Quantcast

Major Hurricane Irma Targets Southeast Coast

Good morning bloggers,

Powerful Hurricane Irma continues to track west and as of 7:30 AM Irma was almost directly over St. Martin. St. Martin has a population of around 78,000 people. There is a Dutch side and (Kingdom of the Netherlands) and a French side (French Republic).  Christopher Columbus landed there in 1493 on his voyage.  Today, St. Martin had to have been blasted by Major Hurricane Irma. The winds of Irma are still estimated at nearly 185 mph sustained with wind gusts to well over 200 mph. So, St. Martin has had to received massive damage today.

Stmartin1

Stmartin2

The next target is Puerto Rico. The eye will likely track just north of that larger island, but hurricane force winds will be likely over the entire island.

The National Hurricane Center has adjusted the track farther west to go right over Florida. The trend, however, is for it to be just east of this center track and perhaps staying off the Florida coast.  This track keeps Irma over the water with a good chance that this will remain a Category 5 hurricane.  It will likely fluctuate in strength, and when it makes the turn to the north it will likely weaken slightly.

track

The GFS model has been consistent and taking this farther east track, which I favor right now:

3

This 901 central pressure means, 901 mb (millibars).  901 mb = 26.61″. This is incredibly low pressure.  I put the track to just east of Miami and staying just barely over the water with the best chance for landfall extending from the Georgia coast through the Carolinas and as a Major Hurricane.

Where will the north turn happen? On this map above, valid at 2 PM eastern time, 1 PM central time Saturday, the turn is just happening.  If it waits even six to 12 more hours, then the track from the National Hurricane Center would verify. If it turns just six hours earlier, then it would track farther off shore.  This north turn is of extreme importance to how impacting this will be in Florida and which locations will experience the worst of this Major Hurricane.  Today’s model runs will be closing in on where this turn will occur. The European and Canadian models have trended to where this GFS model is showing now.

Kansas City weather:

It dropped into the upper 40s this morning. Our weather couldn’t be much calmer, so we will continue to monitor this hurricane. Expect a high of 71 degrees today, nearly perfect. It will be raining in Boston today, but likely drying out for the NFL season opener as the Chiefs take on the Super Bowl Champion Patriots tomorrow night.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

 

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

Comments are closed.