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Major Winter Storm Is Taking Aim On Kansas City

Good early morning bloggers,

It appears that the blog is back up and 100% functional today.  And, just in time as a major winter storm is taking aim on Kansas City.  We are currently analyzing the data and we will have an extensive blog ready by around 8 AM.  The overnight data is continuing to look very impressive for high amounts of snow beginning sometime Monday.

Check back in soon.

Gary

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84 comments to Major Winter Storm Is Taking Aim On Kansas City

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    First!

  • Kcchamps

    latest NAM has 16-18″ right through the metro with 12-14″ around that!

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”

    also the new GFS has 12-16″ for the metro

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    The HPC is showing a 40% chance of 12″ of snow. “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#snow” We’ll see what happens, again Gary, I like your approach with snow totals. We should sit back and see what the models are saying. I see where Wichita went ahead and went with a Winter Storm Warning. By tonight (Sun Night), we should definately have a good grip on snow totals as the storm system will be right on our front door.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    By the way Gary, great job with the snow totals for the last blizzard, that 10-15″ was spot on. I was very impressed and I told quite a few people that I know that Gary Lezak nailed it when it came to forecasting that! :)

  • HeatMiser

    WSW for Lawrence for 10-13 inches of snow.

  • thundercolt

    The blog should set a record today and tomorrow as long as it doesnt crash!
    I’m generally concerned with the warm air wrapping up into this storm with it diving so far south through okla and texas could prolong the precip change over Monday night

  • McCabe58

    Oh wow, that latest model puts me in the 18-20″ range!!! Won’t hold my breath. Still think something is going to go wrong.

  • HeatMiser

    Wow, KU should be closed again for two more days I’m guessing…unprecedented.

  • HeatMiser

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
    WARNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS…WHICH IS IN
    EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
    WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

    * TIMING…A MIXTURE OF RAIN…FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
    TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW
    WOULD OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO
    HEAVY SNOW TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
    GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

    * TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS…THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
    SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 13 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
    OF INTERSTATE 70. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES NORTH
    OF INTERSTATE 70…HOWEVER THE ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE
    INTERSTATE COULD TAKE BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS TO ACCUMULATE.
    SOME AREAS COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE DUE TO
    FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

    * WINDS…NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
    35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

    * IMPACTS…SNOW AND ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
    CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
    WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE REDUCED
    VISIBILITY AND PERHAPS NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.

  • thundercolt

    What is Blizzard criteria? 40mph plus? winds or 50mph ? 1/4mile vis for half hour or hour?

  • weatherfreaker

    So Thundercolt are you saying you think it would just be rain? Freezing rain?

  • HeatMiser

    Sustained winds of 35 for at least three hours. Accuweather still calling this a blizzard. I’m thinking they might upgrade WSW to Blizzard Warning at some point, if the winds turn out to be fast enough.

  • Freeze Miser

    Well, well, well….looks like the party is back in business here on the blog.

    I’d really like to get a full day (safely) in on Monday at school teaching even if I have to cancel my after school kids. I’m anxious to read Gary’s update this morning.

  • thundercolt

    I agree Freeze looking forward to Gary’s right up most accurate in town! Joe gets close to over at fox had to jump ship last night and check his blog it was cool, but ready for 41 to be back up you all crack me up on here!

  • Freeze Miser

    Maybe it’s because I switched to decaf, but I need help thinking through what I am reading on the NWS forecast discussion page. It has to do with time Zulu (UTC). Right now we are coming up on 12 zulu (6:00 AM CST). The NWS says the precipitation will begin after 00 zulu and continue into Monday afternoon.

    This is what I don’t get. 00 zulu Monday would be 6:00 PM CST wouldn’t it? I consider that already evening. Am I getting this mixed up somehow?

  • craigmac

    NWS forecast as of now. “forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=147&map.y=157&site=eax&zmx=1&zmy=1″

    Between 6″ to over a foot

    WSWarning soon to come. It is only two counties away from Jackson Co. MO.

