Major outbreak of severe weather expected Tuesday

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Good morning bloggers,

It is the day after one of the worst tornadoes in the world’s history.  And, it is the day before a major severe weather outbreak set-up.  Let’s begin with Joplin, MO.  We were on the air with tornado warnings Sunday afternoon and we saw that massive supercell forming near Parson’s Kansas and it was taking direct aim on Joplin.  What happened next is just horrible as the cell went right through the heart of Joplin and produced a nearly mile wide EF-5 (analysis will be done to determine the strength) tornado killing at least 89 people and leaving 400 with serious injuries.  The tornado that struck Joplin arrived around 5:40 PM Sunday. The official tornado warning was issued at 5:17. Another tornado warning was issued for a different cell at 5:09 PM, so there was around a 31 minute lead time on warning the Joplin area.  For this massive tornadic storm,  The NWS in Springfield named Joplin in a warning issued at 5:17 PM and emphasized it in an instant message to its media and EM partners a few minutes earlier. The approximate 23 minutes of lead time at Joplin is right on the current average for lead time for tornado warnings.  But, it didn’t help much as thi swas likely a strong EF-5 tornado going through a major population center.  I believe that this is the deadliest tornado in Missouri history.  Just a horrible day!

This was just posted by one of the bloggers: Astounding video/audio from the Joplin tornado  Please be aware, this is raw video from a group of around 20 people huddled together in the back of a convenience store.

One of our NBC Action News reporters, Larry Seward, is down in Joplin. Here is a picture he took this morning:

Our next storm system approaching the plains has the potential to produce a major severe weather outbreak with strong to violent tornadoes across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and evening. The risk appears that it will initially be west of Kansas City, but it would arrive sometime Tuesday night.  Here is one surface forecast from the GFS model valid at 1 AM Tuesday night/Wednesday morning:

This shows the thunderstorms arriving in our area by around 10 or 11 PM tomorrow night. The energy in the atmosphere appears that it will be ideal for strong supercell thunderstorm formation closer to the dry line and triple point Tuesday. These features will likely be well west of our area and this may protect us from the worst this storm has to offer. But, we have to pay very close attention to how this sets up tomorrow.   The Storm Prediction Center has place a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into southwest Missouri for tomorrow.  I am confident that this will be upgraded to a high risk sometime Tuesday. The strongest risk may stay just south of Kansas City, depending on how much warm air can return this far north.  This storm is very strong and placed in the peak of tornado season, during a season that has already produced horrific results around the nation. 

When you look at the surface map, above, you can see the light brown line which is the dry line. The red line is a warm front and this is located right near Kansas City.  The blue line is a cold front, and the blue dashed line is a trough extending northwest into the colder air.  The L is the center of the low pressure area that is what we call the triple point where the other features wind together.  This is a rather impressive surface set-up for late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then also on Wednesday as it passes by with a second severe weather outbreak possible.

Our weather team will be analyzing the data and going over all of the details in our in-depth weathercasts today and tonight on NBC Action News.  Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather blog today.  Let us know if you have any questions.  Have a great start to your week.


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  1. This weekend has been horrific. Reading, KS and now a big place like Joplin. I feel awful for all the victims.

    But it does raise concern for tomorrow and your prog of a high risk. Is this for the actual metro or farther out areas? What’s the timing of storms Tuesday? What’s going into your forecast that I’m not seeing yet on the SPC?

  2. I’m ready for calm summer days. I love storms but this season the big ones seem to be striking population centers. It’s a bit unsettling.

  3. I called the Highway Patrol in Springfield and offered the other camper we had and they took my name and number but have not heard back. It is horrible the widespread damage and loss of life down there.


    • Ed, my guess is there are many others who have offered their services as you have and right now they may not need them. One thing I can say is during times of travesty, we band together and really come through. Just another reason why I think we live in the greatest nation on earth.

      • Ed,

        I wish I could agree with you. However looting (an almost unique American behavior) proves otherwise, some amazing heroes for sure in Joplin last evening but also the ugly side of human nature there as well.


  4. From a bulletin:
    “Please DO NOT SELF DEPLOY to Joplin. They’re using their emergency response plan that is in place & it is working. They cannot manage spontaneous volunteers at this time.
    Please call 2-1-1 800.427.4626 if you want to volunteer & they will provide a coordinated effort to manage volunteers.”

