc but could be St Joe or Omaha, I have heard they are on their way here..
Omaha per his twitter last night.
We’re doomed if Cantore is anywhere near here.
Actually I think this GFS might be all snow, just barely, but still. This is the warmest it gets: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=18&image=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_045_1000_500_thick.gif”
Bring on a Blizzard because like to see Weather Channel and so on doing live shots form KS/MO.
I think I saw tweet that Mike Seidel tentatively scheduled to report live from KC area. Omaha gets Cantore, I think.
GFS keeps KC in .75 to 1.0 inch liquid zone…so I’ll stick with my 6-10″ for central KC, more N and W, less S and E.
Here is the probabilities for everyone who likes numbers.
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities”
Nice. I like those probabilities of >6″ in KC.
New GFS is coming MORE inline with the NAM….
Winter Storm Warning for TOP, we’ll probably get ours tomorrow morning.
TONITE AT 930
It will likely happen this evening.
Looking Good!! Starting to get excited…but not too excited at least not yet!
What does the start time look like in KC? I work downtown, live in Waldo. My car is a ski in snow.
Start waxing those skis
Another fantastic comment.
thanks your a trouble maker
**you’re**
I don’t worry about the grammatical error. I am surprised you think I am troublemaker, being that you have been banned from the blog for your past transgressions. Wouldn’t that make you the troublemaker, or have you been reformed?
I don’t answer trouble makers. Next quesion plase.
I can’t believe you don’t have a response. Being that you spend an inordinate amount of time responding to others, often with comments that are out of turn and bring nothing to the overall conversation.
In the past, I found your commentary to be witty, however, your current methods of communication are rude, condescending, and often illogical.
Until you bring something worthwhile to the proverbial table, look for me to be there with my own brand of commentary.
around 3 am
By 6 a.m. Thursday we should be in it. It could start as early as 3 a.m.
GFS HALF THE NAM
wow the winter storm warning for Lawrence/ Topeka says 7-11 inches of snow possible…so imagine our totals for KC will be upped shortly..
Not only possible, but it says 7-11 inches will be common.
OMG how will we survive? Good thing all those kids have shovels now to dig us out!
You are a troublemaker.
You’re ruining my enjoyment of the blog. I vote to ban you!
I am almost certain people would appreciate seeing you leave. However, banning both of us would be fine. As you have proven, it is easy to sign-up and establish another identity. Banning obviously hasn’t stopped certain elements from entering the blogsphere again.
HELP US
PLEASE!!!
I can’t be certain, but I believe the attorney from St. Joe (who I find to be very interesting and insightful) wasn’t responding any post provided by you. However, again, you must provide a comment that does not add anything of value to the blog.
I will second your vote to ban you both.
Gary are you going to get people from the weather channel to do promos like Al Roker did fo the station?
Speaking of skis, snow creek is going to have REAL snow and a lot of it. Might be a fun time this weekend to get out there.
Lawrence WSW says travel will be difficult to impossible with snow pack roads on Thursday. This WSW is for heavy snow and will last from midnight Wed to midnight Thurs.
WWBD?
at Price Chopper covering the mad rush for bread eggs and milk!
Heatmiser it’s says he will be in either Omaha, Des Moines or Lincoln
It’s true!
Looks like one of those days I’m glad I can work at home if I need to…man, just the thought of shoveling all that is making my back hurt.
That’s why they make snow blowers or kids take your pick!
So a surface low of 19 degrees and a high of 32 today. Another cold blast tonight into tomorrow. This ground is going to be cold. Roads are going to be cold. This will be fun no matter what the actual totals end up.
I plan to sit an drink all day Thursday. Yes sit, no driving for this guy.
AMEN! Post of the day! Again
Great idea. I might do that too. Or plant some bottles of beer in the snow banks as I shovel the driveway. Nothing tastes better than a snow-chilled beer when you’ve been working up a sweat.
I appreciate the coverage, but 6 inches, even 10 inches is not a huge deal. I grew up here and we used to get and have lots of snow. It was an ice storm I would get people freaking out, but not for snow. I don’t get the major winter storm for 2 – 6 inches or whatever ends up transpiring. I know Kansas City has many transplants now that don’t realize that snow and Kansas City used to be a common occurrence.
snowlover, I have lived here 17 years and it amazes me how people lose their minds with even 2-6” of snow. Perhaps it used to not be a huge deal, but it sure is now. I haved lived in Iowa and Michigan and there it seems part of daily life. That is not the case here, especially when it comes to snow removal and people being able to drive in it.