  • Twistersis

    I hope this blog is back in business…I just submitted a comment and got the error code in response. It’s a full moon, too so everything’s bound to be a little bit wacky for a few days. That’s my excuse anyway, and I’m sticking to it.

  • yewtrees

    “The NWS said light rain or snow showers will develop early Monday morning and intensify into midday, with snow accumulating from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

    Snowfall will be the heaviest late Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. Accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected, with higher amounts in some pockets.”

  • Freeze Miser

    Yewtrees….who are you quoting?

  • hippygoth

    What I’m reading seems to imply a slower accumulation event that what we had last Thursday (what 8″ in 4 hours?)

    Besides the issue of where to put the snow, I’d hope a longer event would give the plow drivers an easier time of it.

    H.

  • yewtrees

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

    “The most intense snowfall rates will occur from late Monday evening through Tuesday morning, then will taper off on later in the day Tuesday. Widespread snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected across much of the area, with locally higher amounts likely.”

    • hippygoth

      That’s still slower than 4 hours. :) Hopefully Mother Nature will play nice and wait for the evening rush hour to complete before getting down right mean. :)

      H.

  • happyrock

    I’ve been reading this blog for years. Thought I’d join the discussion. I hope we can get a half day of school in tomorrow, and then go home early. I love to look at snow, but hate to drive in it.

  • stl78

    The blog is functional, yes. 100%, no. I’m still amazed that two blockbuster storms have targeted our area!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    latest 6z GFS snow map

  • kellyinkc

    yeah, blog is working! No Warning yet for KC? I am surprised. IT looks like we will get blasted again.

  • Allollie

    I keep getting error’s when trying to get on this blog….I hope it isn’t going to crash, again!

  • HeatMiser

    I hate to have to tell your brother, but the WSW for Lawrence starts at 6:00 am on Monday, which means the one in KC will probably start fairly early also. My guess is that schools will be closed Monday and Tuesday this week, minimum.

    • Freeze Miser

      No way, HM, I bet we have school at least half a day tomorrow and probably all day. I teach in eastern Jackson County.

      I’ve been wrong before though.

  • HeatMiser

    Very curious to see Gary’s snowfall projections. WSW for last storm said 8-12 inches for our area and then Gary predicted 10-15 inches. So if we up it the same for this storm, WSW says 10-13 so will Gary predict 12-17?

    • Bananny

      Another station just said we would get 9.3 inches and we would be near blizzard conditions especially on Tuesday morning

  • kellyinkc

    I may be spending the night at work……
    Fueling the snowblower and going to get more gas. Anybody been to the store? When I was at Walmart it was really low on product.

    • Bananny

      I went to Walmart yesterday. Shelves weren’t full but they still had plenty of essentials-Wine and toliet paper. Seriously they did have plenty at the store. Staff was stocking as quickly as possible.

  • HeatMiser

    getting error again for first time…grrrr

  • getting error this morning.. can’t believe traffic is mega bad at 7:19am in the morning.. the blog is busy, but can not believe that traffic is causing this problem.

  • kellyinkc

    error for me just now too……

  • HeatMiser

    OMG…BLOG IS SCREWED UP AGAIN!!!! AUUUGHH!!!! STOMP STOMP STOMP SLAM!!!! NO, I’M NOT COMING OUTTA MY ROOM! NO! GO AWAY!

  • Allollie

    They better get a new server….fast!!!!

  • HeatMiser

    This storm is gonna be worse even is snowfall potential is comparable because of blowing and drifting. Even if it doesn’t end up an “official” blizzard, blizzard like conditions will be possible Monday night.

  • kiminpv

    Gary gets no credit for any forecast on this storm. We are less than 36 hours out and we’ve yet to see a single snowfall map or prediction. Unbelievable.

  • Allollie

    I think he waiting to see where the low tracks.

  • Allollie

    This blog is SOOO CRASHING!!!!!

  • HeatMiser

    Yeah, I’ve noticed he’s been extra tentative on this one. At least at eight he is going to get detailed – I think!

