Good early morning bloggers,
It appears that the blog is back up and 100% functional today. And, just in time as a major winter storm is taking aim on Kansas City. We are currently analyzing the data and we will have an extensive blog ready by around 8 AM. The overnight data is continuing to look very impressive for high amounts of snow beginning sometime Monday.
Check back in soon.
Gary
First!
^lol…
latest NAM has 16-18″ right through the metro with 12-14″ around that!
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”
also the new GFS has 12-16″ for the metro
champs, That NAM Map shows KC with 20+ inches. WOW!
The HPC is showing a 40% chance of 12″ of snow. “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#snow” We’ll see what happens, again Gary, I like your approach with snow totals. We should sit back and see what the models are saying. I see where Wichita went ahead and went with a Winter Storm Warning. By tonight (Sun Night), we should definately have a good grip on snow totals as the storm system will be right on our front door.
By the way Gary, great job with the snow totals for the last blizzard, that 10-15″ was spot on. I was very impressed and I told quite a few people that I know that Gary Lezak nailed it when it came to forecasting that!
That last storm wasn’t a blizzard.
WSW for Lawrence for 10-13 inches of snow.
The blog should set a record today and tomorrow as long as it doesnt crash!
I’m generally concerned with the warm air wrapping up into this storm with it diving so far south through okla and texas could prolong the precip change over Monday night
Oh wow, that latest model puts me in the 18-20″ range!!! Won’t hold my breath. Still think something is going to go wrong.
Wow, KU should be closed again for two more days I’m guessing…unprecedented.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING…A MIXTURE OF RAIN…FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW
WOULD OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.
* TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS…THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 13 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70…HOWEVER THE ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE COULD TAKE BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS TO ACCUMULATE.
SOME AREAS COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE DUE TO
FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* WINDS…NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…SNOW AND ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND PERHAPS NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.
YOWSAH!
What is Blizzard criteria? 40mph plus? winds or 50mph ? 1/4mile vis for half hour or hour?
Go to here to read what a blizzard is “www.ussartf.org/blizzards.htm”
So Thundercolt are you saying you think it would just be rain? Freezing rain?
Thinking totals east of stateline dropoff big time with warmer air streaming north
no just worried about it cutting our snowfall totals from about stateline east dramaticaly
Sustained winds of 35 for at least three hours. Accuweather still calling this a blizzard. I’m thinking they might upgrade WSW to Blizzard Warning at some point, if the winds turn out to be fast enough.
Well, well, well….looks like the party is back in business here on the blog.
I’d really like to get a full day (safely) in on Monday at school teaching even if I have to cancel my after school kids. I’m anxious to read Gary’s update this morning.
I agree Freeze looking forward to Gary’s right up most accurate in town! Joe gets close to over at fox had to jump ship last night and check his blog it was cool, but ready for 41 to be back up you all crack me up on here!
Maybe it’s because I switched to decaf, but I need help thinking through what I am reading on the NWS forecast discussion page. It has to do with time Zulu (UTC). Right now we are coming up on 12 zulu (6:00 AM CST). The NWS says the precipitation will begin after 00 zulu and continue into Monday afternoon.
This is what I don’t get. 00 zulu Monday would be 6:00 PM CST wouldn’t it? I consider that already evening. Am I getting this mixed up somehow?
NWS forecast as of now. “forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=147&map.y=157&site=eax&zmx=1&zmy=1″
Between 6″ to over a foot
WSWarning soon to come. It is only two counties away from Jackson Co. MO.
I hope this blog is back in business…I just submitted a comment and got the error code in response. It’s a full moon, too so everything’s bound to be a little bit wacky for a few days. That’s my excuse anyway, and I’m sticking to it.
“The NWS said light rain or snow showers will develop early Monday morning and intensify into midday, with snow accumulating from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.
Snowfall will be the heaviest late Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. Accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected, with higher amounts in some pockets.”
Yewtrees….who are you quoting?
Freeze Miser. The source is from the Kansas City Star.
Thanks.
What I’m reading seems to imply a slower accumulation event that what we had last Thursday (what 8″ in 4 hours?)
Besides the issue of where to put the snow, I’d hope a longer event would give the plow drivers an easier time of it.
H.
“http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”
“The most intense snowfall rates will occur from late Monday evening through Tuesday morning, then will taper off on later in the day Tuesday. Widespread snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected across much of the area, with locally higher amounts likely.”
That’s still slower than 4 hours.
Hopefully Mother Nature will play nice and wait for the evening rush hour to complete before getting down right mean. 
H.
I’ve been reading this blog for years. Thought I’d join the discussion. I hope we can get a half day of school in tomorrow, and then go home early. I love to look at snow, but hate to drive in it.
The blog is functional, yes. 100%, no. I’m still amazed that two blockbuster storms have targeted our area!
“http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
latest 6z GFS snow map
If that pans out, we’ll still be digging come April.
H.
I like that gradient of 2-18″ inside one county. You could walk down the street and they would have more snow.
Now that would be pretty neat. If that big snow is on a hill, sledders paradise.
H.
yeah, blog is working! No Warning yet for KC? I am surprised. IT looks like we will get blasted again.
I keep getting error’s when trying to get on this blog….I hope it isn’t going to crash, again!