I would challenge that it’s usual in Iowa. While they certainly have harsher winters than we do here, and typically have 5-15 more inches of snow on average depending on the part of the state, 10inch snows are not common anywhere in the U.S. except Great Lakes snow belts, and Mountains. Minneapolis, Des Moines, or anywhere in the midwest doesn’t get a ton of 10+ inch snowstorms. It just doesn’t happen. Now they might get a lot more of 6-8 and can get a 16 inch one from time to time while we are getting our proverbial 2-4 or 1-3, but it’s in the record books. It is infrequent.
Quit being a party pooper. This is turning into a pretty big snowstorm for our area and that is fairly unusual. It is a pretty big deal. An inch of snow if a big deal for Atlanta, but not for KC. 8 inches is a big deal for KC, but not for Michigan. Three feet is a big deal for Michigan but not for Alaska. It’s all relative and it’s all what an area is used to. Quit bumming our trip. If you must do it, go to “wearehugebores.com” and make a blog entry.
The HeatMiser has spoken.
I’ve lived in Kansas City for 19 years and I can count on my 10 fingers the number of snow events I’ve witnessed during those years that amounted to more than 6 inches. When you factor in that and the pi$$-poor job KC does at snow removal in some of the neighborhoods, you can begin to understand why some folks get so worked up.
6″+ is a big storm and definitely disruptive the day it hits. But it’s also not something that’s going to shut the region down for days….we’re not talking feet of snow here or anything.
Correct, it won’t have long impacts beyond 2 days, less in places that do a good job at snow removal, like Johnson County. Have you ever lived in the city of Kansas City, MO? I have and still do and trust me they do a bad job of clearing side streets here. Back in the winter of 2006-2007, my street was literally a sheet of ice for 3 weeks straight. They never applied any salt. I lived in OP back in the 1990s and they did a great job of clearing the streets.
No but I’ve had many mornings where I had to drive across the state line when it was snowing…so I know what you mean.
In the early 1960s the Shawnee Mission schools were closed for almost a week. We had 24-28″ of snow. They were building I-35 and didn’t have the roadbed in yet, so we’d go to the top of the “hill” at Johnson Drive and sled down. A few years later we had repeated ice storms, usually around New Year’s. So yeah, a few inches of snow now is nothing compared to…(ok, everyone groan if you must)……THE OLDEN DAYS!
Don’t forget Al Roker,Paul Goodloe,Eric Fisher and so on will also be live.
I say Schools just do their Spring breaks know.
I’m not to worried yet as it’s only a major storm. If it goes to a one star General or higher then I’ll worry!
After every snow storm the roads are full of cars in the ditch driven by people making similar statements.
John
None of those people have been me
**too**
Snowzilla is coming!
Yes. WWBD!!! WE NEED BASTARDI!!!
BASTARDIIIIIIII!!!!
10-14
Someone’s spreading rumours on Facebook another local station was quoted at saying 20 inches… lol.
Is Sly James going to hold a presser on this impending doom or what? I mean how is anyone going to know what the hell to do?
Don’t forget the request for federal aid.
It’s going to be every man,woman, and child for themselves! Pandimonium just plain crazy!
I really hope we get hammered with heavy snow! Would love to see a real sense of winter after all these boring months of nothing. Since all meteorologists on tv now consider an inch or two of rain or snow a “storm,” it’s hard to trust what they are now calling a storm this week. Fingers crossed. Come on, Gary…make it snow a foot!
20 inches was up In Neb and or Iowa was possible and they did say that, I saw it this afternoon
Its weather-MAN, not weather-LADY!
Well played sir…..
SNOWMAGEDON MAN!!!! I plan to run around in circles screaming for hours during the height of the snowstorm!
I hope the news gets video of that! It would be great to see.
TOO COLD IT WILL BE DRY AT THE START KCNWS 7-11 STJOE ALL THURSDAY IN THE DAY AND EVENING NOTHING OVERNITE WED. BUMP THE 7-11 JUST A LITTLE WE HAVE 1.00 TP 1.25 LIQUID COLD 12-1 RATIO GET NE TO 12-16. ACTUALLY 7-11 PLUS ONE MORE INCH GETS A FOOT A DEFORMATION BAND COULD DO IT.