  • lvksguy

    Hopefully they get the blog working correctly soon, took me 4 refreshes to load it. This place is like a lifeline when the weather gets bad. Blog issues aside, hats off to Gary and team on doing a spectacular job. Reminds me of the old Bond theme “Nobody does it better”.

  • weather

    Heatmiser I think you are addicted to he blog :)

  • weatherkcmo

    They would be insane to have a full day tomorrow.

    • happyrock

      I agree! My school district, North KC, has made us stay all day many times in the past when it has started getting bad by noon. They say it’s too late by then to make the call. But because they know it is coming, they should call for a half day right from the get go. They should let us know TODAY that we’ll have early release tomorrow. Just makes sense to me.

      • JPKC24

        I work for NKC as well, and I seriously doubt anything is changed tomorrow. I would almost guarantee we have a full day. It may not get bad til about 4 or 5 tomorrow afternoon.

  • HeatMiser

    I bet you five bucks we get upgraded to Blizzard Warning later on. Here is Hazardous Weather Outlooks for Lawrence:

    A WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
    NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MIXTURE
    OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MIXTURE
    WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
    LATE SUNDAY NIGHT…AND THE MIXTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ALL
    SNOW ON MONDAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
    LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
    HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 13 INCHES APPEAR
    POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NORTH OF
    INTERSTATE 70 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES.

    STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
    LIKELY CAUSE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS…MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT
    ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

  • Freeze Miser

    This is a bump for a previous question.

    If the NWS says precipitation will start at 00 zulu (and that’s 6:00 PM CST), why would they then say the precipitation will continue into the afternoon. Does the NWS really mean 12:00 zulu (6:00 AM CST)?

  • weather

    Blog Crashing

  • HeatMiser

    I dunno, but the WSW says it starts Sunday night for our area and there could already be an inch or two on the ground by Monday morning.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Freeze I think there will be some disturbance flows out in front starting this evening. Possibility of rain snow showers. They would be light and not the main storm starting in Monday late afternoon evening.

  • Allollie

    I guess the server isn’t going to work, again! I know they have had plenty of time to fix it. I guess they are just trying to duck tape it!!!! THE DUCK TAPE HASN’T WORKED!!!!!

  • HeatMiser

    They will close all the schools again Monday and Tuesday.

  • weatherkcmo

    The duct tape is working for me.

  • Allollie

    They will have to close down the blog, too! I think till the storm passes!!

  • Kole Christian

    Half day Monday

    • Bananny

      I agree. I missed 2 days last week (2 day because the battery in my car died). I have to go to work tomorrow!

  • mban112

    I am deeply desirous of another heavy, blizzard-type storm. Bring it!

  • Allollie

    Just wait for a sec….. weatherkcmo

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    Glad I can get on here again today! I couldn’t at all yesterday. It sounds like people are starting to have some problems though again today too. Please no!!!!

    Can’t wait for some new info on the storm!

  • weatherkcmo

    Some parents cant pick their kids up at noon. They have these things called jobs. They can’t just pick up their kids whenever the school deems it necessary. It is a close call though.

    • happyrock

      We have half days several times a year, usually for staff development in the afternoon. Parents manage because they know in advance and can make arrangements. That’s why I think schools should decide today and let parents know.

  • HeatMiser

    It’s after eight. Me want new blog!

  • Freeze Miser

    Arggggh

    Jeff, just give us the snow total forecast.

  • weatherkcmo

    HeatMiser, it’s all your fault!

  • weatherkcmo

    Exactly, I agree. Seems like a lot of times they wait until everyone is in school to call it a day and it puts parents in a bad situation.

  • EagleBeak

    We’ve limited out on snow this month.
    We are just one month away from the beginning Crappie fishing – warm sun on my face and cool breeze blowing across the crappie bed red and white bobber gently floating on the surface reflecting the early spring sunsh…..WAIT! bobbers gone…Set the hook! Set the hook!