    • That’s the problem when things like this happen, it may seem like people just wanting to help but what really happens is a bunch of wannabee emergency people and other assorted weirdos start showing up in droves

    • Bob that’s why I called last night. Our old pop up which is still in great shape sleeps 6 and it has water and A/C. I figured they could use places to sleep so that’s why I offered. I also offered my truck since it is a F250 diesel and can haul up to 15-16 thousand pounds. If they call I wll go! Have a good day!!


  5. It would appear as it looks this moring that the really severe stuff will be to our south again and it looks like Joplin could be in the middle of it again. let’s hope it shifts north a little bit so that Joplin can get spared!


      • Ditto. I’m sure for many like me, this is the first time I’ve ever heard what a tornado sounds like. I don’t really know what to say except god bless all those people (and all those in Joplin) and those brave young men who stayed calm and kept everyone else calm. How terribly scary – especially for the children.

  6. Gary,
    I disagree with your EF-5 estimate. Too much debris laying around. The center of the destruction swath from an F-5 usually has been scoured free of debris. This looks more like what an F-3or4 debris field looks like. This was an awful storm to be sure, but thank goodness it wasn’t worse.

    • Fred i respectfully disagree. I think it was for sure an EF5. I think the reason there is so much debris laying around is because it went thru a very highly popualted area with lots of homes and large business structures. Looking at trees with bark stripped off I think we will hear that winds were at 200 MPH or even maybe a little bit more. Have a good day!!

      • 200 mph would put it in the Ef-3 range. Anyway, it really doesn’t matter as it was devistating. It looks nothing like the debris from the F-5 Moore tornado a while back, where there were huge areas with no debris at all, the houses and buildings were just gone.

    • Fred, that’s fine. We will know after there is an analysis. I am expecting it to be rated EF-5, but obviously not the entire width of the tornado.

  7. All of that stuff laying around is going ot get blown all over the place! Hopefully it will go thru fast and people have some type of cover from the flying debris!


  8. I saw that last night when it was live and all I could think about was this is a reporter who has seen this kind of tornado damage before and he was higly upset I knew it was real real bad. He had not seen anything like this type of damage so it must of been a very powerfull tornado. I am curious to see if this may be up there with some of the strongest on record.


  9. I love Kansas City, but every Spring I worry. Seeing Joplin is so sad and scary. Gary, if an Ef4 or Ef5 were to hit us would you survive in your basement? Is that sort of tornado impossible to survive? If we are ever faced with a tornado on the ground would you tell people neighborhoods or streets that were in the path? Would you have ability to track it on that level? I worry because everyone is so immune to warnings around here. Most people I know continue with what they are doing and don’t take cover. The other night I even contemplated not waking my child and going to the basement. I saw cities in the path shown, but not streets or neighborhoods. Prayers for everyone impacted this weekend. :(

  10. I am very nervous for tomorrow…it just has been feeling like we went from boring weather to death and destruction in the span of a week. The hodographs are awfully bad (good for tornadoes). Very, very concerned. And just the pattern we have been in makes me VERY nervous.

    • I agree. I think it is going to be a major outbreak of strong tornadoes. If the current mapping stays as it is going to be to our south and Joplin will be right in the path again!

      If it does happen I hope the idiot storm chaser that was on the tornadoalleylive deal is not there because all he will care about is trying to make money off his video instead of trying to help people! That guy really pissed me off yesterday!!


  11. Gary,

    I know we can pin it down better tomorrow morning, but are you expecting more of a wind event tomorrow night or tornadoes?

    Also i took a screenshot from the radar on my phone just after the tornado passed joplin. The “Velocity Tilt 1″ show a 57.5 Meters a second wind towards the radar (direction of storm), if i did the math right thats around 128MPH on the velocity..and 22meters a second away, or about 50mph.

    I’m pretty sure most the time we see tornadoes using that its along the lines of 50-70 mph in diffrent directions.. am i right on this or a little off?



  12. radar echo from this current storm down there is impressive. It appears to be feeding off one location in oklahoma…look at animated radar from down in Oklahoma..

  13. Of course it is possible to survive an EF-5 tornado. Many people have. They may be physically and/or psychologically harmed, but they survive.