NWS Pleasant Hill just posted graphic on FB showing 6.2 inches near downtown KC, 7.9 in Leavenworth, 5.4 in Olathe, and 3.4 in Harrisonville.
What kind of winds and drifting are we looking at?
Moderate winds. Enough for some drifting, not enough to make blizzard status. I heard gusts to 25, possible even 35 at times.
interesting sedsinck but that sure isnt consistent with their winter storm warning snowfall totals for counties just west of us…crazy they are trying to be so exact so far out
Yes. I dislike it when there are discrepancies between neighboring NWS offices. I’m not sure what Pleasant Hill used to generate their map.
heh heh…look at Gary’s new snow map on the blog
Gary says 7-10″ of snow for KC, a little less from the 435 loop on the south side and south from that.
Oops, sitting down here at bottom of the comments, didn’t realize he’d posted the map already.
He just now put it up.
so is Gary still saying we will get any sleet/freezing rain?
mostly snow. any sleet is minimal. the 7-11 inches is in addition to any minor ice accumulations according to the WSW
Ok another question, is this going to be wet snow with big flakes and sticks to everything, or is it going to be dry and powdery.
Looks to be wet at this point.
We’re probably going to have some periods where very large, fat flakes fall due to the warmer air trying to move in aloft.
Overpass live shot – check
Discussing hardware and grocery store runs on supplies – check
And the storm isn’t close yet. More fun times to come.
Heaven forbid this storm fizzles for all the moaning and groaning that will go on here.
Only if there’s an impending storm that could drop 5+ inches will the blog accumulate 100+ comments under an hour.
No work on Thursday I’m guessing. WSW states not to travel except in an emergency.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.
I remember when they didn’t update the blog constantly and we had a couple blog entries that topped over 300 comments. I’m still going with 4 inches just so I’m not dissappointed.
I’ve been on this blog for more than five years now, it is crazy how much it has changed. You used to have to scroll horizontally to see all of someones comment. This blog has had good and bad times. But when there is an approaching storm it is at its best!
Sorry for being so sentimental, this blog is meant for weather only. 4 INCHES PRIVATE PILE!!! 4 INCHES!!! I’m sticking with 4 inches of snow so I absolutely cannot be dissapointed.
Bring it on!!!
I just watched a competitor’s met and he showed some modeling data that painted as much as 22 inches of snow not far north of KC around Plattsburg, but general 12 to 22 inch accumulations north of the 435 loop in the Northland. I don’t know what data he used to generate that graphic.
Um.. wow. What data were they using cause thats just a fear factor…
He did not say.
Gary just said could be some thundersnow with “tremendous amounts’ of snow.
I heard that too!
Decided to check out the competitor just for comparison’s sake. The competitor also mentioned thundersnow as a contributor to those huge snowfall totals to the north of KC.
Hey KSHB, get the mower man Mike on a news story like you did with the Chiefs sign he had in his yard! He knows everything about everything, so it really doesn’t matter what the news story is about: Chiefs, Royals, snow, rain, grass, mowing, salt, grocery stores, driving, bars, etc. Pick a story and I guarantee he is the expert! Would make for compelling TV fer sher!
Theo,
I’m not sure that he knows everything about everything, but, he did predict a wild end to February several weeks ago and just this last weekend he mentioned that this would be all snow. He mentioned that arctic high playing a major role in keeping this all snow.
His predictions have been pretty good this winter.
And Theo will get on here and tell us how much of an expert mower man is. I will get on here and tell you how much everyone appreciates Theo…..NOT. Don’t know mower man. He seems to have decent things to say. Theo seems to want to cut people down. Just what is your problem Theo?
“http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif
latest GFS snow map shows 10-12″ for the metro
A solid foot would be awesome!
oh yeah, now for it to verify. Wondering when the NWS will issue the Warning.
This would be awesome!
HeatMiser,
No matter how big the storm, if there’s thundersnow, those areas will be hammerd. Thunder snow, thunder sleet, everytime I’ve witnessed that happening. It is like everything was shaken out of the clouds, never had seen frozen precipitation pile up like that. But if you get under a storm like that you can easily get an extra 2 inches more than anybody.
NWS KC not buying it yet. Still going with a watch. Intersting.
