Good morning bloggers,
We just experienced our coldest morning of this late fall season. The low temperature at KCI Airport was 14°. It will be a little while before it gets this cold again as a very warm early December weather pattern is about to cycle through. Yes, the weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC and we are continuing to identify the main features and the cycle length of this dry weather pattern. It will be dry here, but not everywhere. The northeast coast is near one of the winter storm hot spots that I described in the winter forecast and it is not just a coincidence that New Jersey and much of the northeast is getting affected once again by a strong storm system. Right now it is hard to even imagine a storm like this in our area. Take a look at this morning’s radar image:
Snow, some heavy, is falling across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and extending northeast into Massachusetts and Connecticut. This is one of many storm systems that have already affected this region and it is only the beginning. It is all part of this year’s cycling weather pattern that we call the LRC. It has only been eight days since we issued the winter forecast. I talked about winter storm hot spots, or long term long-wave troughs that will occur often during the winter season:
The northeast coast is being hit again this morning and this storm falls into one of my hi-lighted areas. Kansas City is not near one of these hot spots and for us to have significant winter weather a few things will need to come together perfectly. We would need the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to go into the negative while the LRC cycles through with a storm in the upper midwest hot spot. This would shift the hot spot south, which I am expecting and forecasting will happen a few times this winter.
This next map is the winter precipitation forecast we posted over a week ago:
We are about to have a substantial warming trend that will warm us up to near 70 degrees in the next week or so. The next storm system will affect us sometime mid-next week. In the first cycle of this year’s weather pattern this next storm did produce just under an inch of rain in October, yes we are moving into the second cycle of this year’s LRC. We are still firming up what the cycle length may be, but next week’s storm and this week’s weather pattern is directly related to what happened in the first half of October. We will go into more details in the coming days and weeks, but for now it is dry with a huge warming trend heading our way.
Have a terrific Tuesday. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.