    • Patrick,

      You really need to be below ground level! A basement is essential or a storm shelter to survive an EF5. 99% of tornadoes are not nearly that strong. Only 1% are EF4 or EF5 strength.


      • Yes, if I had to endure an EF5 tornado I would very much like to have a basement handy to increase my survival chances. But even in a basement you could be killed by falling debris.

      • What about in an interior bathroom in a large, concrete-reinforced building (such as my workplace?) it’s not below ground, but that’s where they tell us to go…down to a certain floor. When it’s after hours and I’m still at work I go down to the floor where they told us is the designated area and get in a bathroom. Am I safer at home in the basement? I’m I’m at work and go down to the designated floor I don’t have to hear as much going on outside and I just feel safer!

  14. Nam had shifted significant and I mean crazy tornado parameters much further north than when I looked at the past runs. The ehi is the highest I have seen ever. To put it in perspective…Joplin was in a 6 to 9 range…tomorrow has a 12+ bullseye

    • Yes, as expected. It will be a major Kansas risk from the Nebraska border to northern Oklahoma tomorrow. Our risk will likely come overnight. The main risk may shift from a tornado threat to more of a wind damage and hail threat by that time.

    • That is somewhat good news for Joplin. I hope it does shift a little further north so that Joplin would not be in the target zone!

      I would like to challenge the bloggers to donate to the Redcross for Joplin relief. We have donated a $100.00 and please donate what ever you can even if it is only $5.00 it all adds up!!


  15. Today makes another miss for KC North. Amazing how fast that MCS that was in S. Mo. has developed to the north and northeast, but east of KC. If we can just get missed tomorrow night then we’ll be all right.

  16. I think Kansas City will avoid tomorrow’s weather, but I fear for people I know down in Springfield.

  17. I am a seldom poster on the blog here, but I have a question. On the SPC website when you breakdown the probabilities convective outlook, (under the hail tab) for today what do the diagonal dashes mean? If someone could answer this, it would be greatly appreciated.

    • That’s the hatched area. Within those areas there is a higher chance of storms, hail, etc.

      • Along with significant risk, I believe it goes hail above 1.75, winds greater than 70 mph, and ef2-ef5 tornadoes.

  18. All I know is that my Chase will not be very far and it will be too close for comfort. Also the ehi maintains itself through the night…although not as strong. I expect a high risk in the 1230 timeline

    • Not so fast my friend, they didn’t even do that with tuscaloosa. EHI is very scary though.
      Nick From OAX

  19. First off, I HATE night time severe storms. If the power goes out you can’t see where to go or what’s coming.

    Now that the prog is out there for a high risk upgrade it looks like Gary is saying by the time storms make it here we’ll only get severe thunder storms with hail and wind but no tornadoes.

  20. Gfs also shifting warmer air north. It’s just scary…a 50 mile shift north puts us under the gun. I’m just more on pins and needles after the Joplin storm. I don’t want to hear horror stories or see any more devastating scenes

  21. Hatches on SPC convective outlooks mean, depending on which type of severe weather you are looking at:

    Hail: 10% or greater probability of 2 inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
    Tornado: 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
    Wind: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts of 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. 65 knots is about 75 miles per hour.

    • On the day 2 outlook, the hatches lump the probabilities of any of the very severe weather types. They are not broken down by type as they are on the Day 1 outlook.

  22. Gary, your comment on the blog about the Joplin tornado being among the deadliest tornadoes in Missouri history is close. I obtained this from the Joplin Globe website:

    According to the federal Storm Prediction Center, an estimated 255 people were killed when a tornado struck St. Louis on May 27, 1896; an estimated 99 people died from an April 18, 1880, tornado that struck Marshfield; and an estimated 98 people were killed by a tornado hit Poplar Bluff on May 9, 1927.

    Let’s hope the number of fatalities stay where they are. This is one contest where first place is no honor.

  23. Wow what a crazy year it has been and its only May. We just had the 2011 super outbreak at the end of April. There were 3 confirmed EF-5s and a total of 327. 344 fatalities. Get this, one of those EF-5’s had a path length of 132 miles!

    The closest EF-5 I could find to Kansas City was in Topeka in 1966. It gutted the city.