I’m in Lawrence…upgraded to a warning for heavy snow here…7-11 inches will be common…don’t travel, too dangerous, etc. Cool! You should get upgraded tonight.
They have criteria about how far in advance of a winter storm they can issue warnings. Be patient, grasshopper. By tomorrow morning, if not sooner, the entire KC metro and surrounding areas will be in a WS warning.
Gary said he would return to the blog around 5:30 to update us. Bring it on Gary!
Wouldn’t convection increase the chance of sleet mixing in with a near freezing EML?
LoL…there is Food with his sleet talk again. Minimal sleet expected here dude. Lots of sleet further south and southeast.
I would actually love to get on tv and talk about the Royals. #RoyalsWS2013
Wny? The Royals have sucked for so many years I can’t even count them. Many, many, many, many, many years.
That’s a riot. #RoyalsLP2013 LP=Last place
Hope is another way of expressing fear. Think about it.
weather..i dont think NWS can issue a winter storm warning more than 36 hours in advance..?
Yeah, that sounds about right. Wasn’t sure if the criteria was 24 or 36 hours.
ok thanks
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge08_2013022000f048.gif”
from the HPC, shows % chance of seeing more than 8″ of snow
from the NWS forecast disssion:
Have opted to hold off issuing any warnings and continue the watch
as there remains enough uncertainty in the track of the system and
snow/ice amounts remain in flux. Plus the ECMWF has shifted away
from its previous forecast as well as the other model forecasts.
How have all others moved away? They JUST came out
I wonder what they are meaning by the last line?
I was wondering the same thing, do you know wha they mean?
Honestly, no. If anything they are shifting towards more snow and less ice. But it doesnt fit why they would be waiting to issue a winter storm warning. Its clear we are going to get hit. I dont understand the reason for waiting.
Wrong. You’re just further away from the storm the previous Watch area, so your Watch will turn Warning a little later. It’ll happen tonight. Large storm, no chance it will miss you… that is not why Warning not issued yet.
Interesting. From what I read in their discussion posted after 5 p.m., the changes indicate more snow farther south and east than previously thought.
Th ECMWF has not come out. Still 12z which hasn’t changed. Whoever that is saying that is smoking smoke good stuff
What does that even mean? That the storm will go poof or maybe the sleet and freezing rain has shifted south? That’s kind of confusing.
It means we will get more precip,and it will mostly all be snow because the storm has shifted more towards the south. So instead of Nebraska being the bullseye, our general area now is.
Where are you Gary? I thought you said you would join the blog around 5:30.
I got called into a meeting. Sorry! I will add a few lines, but do a blog update later this evening.
Thanks GL!
Even a different competitor who likes to stay “calm” and lately often underdoes his accumulation forecasts is calling for 4 to 8 inches in the KC metro.
I live in Salina and we’re forecasted around 12″. Exciting!
“http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1″
here is the full NWS forecast discussion for those interested
Now I understand what they are saying.
watching the weather channel.. and said 10 to 15inches of snow for KANSAS CITY
Nu Uh! Are you high?
Hmmm, TWC new snowfall map has kc in middle of 6-12 inch swath now…that’s new.
From TWC :
… WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…
.A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY… BRINGING A WIDE MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST INDICATES THE WINTER SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND COOLED SLIGHTLY… WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS… WHILE SHIFTING THE PREFERRED AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. STILL… THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS GENERALLY EXPECTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36… WITH THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF MOUND CITY KANSAS TO CLINTON… SEDALIA… BOONVILLE MISSOURI LINE. A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS.
TWC says 7-13 inches for KC
Radar showing precip forming in West Texas and Southern New Mexico…it’s beginning!
well due to the big fire on the plaza there wasnt any weather coverage for Gary on the 6 pm news…
booooooo.
brad
You’re kidding, right? This is a pretty serious fire and merits the coverage it’s getting.
Yeah, the fire is starting to come down now…enough already. Back to the weather.
agreed.
brad
finally, thanks for the update Gary. we have been waiting for almost an hour or so since you said you would update it at 5:30 tonight
looking forward to tonight entry.
brad
so much for getting work done tomorrow
The snow day talk will reach a fever pitch! And of course there will be those of us glued to this blog…
Okay, Gary just put new map on blog showing heavy thundersnow area. Cool. BTW, TWC shows the area out west that Gary has put 9-12 inches as 12-18 inches. Interesting.
