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Major Hurricane Harvey Forms: Could It Track Towards Missouri?

Good morning bloggers,

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Hurricane Harvey is becoming a major hurricane in the next few hours.  The conditions are highly favorable for Harvey to become a strong Category 3 storm before landfall which could come tonight. The models continue to slow this system down and stall it near the coast or just inland. What happens from there will be quite interesting for inland areas and coastal locations. Will Harvey move back over water and intensify once again, or will it stay inland and turn north and northeast?  This is about to become a major weather disaster that will likely cause billions of dollars in damage.

Why Will Harvey Stall?

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The main steering currents are way to the north as they should be during this summer month of August. The jet stream is dipping down over the northeastern United States and weak flow is tracking across the central plains. Once you get south of Oklahoma, the steering currents are basically non existent, and this is the main reason for this hurricane to stall.  In fact, what happens over the next five days will keep conditions similar and Harvey would likely just drift around.  The big questions will be: Will Harvey move back southeast and go back over the warm tropical storm generating Gulf of Mexico and where will Harvey turn north and northeast?  Most of the models do stall this system and then some of the models have it starting to track slowly northward towards Missouri.

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This forecast map above shows a model forecast that has the remnants of Hurricane Harvey still strong near the Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas.  It is drifting north one week from today, but about to finally get picked up by the westerly flow.  This is a solution that was not expected yesterday, but it has shown up on the past two model runs. Let’s see what happens today.

Kansas City Weather:

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What happens this weekend needs to be watched near Kansas City. What a week it has been, from the crazy weather on the Total Eclipse of the Sun on Monday, to trying to dodge clouds and thunderstorms just to see the eclipse, to another wild weather day and night that resulted in major flooding in the same spots that got hit in July.  More rain is possible this weekend on Sunday. If you look closely you can see a trough moving across Minnesota and the 582 line tracking across Iowa. The 588 decameter line at this 500 mb level is tracking south and then curves around the hurricane. This almost picked up the hurricane and may be enough of a steering current to push Harvey out over the water again.  But, farther north this creates a diverging flow aloft and the conditions would be favorable for showers and thunderstorms. We are not expecting another flooding event, but more rain tries to concentrate on our area as you can see on this rainfall forecast below:

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This rainfall forecast shows 25″ amounts over Texas and 1/2″ to 1″ amounts near Kansas City.  I am going to the Head for the Cure fundraiser in Corporate Woods, Overland Park, Sunday morning, so hopeful that the rain holds off for a few hours, but that is when the best chance appears to be setting up.  Let’s see what it looks like over the weekend, and I will go over all of this on 41 Action News tonight.

Have a great Friday!  Thank you for sharing and participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Go to Weather2020 and join in the conversa

Gary

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