    We have had historical flooding and Louisiana is under water. Some people are saying that the path of the Mississippi river could actually be changing…permanently. I just got an email from a fried of mine down there that had an article talking about Morgan City might have to be relocated, and that the spillway might not be able to be closed because of all the pressure from the water. They also are saying that the Mississippi river could eventually backtrack and salt water would be coming into New Orleans since the lower fresh water flow would not offset the tidal movement of the Gulf. . The big concern is New Orleans gets its drinking water from the Mississippi, and if the river changed and took in water in the future they would be in some serious trouble with no desalinization plant.

    Now, we have the possibility of tomorrow being another devastating event with potentially catastrophic storms.

        • Tried to post a link to NWS article on the 50th anniversary of the Ruskin Heights tornado, but of course it’s “awaiting moderation.”

        • I missed that one then, I googled the images from that tornado, must have been a real beast.

          If an F-5 went through Olathe I cant even imagine…

    • @OlatheMatt, the Atchafalaya River is actually where the Mississippi River is trying to change its course to, but the Army Corps of Engineers prevented it by building the Morganza Spillway due to the economic catastrophe this switch would have brought to Baton Rouge and New Orleans. The Mississippi has shifted its delta several times throughout its history. This is a natural occurrence.

      • Yes, but I was more referring to the failure of the Old River Flood Control Structure. THAT would not be a natural occurrence.

        • It would not be natural now, but if the Corps of Engineers had not interfered, the Mississippi would over time have naturally shifted its course to the Atchafalaya River Basin, leaving New Orleans and Baton Rouge in a swamp with no river running through them.

  24. Gary – I and I think others, would appreciate some perspective on how to read the radar and what is happening to create the radar images happening now in NE Oklahoma. It looks like the town of Nowata, OK is manufacturing all of the storms and also, why is there a line of “billowing” activity headed S.E. from Rogers, AR up to Branson, MO. Most of the storm is headed NE, except for this billowing area headed SE.

  25. The Torcon Values for tomorrow haven’t been released yet.



    From 3pm to 9pm Scattered Strong storms and from 9pm to 2am strong storms for Olathe tomorrow.

    • TMI everywhere or not enough? While I dislike cut and pastes of length as opposed to links, the “isolated tornado” seems odd given they have a mod risk out already for areas south of us. Gary feels we will be upgraded to high, although still not clear if that means the metro since we’re still in slight risk. High risk, mod risk doesn’t mean mostly a chance of high winds and hail. That’s a given with most t-storms.

      In reading the info posted here, I’m confused. Do we sit in the basement tomorrow night or just pull the cars in the garage? High, mod mean tornadoes to me, not mere wind and hail.

      • I would for sure have the cars in the garage and I think in my opinion it is to early to tell about the threat. There is an area that is going to explode and I think that area will be finalized tomorrow. I wouldn’t spend the night in the basement but I would be prepared to go there if needed. I know I have stuff down there already just in case.

        I am usually the one yelling make a prediction and that is true for if it will rain or not. A high tornado risk I think it is better to wait so not to spread pannick. I think by saying there is going to be a chance for a high threat is good for now and then narrow it down as time goes by.


  26. I just stepped outside, overcast. Nothing too crazy. So Olathe should see some rain today? Perhaps scattered?

  27. We are in the moderate risk area for tomorrow now. I strongly agree with Gary that we will see a high risk. It could span a large area since discrete supercells are expected to persist into Missouri well after dark.

  28. Another large concern besides the dryline placement is the warm front placement. It looks to likely be very close to the metro and that will likely be another area prime for tornadic supercells. I hope everyone pays close attention to the situation that is possible for us tomorrow.

  29. From the SPC…

  30. “”

    one of the many reasons for the Moderate risk to be issued for our area.

  31. Can I get a link for the EHI? I found several sites, but want to make sure I am seeing the right information. Thanks for the education.

    • “”

      That had 16.1 on Oklahoma/KS border

  32. Thanks. Trying to learn more. Someone mentioned chasing in Salina, is that going to possibly be on of the high threat areas? My grandma lives in Abilene and I always warn her because I am not sure how much attention she gives the weather.

    • Pretty much I-70 South and Westward to OKC and stateline has the best chance of the high risk area. So yes, Salina will be in the High risk area.