Will this storm be same as the one Christmas 2009, that one last days I believe
Just watched a internet clip of one of the other local stations. They showed a computer run that indicated 22 inches in Clay county. Now, we know that is unlikely, but what I think that particular computer model run was indicating is the possibility of thundersnow.
Totals could get out of control should that happen.
Warm conveyor belt of moist air moving into a very cold air mass is the recipe for big time snows. This should be a snow making machine.
This is very rare around here, but it may very well happen.
Snow lovers rejoice! Still 36 hours for the models to back off from this solution…
i know right,, im just waiting to wake up tomorrow and see it go poof.. this keeps getting too good to be true
Sounds like this is going to be a wicked, wicked storm. Awesome! Esp if you get caught in some heavy thundersnow.
May be interesting trying to do a 12-13 mile run Thursday morning!
I think you should try it.
why is that,, the convection should only make it rain here
Haha, this is only TWC, but they just said “more than 6-12 inches in Kansas City”.
we can hope.
some mood music.
“http://www.freejohnnydare.com/fjd/2009/12/fluffy-flakes-of-doooooom/”
“http://www.freejohnnydare.com/fjd/2011/01/snownami-the-orchestral-version/”
Prayers go out to the fire victims.
Amen to THAT!
I was just on TWC waiting for the latest of Storm Q. OMG – they should call it The Commercial Channel. Commercial after commercial after commercial after commercial after commercial. Oh my freaking god~
At this moment 192 comments. Lets Max This Out!!!!!!
Still need infield reporter in front of the Board of Education about school closings.
I don’t think it has ever gotten to 300 comments on a post.
We’ll get you there, Gary!
Oh, I forgot a reporter at the hardware store, tire store and Red Box Rentals.
Gary,what do you think about TWCs forecast for KC of 10-15 inches?
Our in-house computer model has more than 15 inches.
OMG – do you believe it? Are you buying that? What does it show for Lawrence?
WOW
I’m gonna faint! The anticipation is too much!
LOL
Okay, I’ll pitch in to go over 200 entries. It’s super to see this storm trending toward more snow for KC.
I’m ready for snow!
Well, Since we are talking about where the reporters will be, no one has mentioned the reporter outside with the ruler, and the reporter that will ride with the snow plows to get an “inside look at what crews are dealing with”
I can’t wait! It’s about time, we are long overdue!
Latest NAM should start rolling out in the next half hour to 45 minutes.
Finally a decent storm. The models have been consistent for a week. I say 6-8 inches. I would like more, but don’t see it.
You don’t see it but it’s staring you in the face. Mabye you need glasses?
I actually do, but that’s besides the point. I think I want to see it on the ground…
Ok, I’m convinced. I’ll go with >8″ at my location near I-29 & 64th. Who else wants to make a call?
What the heck, I’ll up the ante and say 9″ at my location off of NE Vivion and N Oak Trafficway. I think it’s realistic esp. if thundersnow occurs. Maybe I should wait until after the latest model runs to make the call though.
What do you guys think about school Thursday and Friday?
As it stands, I doubt they would have school on Thursday. Friday is more up in the air, depends on total accumulations and how long it keeps snowing Thursday.
in lansing its a sure bet for thursday(if the models continue trend like they’ve been trending…IF)….schools tend to close their doors once a Winter storm warning is issued with the liabilities and all, friday could get interesting it will be bitterly cold overnight with the possibility of massive refreeze but still is a toss up
Gary, Jacob, is this same as the blizzard on Christmas in 2009?
The winds won’t be strong enough for this to become a blizzard.
Every storm is unique in its features. But in my opinion it is close. The only big difference I see is in 2009 we had a lot of sleet on the onset of the storm. Along with stronger winds. This storm will mostly be snow for Kansas City. But sleet will be higher farther south you go.
*is this gonna be like the 09 blizzard during Christmas is what I’m trying to say
12+ in Liberty!!
We got underneath a prolonged, training ThunderSnow Storm.
Finally a decent storm!! One worthy of joining the blog over!
What’s it looking like for Paola? Last I saw was 3-5 inches… Hoping for more than that though!!
