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LRC Hot Spots

Good morning bloggers,

We just experienced our coldest morning of this late fall season.  The low temperature at KCI Airport was 14°.  It will be a little while before it gets this cold again as a very warm early December weather pattern is about to cycle through.  Yes, the weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC and we are continuing to identify the main features and the cycle length of this dry weather pattern.  It will be dry here, but not everywhere. The northeast coast is near one of the winter storm hot spots that I described in the winter forecast and it is not just a coincidence that New Jersey and much of the northeast is getting affected once again by a strong storm system.  Right now it is hard to even imagine a storm like this in our area.  Take a look at this morning’s radar image:

Snow, some heavy, is falling across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and extending northeast into Massachusetts and Connecticut.  This is one of many storm systems that have already affected this region and it is only the beginning. It is all part of this year’s cycling weather pattern that we call the LRC. It has only been eight days since we issued the winter forecast. I talked about winter storm hot spots, or long term long-wave troughs that will occur often during the winter season:

The northeast coast is being hit again this morning and this storm falls into one of my hi-lighted areas.  Kansas City is not near one of these hot spots and for us to have significant winter weather a few things will need to come together perfectly.  We would need the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to go into the negative while the LRC cycles through with a storm in the upper midwest hot spot. This would shift the hot spot south, which I am expecting and forecasting will happen a few times this winter.

This next map is the winter precipitation forecast we posted over a week ago:

We are about to have a substantial warming trend that will warm us up to near 70 degrees in the next week or so. The next storm system will affect us sometime mid-next week. In the first cycle of this year’s weather pattern this next storm did produce just under an inch of rain in October, yes we are moving into the second cycle of this year’s LRC. We are still firming up what the cycle length may be, but next week’s storm and this week’s weather pattern is directly related to what happened in the first half of October.  We will go into more details in the coming days and weeks, but for now it is dry with a huge warming trend heading our way.

Have a terrific Tuesday. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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27 comments to LRC Hot Spots

  • windyinmarshallmo

    I predict Christmas day forecast High 65 degrees sunny and no snowflakes in sight. :-(

  • mowermike

    The weekly update from the ECMWF has the middle of the US very warm for the next month. This model has been very accurate so far this fall and was very accurate last winter.

    Weather team, per the models, could 75 be doable Sunday through Tuesday? Hard to time out clouds this time of year that might mess up the day time heating.

    • Don,t go there Miky…Remember what the KFC forecasted 7-9 days out using the EURO a couple of weeks ago(Heavy snow)…YOU had a field day(s) with that one….YOU have no business forecasting, for a lawn boy…Have a good 1 :)

    • Mike, I have 71 right now for Monday. I wanted to go 74 but its east to adjust a little upward from here. I think 71 is a good trend for this morning. Gary may up it this afternoon.

      Brett

    • mukustink

      Mike let’s see some proof of the accuracy of your models! You are in love with those models, is your mom jealous that you love the models more then her?

      • mowermike

        MUK,

        Come down to my office and we can discuss. Don’t want to mess the blog up with all kinds of “cutting and pasting”.

        Thanks for the response Brett!!

  • Fred Souder

    Last year your forecast based on the LRC, AOI, ENSO, and other factors did not verify well. This year, so far at least, it has been good, again based on the LRC, AOI, ENSO, and these “other factors”.
    This begs the question: What are these mysterious “other factors” that the finest meteorological minds employ to make their long term forecasts? Maybe it is the same that I use to come up with my Date for the first inch of snow.

    1. Magic 8 Ball
    2. Brett’s Squirrels
    3. Chicken Entrails and knuckle bones.
    4. 1-800-ASK-CLEO
    5. Ouija Board

    Do you use any/all of these?

    • Explain, HOW it,s been good Fred???

      • Fred Souder

        Hey, It has been good thus far. The general position of storm tracks and temperature has been in the ball park of GL’s predictions. Now, if it continues past 1 month then I’ll be impressed, but I am the big skeptic here. I don’t buy anyone’s forecast past a couple weeks unless they sell their product to shipping companies and farmers.
        Anyway, tush, it has only been one week (plus another week if the models verify), but you have to admit it is correct thus far :)

        • What I think I,m saying(?)is, don,t count your CHICKENS,before have hatched….Remember in the election,,,Michele Bachmann,and I try not to,won the Straw Poll in Iowa….How did that turn out ????????? ;)

    • Fred,

      No, I don’t use any of those, LOL! Anyway, this pattern is now coming into focus. I do believe there will be a significant stretch of winter weather after this significant warm spell. We will need the upper midwest/Great Lakes hot spot to shift south at times, as we have predicted it will. One of those times will likely happen this month, and then in the next cycle as well.

      Gary

  • KUweatherman

    Because of this forecast, we will now have a 30″ snowfall total winter. Thanks, Gary! ;)

  • Gary, What is the forecast for New Years Eve, according to the LRC(rain,snow,no prec.&temp.) ??? Also, will that rodent in Pennsylvania see its shadow Feb.2 ???

    • Based on my initial analysis, there should be a significant storm system near by around the first few days of the year. But, I am still a bit uncertain as to the cycle length.

  • Jerry

    Gary,

    What do the percentages mean on your “hot spots” map?

    • Jerry,

      I just meant them to be the dominant features of this year’s pattern, and the eastern trough will be the one that occurs most often, like we are seeing this morning. I may have had the western hot spot too low, not sure yet.

  • dogsinkc

    Gary, if the Arctic Oscillation is going into a very negative phase and it’s STILL this warm – God help us all.

    I’ve been hearing that the second week of December is supposed to get more cold and stormy- but wasn’t everyone saying the last week of November was supposed to be like that?

  • mukustink

    Gary I thought you knew the length of the cycle by now? What is the length of the the cycle this year? What does Andy do for a living? Is he in the weather business as well? Have a good one!

  • f00dl3

    Got to give Gary credit for being awesome at marketing. Never fails, I turn in to 41 at 10 PM and there’s always “but there’s a exciting change in the weather pattern showing up” or “Drought in the Heartland day X” or some other catchy new thing. Always bringing the positive out of even the most boring weather stretches to try to get more viewers – nothing wrong with that, really.

    Latest GFS really awesome for wishcasters – like 2-3″ of precip all snow showing up in the extended range.

    • So, should I go into the day 10 to 15 period. I may tonight. I do have confidence in it turning cold enough to snow during that stretch, but we will need that storm to dig harder! And, remember….I grew up in Southern California where when we had a cloud it was exciting to me. We had very, very long stretches of boring weather, but I didn’t know any better, if that makes sense.

      • Weatherfreak01

        Gary,
        I too grew up in SoCal, so it makes total sense to me. When we used to get a tstorm I used to stay up all night to watch it because it was such a rare occurance.