  33. Its bewildering to think how many EF3 and higher Tornadoes we have seen across the country so far this year. Tomorrow will likely add to the growing list unfortunately. I hope Joplin get spared later this afternoon and tomorrow. They have no shelters whatsoever and they are in a moderate risk. This year will go down in history as one of the worst, if not, the worst Tornado years ever. Unbelievable.

  34. Thanks! Wichita might be a good area as well. But It sounds like I can just stay right here in the metro to storm chase! Unfortunately….

    • you could. But since most of the severe weather will be after 8pm. You wont get that much daylight to chase round the metro. You will have to go south and west to get a good chase in.

  35. Numbers, I think it likely will be an after dark threat around here which you dont want to be chasing in. Supercells will likely be widespread along the dryline and points east thru the late afternoon and through the night. Alot of chasers will start along the dryline and chase east towards the Ks/Mo border as well as into Oklahoma. There is a possibility of a dry line bulge surging northeast from south-central Kansas which is showing up on some of the dewpoint forecast maps. I will be targeting the Emporia area southwest to near Wichita as EHI and Helicity values are maxed. It may change a bit tomorrow but that is my target area based on what I am seeing.

  36. This is not completely weather related so please forgive me…

    Project Linus is a really great organization that collects homemade blankets and quilts and passes them out to children who are in the hospital, cancer wards, etc. Well a call just went out… Project Linus is sending a bunch of their blankets slotted for the local hospitals down to Joplin. Then need more blankets to comfort children. So all you crafters out there please help! You can get specifics about sizes etc by going to the project linus website. There are numerous drop off spots for the blankets and I am sure the drop off sites are on their website also. I know that all 4 Missouri Sewing machine Co stores are drop off sites.

    So thanks for indulging me and please help. You can also text and the Red Cross will donate $10 to helping the folks in Joplin.


  37. Of course we have had a friendly, great blog today. then Wildweather88 comes on here and throws his sarcastic remarks around and ruins it. Pitiful.

  38. First negative comment…please refrain from being negative towards other bloggers. It’s against the rules and with the really big severe day tomorrow, I’d appreciate it if you would contribute something positive to the blog.

    • Calikufan…ignore WW88…he/she just wants attention so dont give it. It is amazing that despite the destruction and life loss, people can still be so ridiculous and negative..Be careful over the next few days if you go chasing, Im sure your students want/need their teacher!

    • I agree Cali. It is going to be a wild late afternoon and evening! I just hope people take this very seriously and have a plan!! Please bloggers pass the word to neighbors and co workers friends etc. This is going to be a very serious situation 16-24 hours from now! I usualy do not get worked up when it comes to storms but this is different. I think Joplin elevates it even more because we see what can happen so lets hope it does not happen here and we just get large hail and winds!!

      • I agree Ed…but man oh man. The model consistency and other mets on another forum I read can’t really pinpoint a set-up quite like this before. The newest NAM pins us under EHI of 9+ and a bullseye down west of Ft. Scott.

  39. Horrible, I watched that video link, wow.
    This has been a horrible year for “city tornadoes” hopefully this is the last of that trend for the year.
    I seen that storm on radar last night over Joplin but since the other tornadoes in the area had been rather short lived and small, I didn’t take too much concern, I had no idea.

  40. Being a storm spotter/chaser, I really hope we don’t see a major Tornado outbreak. Normally, I would be eager to get out in the field and get on a Tornadic supercell but I think that this year has been devastating enough as it is. Tomorrow does not look good though at all and looks way too dangerous for me to risk getting out there. I just hope more large cities don’t get hit if this setup comes together as forecasted.

    • Mammatus: I agree. I chose to chase JUST north of Joplin instead of making my headquarters in Joplin today. I am very fortunate I was not part of the news

    • Mammatus you are a chaser and I want your opinion on this. I mentioned this yesterday and today that after the tornado ripped thru Joplin a chaser was on the phone asking how much they would pay for the video. I assume he was talking to a media outlet of some kind. I thought it was pretty low as he should have been out of his car trying to help people. It really pissed me off. What say you? Thanks


      • I know you weren’t talking to me but I’ll give my 2 cents anyways…it is incredibly rude and distasteful. I don’t live off of pictures and videos as you know (school teacher here) but part of the chase is to offer extra help if needed. I still can’t believe that bastard had the audacity to ask for money when people lost everything.