This Accuweather guy thinks this is a normal storm and doesn’t buy that those on the SE of the Upper Low will get much snow
Jacob posted him yesterday
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-to-aid-wheat-belt-dro/6460438
when do the next NAM and GFS models come out? Also what are the chances of this storm staying on track and not changing much by Thursday? This is looking to good to be true and I keep hearing people talk about this storm going POOF and us only getting 1-3 inches! Is that possible?
Lol @ gary…come on 300
Did you guys see above with one of Gary’s comments that his in house computer is showing < 15 inches for KC?
Yes I did, that is amazing
Watching this coverage from the fire, nice to see on the scene interviews with people that you can actually understand.
8 inches! Let us give thanks.
The probability map is pretty fancy, thanks kcchamps.
Are these record blog post numbers?
Gary, are you believing your in-house computer model solution and if so will you be upping your snowfall total map again?
Gary are u believing the in house models of 15 inches? I’m from Florida and I just moved here so any snow is great for me. What is thunder snow?
its like a thunderstorm but its snowing HARD!!
Gary, are you going to up your snow amounts again?
I got my ruler out….
To measure how much liquor I got left on Thursday
Thats funny….
LOL
Watch the cutoff line shift………………….be ready for the famous……….”POOF”
If poof is the sound of thunder snow then its going!
The blizzard in 2009 wasn’t it over a couple days?
NO
Ya chiefsfan, I’m wondering about a time frame as to how long this will last. My memory tells me your right about 09 blizzard lasting for two days…but it doesn’t seem like this will be as severe.
*last a couple days is what meant
Yes. All told it was about a 3 day event, but the heaviest part came at the beginning. Then the center of the big upper low spun around for a couple of days north of us and disturbances kept rotating around it, giving us a few more inches of accumulation.
Here comes the new NAM. Let the inflated moisture continue please….
The last time I remember 16 inch snow totals around Independence was the winter of 1993. I’m looking forward to lots of snow….lets just keep the ice at bay.
Do we need to be concerned about loosing power with the much snow if there’s not any ice?
Only if you don’t pay your bill.
I love it.
I don’t understand why people are actually believing the *poof* crap. There is no chance of this storm going away quietly. Also, when is the latest NAM coming out?
Uh, make that losing, not loosing.
LOL
The fire sucks, but the weather doesn’t seem less important to me. It still affects all of whether the fire happened or not.
Please notify the newsroom that gas mains are underground and it would be very difficult for a car to hit a gas main. A strong clue would be a burned out backhoe stretched over a gas fed fire coming out of the ground. Somebody’s in a heap a trouble. Winter storm seems less important now. Will be a miracle if no one died in this. Thoughts and prayers to all those affected.
I’ve been thinking the same thing. The fire really puts things in perspective. My prayers go out to the people in the fire.
I don’t mean to go totally off the weather topic but there seems to be a communication problem with residents in the area, wondering if their gas will be turned off and they need to find somewhere to spend the night. I hope everyone is settled back in before the winter storm comes.
sedsinkc, thanks, I thought so, its better if it comes in a day hits and then moves out, instead of lagging on, then the road crew have trouble , plus if its a wet snow maybe it won’t blow as bad as then
Luckily, the 2009 blizzard hit Xmas eve, and Christmas Day was a Friday so those holidays rolled right into a weekend.
Let it snow…Let it snow….let it snow!
Ok I’m going with 12 inches at downtown airport subject to change to a nowcast situation.
Just talked to my sister, she lives just a few blocks north of JJ’s on the plaza, said she felt the blast, it was her favorite place thank God she wasn’t there. Many lives lost I’m sure, very sad.
My gf knows the owner of JJs, has worked with him on fundraising events. He was in OKC when the blast hit.
3 are missing
Wow some of the comments I have read at multiple locations about the fire on the plaza and complaints about television programming is very sad. It’s a serious situation and very likely the loss of life and these people are worried about tv shows. So losing my faith in people when tv shows are that high on people’s priorities. Praying for those injured,possibly killed, their families and the emergency crews.
First timer here but do love to read the hype when a storm of any kind approaches. Seriously, doesn’t anyone over 45 remember how KC used to get slammed with snow back in the day? It seemed like there was snow pretty much on the ground throughout the winters. Heck, this will probably bristle some feathers of the PC crowd but we kids used to put on our best church shoes and run behind cars to grab the bumper and “goolie” (ski behind the car for those in the cheap seats) behind it for blocks. Cars would slow down to let us do it. Only down sides were either getting behind a VW Beetle next to the exhaust pipe or hitting a dry patch in the road-:) Probably get prison time today doing that…
39 more!