I hate to have to tell your brother, but the WSW for Lawrence starts at 6:00 am on Monday, which means the one in KC will probably start fairly early also. My guess is that schools will be closed Monday and Tuesday this week, minimum.
No way, HM, I bet we have school at least half a day tomorrow and probably all day. I teach in eastern Jackson County.
I’ve been wrong before though.
Very curious to see Gary’s snowfall projections. WSW for last storm said 8-12 inches for our area and then Gary predicted 10-15 inches. So if we up it the same for this storm, WSW says 10-13 so will Gary predict 12-17?
Another station just said we would get 9.3 inches and we would be near blizzard conditions especially on Tuesday morning
I may be spending the night at work……
Fueling the snowblower and going to get more gas. Anybody been to the store? When I was at Walmart it was really low on product.
I went to Walmart yesterday. Shelves weren’t full but they still had plenty of essentials-Wine and toliet paper. Seriously they did have plenty at the store. Staff was stocking as quickly as possible.
getting error again for first time…grrrr
getting error this morning.. can’t believe traffic is mega bad at 7:19am in the morning.. the blog is busy, but can not believe that traffic is causing this problem.
error for me just now too……
OMG…BLOG IS SCREWED UP AGAIN!!!! AUUUGHH!!!! STOMP STOMP STOMP SLAM!!!! NO, I’M NOT COMING OUTTA MY ROOM! NO! GO AWAY!
They better get a new server….fast!!!!
This storm is gonna be worse even is snowfall potential is comparable because of blowing and drifting. Even if it doesn’t end up an “official” blizzard, blizzard like conditions will be possible Monday night.
Gary gets no credit for any forecast on this storm. We are less than 36 hours out and we’ve yet to see a single snowfall map or prediction. Unbelievable.
I think he waiting to see where the low tracks.
This blog is SOOO CRASHING!!!!!
Yeah, I’ve noticed he’s been extra tentative on this one. At least at eight he is going to get detailed – I think!
Hopefully they get the blog working correctly soon, took me 4 refreshes to load it. This place is like a lifeline when the weather gets bad. Blog issues aside, hats off to Gary and team on doing a spectacular job. Reminds me of the old Bond theme “Nobody does it better”.
Heatmiser I think you are addicted to he blog
HOW DARE YOU! STOMP STOMP SLAM! NO, I’M NOT COMMIN’ OUT OF MY ROOM THIS TIME! NO, GO AWAY!
They would be insane to have a full day tomorrow.
I agree! My school district, North KC, has made us stay all day many times in the past when it has started getting bad by noon. They say it’s too late by then to make the call. But because they know it is coming, they should call for a half day right from the get go. They should let us know TODAY that we’ll have early release tomorrow. Just makes sense to me.
I work for NKC as well, and I seriously doubt anything is changed tomorrow. I would almost guarantee we have a full day. It may not get bad til about 4 or 5 tomorrow afternoon.
I bet you five bucks we get upgraded to Blizzard Warning later on. Here is Hazardous Weather Outlooks for Lawrence:
A WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MIXTURE
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MIXTURE
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT…AND THE MIXTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ALL
SNOW ON MONDAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 13 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES.
STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
LIKELY CAUSE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS…MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
This is a bump for a previous question.
If the NWS says precipitation will start at 00 zulu (and that’s 6:00 PM CST), why would they then say the precipitation will continue into the afternoon. Does the NWS really mean 12:00 zulu (6:00 AM CST)?
Blog Crashing
I dunno, but the WSW says it starts Sunday night for our area and there could already be an inch or two on the ground by Monday morning.
Freeze I think there will be some disturbance flows out in front starting this evening. Possibility of rain snow showers. They would be light and not the main storm starting in Monday late afternoon evening.
I guess the server isn’t going to work, again! I know they have had plenty of time to fix it. I guess they are just trying to duck tape it!!!! THE DUCK TAPE HASN’T WORKED!!!!!
They will close all the schools again Monday and Tuesday.
The duct tape is working for me.
They will have to close down the blog, too! I think till the storm passes!!
Half day Monday
I agree. I missed 2 days last week (2 day because the battery in my car died). I have to go to work tomorrow!
I am deeply desirous of another heavy, blizzard-type storm. Bring it!
You shall get your wish!
Just wait for a sec….. weatherkcmo
Glad I can get on here again today! I couldn’t at all yesterday. It sounds like people are starting to have some problems though again today too. Please no!!!!
Can’t wait for some new info on the storm!
Some parents cant pick their kids up at noon. They have these things called jobs. They can’t just pick up their kids whenever the school deems it necessary. It is a close call though.
We have half days several times a year, usually for staff development in the afternoon. Parents manage because they know in advance and can make arrangements. That’s why I think schools should decide today and let parents know.
It’s after eight. Me want new blog!
Arggggh
Jeff, just give us the snow total forecast.
HeatMiser, it’s all your fault!
Exactly, I agree. Seems like a lot of times they wait until everyone is in school to call it a day and it puts parents in a bad situation.
Yes, it does.
We’ve limited out on snow this month.
We are just one month away from the beginning Crappie fishing – warm sun on my face and cool breeze blowing across the crappie bed red and white bobber gently floating on the surface reflecting the early spring sunsh…..WAIT! bobbers gone…Set the hook! Set the hook!