  41. Anything developing for today? Saw we have a decent chance of hail, which has now become a 4 letter word to me after the storm April 3rd. Still getting claim calls from that one.

  42. Wow Mammatus, that is strong coming from you. You’ve made no bones about your love of chasing. That holds some water with me. To be honest, I’m not sure at all I’d want to leave my family tomorrow to chase. I’m hoping we get zip but my nerves are on edge with all the places that have not just had some damage, but the fact towns have been completely wiped out in the last few weeks with these strong storms. The group I go with is going to chase and I can take off tomorrow from work but I just can’t bring myself to do it.

    • What kind of chaser doesn’t go for “the big one” because you are worried. Chasing is inherently dangerous, not that I would know since I’ve never been, but clearly it isn’t as safe as sitting at home. Go chase the big one for all those people who’d like to go but have no outlet, other than to pay bank.

    • I would tend to agree with Mammatus…tomorrow is setting up to be dangerous. There are only a small handful of events I recall having nervous feelings about. Alabama was one of them..and the only one this year. I hope something goes amuck and nothing initiates.

  43. Sportsfreaked, I agree, it ticks me off too. No one should make money off of a disaster. Unfortunately media wants to show the masses footage of devastating events like this so there are those who profit off of that. I do take pictures of storms but I have not made any money selling pics of deveatating storms like that one. Its a slap in the face to those who lost family and friends.

    • Mammatus I must make myself clear I have no problem with people making money off of the videos or pictures but do it AFTER you have helped the people that were obviously in need! It’s one thing when only 10 or 15 homes are damaged and another when a obviuos EF5 destroys miles and miles of a heavily populated area!


    • I suppose the only time it would be okay to ask for the media to pay for the footage is if you were going to donate it to all the victims, otherwise… you’re not a very good soul.

    • Is it really any different if it’s only “10 or 15″ homes instead of a more populated area? I do not think it is, and it certainly wouldn’t be if you were one of those “10 or 15″.

      • I meant by the fact of only 10-15 homes being hit you could clear those of people in a relative short period of time and be able to sell your video rather quickly after the event. So yes it is really different Zazel!

        I personaly don’t think they should be sold at all but it is only worth what people are willing to pay for it! Thanks fo rthe input though. I guess.

  44. Bob, yeah, I love to chase but I am human and Joplin hits too close to home for me. I have friends there and I have no idea if they are alive. The good chasers out there likely feel the same way I do. Alot of sadness for those folks who have nothing now. Its too much like Greensburg, they will rebuild but I can’t imagine how they feel.

  45. Not to distract from discussion of tomorrow’s severe threat, but once again southern Missouri is being inundated by excessive rainfall. Most of the area of SW Mo between Joplin and the Ark state line has had 2.5 to 6 inches of rain today and it keeps coming.

  46. Numbers, I saw that but shear parameters should keep storms supercellular into western Missouri. The Pleasant hill forecast area goes from last row of counties in Kansas to central Missouri so there may be some congealing line segments as the storms pass the Ks/Mo border at some point to validate the hwo. Unless things change quite a bit, the environment well into the night would support discrete cells.

  47. The latest SREF keeps us in a supercell environment thru the midnight hour tomorrow night.

    • Guess I’ll be awake at least until 1 a.m., then. My husband will sleep unconcernedly while I’m a nervous wreck.

  48. how would they figure an EF-4 with the destruction that is being seen down there? It appears it was a rather large swath of everything being flattened..

  49. How in the heck could that not be an EF5. Everything is gone for goodness sake. Where is the initial rating located at? Thanks

  50. NWS Topeka wording for our western counties. Not trying to scare, everyone should be aware of the nightime threat tomorrow night.


      • Go to “” and click on Recently issued Storm Report that is on toward the top of the page.


    • I saw this wording earlier as well. Gave my pops(lives north of Wichita)a call on the way home from work to small talk a bit and give him the heads up that tomorrow could get interesting. Already started to have the “here’s what we do if” talk with the wife tonight.

  51. Nevermind I found the report. It estimated wind speeds at 198 miles an hour. That is only 2 MPH below an EF5. I think it will be raised to an EF5 in my opinion!

    • my understanding is the Enhanced Fujita scale takes damage into consideration.. Maybe gary can bring further light into this.

