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LRC MODEL FORECAST FOR MAY

Good morning bloggers,

A strong storm system is going to develop and track across the plains into the upper midwest and Great Lakes states this weekend.  A freeze is possible in Kansas City Sunday morning and then there is a set up for some heavy rain next week.  Let’s begin, however, with our LRC  computer model projection for rain chances in May:

Screen Shot 2019-04-26 at 7.02.20 AM

This computer model projection was created January 15th, after the first two LRC Cycles.  So, this is a 100-day prediction using our proprietary LRC® computer model.  Here is what my take away from what this shows: The second half of May has a much better chance of having a lot more rain than the first half of May.  I looked at the numbers produced, and the model has around 2″ of rain in the first half of May and 5″ of rain in the second half of May. This model does not include any seasonal differences, that have yet to be added to the model.  Remember now, a model is a model, and we have all experienced these models. This is our Weather2020 model and it has done very well in the past couple of years of testing.  My prediction based on what I know about this model and what we know about this year’s LRC is for a wet month of May ahead of us, and a wet June as well.  Rainfall is forecast to be above average, and possibly much above average. Next week is not a big test, as I am expecting and predicting the second half of May to be wetter than the first half.

Now, we aren’t done with April yet.  There is a freeze possible on Sunday morning in the wake of this storm passing by:

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The freeze line on this NAM model forecast does make it to KC Sunday morning.  This would be a late freeze for our area.  Even if the official temperature is above freezing Sunday morning, there likely will be some pockets of freezing or below 32° air over northern Missouri.  We are moving into the part of the LRC that already did produce the coldest temperatures of the year in January, so this is right on schedule as discussed in yesterdays blog.

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A strong surface cyclone will move across northeast Nebraska on Saturday morning. There is around a one hour window for thunderstorms early Saturday morning, and then we will have a dry wind shift to the southwest, then west, and then northwest Saturday afternoon.  The warm sector of a storm is between the cold front and the warm front:

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The warm sector may last long enough to warm KC into the lower 70s Saturday, and then that cold front will blow through.  The cold front is drawn in just ahead of the packing of those thickness lines, the dotted lines.  And, I analyze that to be right over KC around 2 or 3 PM.  Snow is forecast in the blue over northern Iowa into northern Illinois.   After this moves by, the stage will be set for some better chances of rain next week.

Now, once again, the better rain chances and heavy rain potential will likely arrive during the second half of May.  The cooler air spreading in in the wake of this storm will keep severe weather risks low near KC as we are at record calm pace at this moment to start the season (look at yesterdays blog).

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great weekend.  It’s Friday!

Gary

 

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