Prayers to the injured. If it was a backhoe then like someone said they are in big trouble. If it was clearly marked by digrite anyway. I would lean to the construction having caused this explosion as it makes the most sense. Was there construction going on?
For what it’s worth accuweather still has 3-6 for KC. Now we all know that it should be notaccuweather.
when do the next models come out? What are the chances of this storm staying on track and not changing much by Thursday? Its looking to good to be true and I keep hearing people talk about this storm going POOF and us only getting 1-3 inches! Is that possible?
NAM rolling out now, up to hour 36. There’s always a chance this could go poof, this is KC after all. But models have been consistent for SEVERAL days on a major winter storm for us. So the odds of this going poof are very low.
The pros on this site undoubtedly have better memories than I, but it seems like we’ve had one or two winter storm warnings that DID go poof. I just remember all the faces looking out windows at work, waiting for the Big Storm and all the snow, and all we had was rain……..
Absolutely. I remember a storm 8 or 10 years ago where we were in WS warning, expecting 6 to 10 inches, and only had 1 inch in Liberty. Another time a huge storm hit from the southeast side of town east toward Sedalia and Liberty had zero and Gladstone had a dusting. This was probably in 2006 or 2007.
Not going POOF This time
So far the NAM Is showing an amazing amount of moisture. In the 1.0 to 1.25 total. That’s hard to believe
Anyone else noticing the blog slowing down I guess from so many posts and so much traffic? Also, I wen to the HyVee gas station tonight in Lee’s Summit. They have signs on the pumps saying to pay inside because so many people are running credit cards through the system right now in Missouri due to the pending storm that it is crashing their system. Wild.
I closed and reopened a new window and fixed the slowness for me
Its the alcohol, not the window.
Dang , so opening and closing the window next to the front door wasn’t what fixed it? I am a computer genius.
BWAHAHAHA!
48 Hour NAM for those interested.
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif”
No no….keep the POOF talk going. The more we talk about the POOF factor, the more likely we will see a major snow event!
Poof, poof, poof, poof, poof, poof…………
The NAM is silly wet. Projected snowfall 11-12 inches in our area. Right close to the projected 12 around St Joe.
16 inches in central KS.
25 more comments to 300
latest NAM BLASTS us! now time to wait and see what the GFS will say
My snow blower is getting very anxious!
For those worried about their beloved show “The Bachelor”, Sean will eventually dump Lindsay and propose to Catherine. Now back to true reality, the fire and the snow storm.
New NAM slows the storm down slightly again, perhaps 1 or, at most, 2 hours. 6 a.m. Thursday is looking more likely as time of precip onset in KC proper, earlier to the west and south. Last of the light precip is out of here by around midnight Thursday night. Total liquid precip around KC 1 to 1.25 inches.
If KC gets 10-12 inches of snow this city will be shutdown. They can’t even clear 4 inches of snow in KC MO. It would be nice to see 10-12 inches of snow for a change.
I believe this is why one of the bloggers was enlisting children with shovels in his/her “Snow Army”.
That was me. Keep them busy and usefull. Their little arms will be to tired to throw snowballs at cars that way!
Remember 3 years ago when Kansas City did not even plow some streets because they were out of money. Any snow amounts over 6″ is a bunch for KC to clean up quickly on the side streets.
I remember it, and so does my back. After the Xmas blizzard, it took KC about 4 days to send a plow through my KC neighborhood. My gf and I had to go down to the intersection of Vivion and Davidson with our snow shovels and shovel that intersection out by hand because the snow was about 2 feet deep there with what had been plowed off of Vivion Road and cars were getting stuck.
To be fair, the city has done a better job since that winter. After the next year’s blizzard, a plow came through that night. But 2009-2010 was ridiculous.
Mr. Twistersis has apparently lost his mind. I now have three snow/ice scrapers in my car. The hysteria is obviously contagious. Come ON people, COMMENT! We gotta get to 300 to guarantee a No-Poof-Winter-Event!
On NAM there is still about a 3 hour window where the 540 thickness line surges north of KC…so still possible we get some sleet mixing in for 2 or 3 hours. If it’s all snow it will be around 10 to 15 inches. North and northwest of KC it will be all snow.