  52. Their might be some Tornado’s in South Central KS tonight.
    On the KS side of Metro have a 45 percent Chance of seeing Severe Weather tomorrow
    I think some city in the metro tomorrow will get a big one and I think the stations need to get a plan in action for tomorrow meaning ABC/NBC/FOC/CBS/CW/MY Network for the locations who have to cut into National programming to cover the Large Tornado’s.

    • Matt they already have plans and can cut into any thing that is airing national or local. Public safety takes priority over anything that is being broadcasted.

    • Matt could you please try to be responsible with your comments. Saying a city in the metro will get a big one is NOT very responsible. Saying there is going to be a good chance for a tornado tomorrow please be prepared to take cover and have a plan is being responsible!
      Thank you. It does no good to put people in a panick!!




  54. I just hope the tragedies of these storms maybe give people some insight that it CAN happen to them. Nothing worse than to have the mindset it’s all fluff or to not even check on the weather and act accordingly. I know we’ve discussed this before, about people being oblivious to weather, but with tomorrow’s set up I don’t want stupidity and ignorance to cost a life.

    • I agree. I can’t persuade my boyfriend to pay attention to possible severe weather *at all.*

  55. Hi Guys!

    In reference to the offers to head to Joplin if help is needed – I know that right now they are asking that “random” volunteers stay away and understandably so – we don’t want to compete for any available sleeping or shelter situation for the victims or get in the way of search and rescue.

    However, there will soon come a time when we CAN help – say in 2 weeks to a month. Wouldnt it be nice if we organized a relief trip to Joplin – comprised of people who read this blog and we can help with clearing debris and/or rebuilding efforts. It’s going to be an ongoing situation there for a very long time.
    I would be very interested in doing something like this and going with a group of people would be safer.

    I never miss the blog – read every post! Many of you do too – lots of nice, thoughtful people here. Anyone interested? Interested in coordinating?

    • Hey bloggers,

      Thank you for participating in today’s blog. We will go over the latest data tonight at 10 PM on NBC Action News. I may do a quick blog update after the new data starts trickling in.

      • I have a third floor elevated view to the west. Last year was pretty amazing watching the storms come in from that direction. Tomorrow should be amazing.

        • Oh and Gary what I meant to reply to you with in that post was we cant wait till 10 for our new data fix! If you have time of course..

        • I have a ninth floor view. As of now my plan is to stay at work and descend to an interior of a lower floor if a tornado comes.

  56. What is the safest place for apartment complexes? I can see a storm drain I could run into real quick if I had to. Nothing basement level here.

    I have a weather radio so im on top of it! KSHB Action Weather Plus is channel 249 if you have Comcast.

    • Matt know a neighbor on the first floor that you can go to. That is the best place to be! Try to get on the first floor if you can. If you don’t know anyone on the first floor I would introduce myself tonight to them!!


      • I have a feeling power is going to get knocked out in certain areas. Seems like there will be a ton of lightning. Insurance companies are not going to like this one bit with the hail potential. South Olathe got rocked with hail not too long ago and it was not as bad when compared to what this potentially could be.

      • This reminds me years ago when I lived on the ground floor (half built into the ground) of an apartment complex. One night it was going to be “one of those nights” so I knocked on the top floor people’s door and offered them to come down if it got bad. of course, they totally laughed at me and said I must not be from here because there are warnings all the time and pooh, pooh, pooh.

    • The same rules apply for apartments. If you are on a higher floor and you have time I would go down to the lowest floor. If you don’t have time or you are sleeping and get awakened by the sirens, then you can go to the center part and smallest room of your level. A bathroom or a closet would work. And, remember 99% of tornadoes will not destroy your home or apartment.


  57. NWS still saying They are thinking a squall line will form over central/eastern KS and move northeastward.

  58. TORCON for May 24th

    KS south-central – 7
    KS west – 2 to 3
    KS north-central – 4 to 5
    KS southeast – 6
    KS northeast – 4 to 5

  59. Top says tornadoes…eax says squall line. Top has been much more accurate this year.

  60. Can anyone tell me where the NOAA KCMO audio went? I have the old link plugged into my Blackberry Berryweather program and when it wouldn’t connect, I looked on the NOAA web page under audio links and KC wasn’t there anymore.


  61. Thanks everyone for the great information today…It has been educational, and I have enjoyed reading your posts. As you can tell my family and I live in Leavenworth. We just moved here 5 months ago, and this weather has us spastic. Knowledge is good to have.
    My best friend lives in Joplin, and thankfully her and her family made it.
    Everyone be safe…

      • I think the misplaced post has to do with Gary deleting the post by ww88. I have seen it do it before when deer-hunter got deleted. I think those 2 are the only ones out of “place”.

  62. I’m glad you guys are hyping this up like the second coming, it always means nothing will happen.

    • won’t know until the storms fire, but the potential is very much there. It’s better to hype it up if the potential for widespread severe weather is there than to treat it like it doesn’t exist. I was talking with someone at work today about most peoples mindset with tornado warnings…or heck even really strong winds and large hail events….we’re used to taking shelter and waiting to be told it’s ok now and nothing really happening. That lulls people into an I’m safe mindset. How many people just walk down to their basement and kind of mill around when there’s a tornado warning waiting for it to pass, or worse sit in their living room and stare out the window at the storm while watching tv. A wall cloud can turn from wall cloud to an f3 or greater tornado within the matter of a couple of minutes. The deaths this spring in this country warrant hype when it’s called for. It could make people be more aware of the situation and take the right precautions.

      Ok, I’m off my soap box.

      • after over 100 deaths…we need to be ready. I don’t remember a spring that had tornadoes ripping through major towns before like this one. It just puts my nerves on edge. I’m going to spend Memorial Day weekend helping my friend cut down the tree in his living room.

  63. SO the hodographs are UNREAL!!! On the NAM that is. SREF keeps supercells going for a LONG time. Both make a bullseye just south of the city but its pretty darn near too close for comfort.

    • How “just south”? I’m in Belton. Are we talking Harrisonville south? Drexel south? Or south edge of the metro (Grandview, Belton). Or maybe south on the west side of the metro? Olathe, Gardner, etc?

      I’m just very nervous about this, but I don’t have the knowledge to read those charts and so I’m hoping you’ll be able to be a bit more specific. Thanks, calikufan!

  64. I’m sorry but it looks like somebody in KS and so on will get hit with a Tornado but hope not Joplin and that what I meant. Also no Torcon rating tomorrow for East Central KS.

  65. “The greatest threat of tornadic activity Tuesday lies from Oklahoma City to Wichita…”

    After severe thunderstorms and tornadoes damaged parts of the southern Plains over the weekend, another round of devastating tornadoes is on the way for Tuesday.

    Major Tornado Outbreak Tuesday Meteorologists are forecasting that there will be at least 50 tornado reports on Tuesday, many of them across the eastern half of Oklahoma and eastern Kansas.

    The greatest threat of tornadic activity on Tuesday lies in the corridor from Oklahoma City, Okla., to Wichita, Kan., to already hard-hit Joplin, Mo.

    This includes the cities of Dallas, Tex., Topeka, Kan., and Tulsa, Okla.

    These locations have the potential for long-lived and long track tornadoes, hail to the size of baseballs and flash flooding from thunderstorms that develop.

    A strong low pressure system coming out from the Rockies will strengthen across the southern Plains Tuesday, creating ideal conditions for dangerous storms and potential tornadoes.

    Thunderstorms will first erupt during the afternoon hours on Tuesday across central Kansas, central Oklahoma, and north-central Texas. These thunderstorms will quickly turn severe, producing large hail and potentially devastating tornadoes.

    These storms will then track eastward late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night bringing the threat for destructive tornadoes into the Middle Mississippi River Valley for the nighttime hours.

    Residents should be advised that tornadoes that occur at night are the most dangerous due to the simple fact that most people are asleep. Persons are urged to keep tuned to local media outlets during this severe weather outbreak and have a plan of action prepared should severe weather strike.
    I wanted to say lots of area’s in our viewing area might hit by a bad Tornado and no Torcon rating for East Central KS for Tomorrow.

    • TorCon really doesn’t mean too much…I mean Dr. Forbes gave alabama a 10 around noon that day going up from a 6 or 7.

  66. So, KC will be safe from tornadoes? We are out of it? Would Emporia be a good place to chase tomorrow?

    • No I would not say we’re out of it. I’d chase down by Eureka. But all of Eastern Kansas is game.