I wonder when Gary will do this promised blog update.
………..POOF……….
The only thing going poof is our dismal snowfall total for the year!
Say it with me Gary……..POOF!
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022000&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=063
the fire made Yahoo news. This storms loos like one for the record books.
How is that storm Sunday/Monday looking?
NAM doesn’t go out far enough, must wait for GFS.
wonder when gary will update
Getting excited about real snow for a change
Soon
Gary is waiting for the blog to hit 300……
We’re there.
looking forward to the update
Getting very excited!
Ray-Pec/Lee’s Summit area has been around 5 to 8 inches…is this going up? With Fire508′s post it seems we are more in the 8 inch range or higher, but I little experience with reading those kinds of maps.
Keep in mind that the KSHB station is located in the Plaza district, they have a lot going on, Gary has his mind focused on more then just one thing, he will update when he can.
Good point.
300
OVER 300!
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! We did it!!!
So now what?
400?
Alrighty then! Gary will be SOOO proud!
I’m so anxious to have the snow begin! Love to watch those big flakes falling. Thundersnow is awesome!
Snow blower was started over the weekend. Just hoping I don’t need it on my roof and just the driveway.
0Z NAM very little change from 18z NAM:
18z
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”
0z
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif”
Oops … wrong link to 18z:
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif”
That’s 6Z now
The first one was 12Z
Does not look good for KC. Only shows about 4″ for Jackson county. I dont buy that map.
Really curious why the NWS hasnt published a WSW yet.
Might as well go for 400.
GFS 18Z was very unimpressive. Still showed the majority of the storm way to the west and not showing the south and east shift that NAM has produced recently.
Gangnam Style this blog!
That was awful….just awful…
This storm is going to go poof!
Anyone else seeing that there is a higher chance of accumulating sleet with the NAM? Looks like more sleet than earlier and about 2-4″ of snow SE of I-35.
Yes. And it’s at the height of the storm. I still see a real potential for sleet to cut down accumulations from KC and south and east. St. Jo looks to be all snow. So somewhere between here and there will be the dividing line. This could still change on later runs, for better or worse.
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_54HR.gif”
latest NAM Sleet Accum. Map shows .5-1″ of sleet
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”
NAM snow map
New blog
I have not been in the middle of thundersnow. That would be a great sight to see/hear.
Bring on some thundersnow.
The flakes are huge and they fall at a fantastic rate during a thunder snow episode.
New at this. Why do the models show the heavy snow area ending east/northeast of KC in Missouri?
Will not the storm continue to track easterly, or northeast and the heavy snow swath would continue on through central Iowa or NW Illinois?
SHAME ON ALL of you!!! We have a disaster going on RIgnt NOW THE LAST 3 HRS in KC a major Fire at the Plaza ?? Do you not have any HUMAN compassion in this???? SHAME SHAME SHAME I am so interested in this storm but REALLY?????????????? I think we need to be worried about the folks that may not have GAS during the next few days when this storm does get here????????
Wow. Aren’t we Holier Than Thou? Are you on the short list to be the next Pope?
are you joking? the snow might help the owner & employees of the restaurant forget about the tragedy if only for a while. the snow will cover the black ashes with a redemptive white blanket…i know, sappy, but i’ve always thought about snow in that way. anyone on here who doesn’t have heat can come over to my house to enjoy the snow with my family. or i’ve got three gas whole-house heaters they could borrow…
snowbird, it absolutely IS a tragedy, and people HAVE mentioned worrying about folks who may be without gas power in that area… if you had read through the posts you would have seen that. But chastising people for not attaching themselves to EVERY TINY NUANCE OF EVERY BIT OF REPEATED INFORMATION on the news channels is just as short sighted as people complaining that they won’t get to see Smash or Smoosh or whatever that show is. People can feel horror over the situation and worry/sympathy for those who may be without as this storm hits AND still remain excited for the possibility of a weather event. They’re not excited people will potentially be cold; they’re excited about the science and its outcomes.
IS ANYONE CONCERNED about the system churning its way into the dry slot (Chihuahuan Desert) down in TX panhandle & Mexico? Any reason for concern? There’s a chunk of air down there with around 10F dew points. Sorry if it’s a dumb question. I want this snow so bad that I feel like a nervous parent during the birth of a child!