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Looking Into The Mid-Week Storm

Good morning bloggers

Severe weather season is now underway and we just had an active two days. Take a look at the severe weather reports from Saturday and Sunday:

190413_rpts

yesterday_filtered

There were 33 tornado reports Saturday and then 2 yesterday with mostly wind damage reports on Sunday.  Another storm is approaching and there will be surge of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico:

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60°+ dew points are going to surge into eastern and central Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday. The main surface storm is more likely going to form over western Oklahoma with a dry line moving out over southwestern Oklahoma. This will lead to a higher severe weather risk south of KC.  For Kansas City, thunderstorms are likely in this set up with a slight risk of severe weather, and again the main risk will more likely be farther south.  Let’s see how the models trend today. Here is the look from the SPC:

day3otlk_0730

From The SPC:  As low-level moisture spreads gradually northward on southerly flow
   ahead of the advancing storm system, steep lapse rates associated
   with eastward advection of an elevated mixed layer will result in
   development of a moderately unstable but capped warm sector.  

   Capping should hinder convective development -- particularly over
   the southern Plains -- until late afternoon, but expect storms to
   eventually develop along the cold front, and southward along an
   eastward-mixing dryline as ascent increases in advance of the
   strengthening upper system.

   With flow aloft forecast to gradually strengthen as the trough
   advances, shear sufficient for supercells will reside across much of
   the area by afternoon.  As such, developing storms will likely
   become quickly severe given the degree of CAPE expected, with very
   large hail likely to be the primary severe risk.  Greatest risk for
   the largest hail appears to exist across the southern Plains, near
   the axis of steepest lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed
   layer advecting northeastward from northern Mexico/New Mexico. 
   Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally, and a tornado or
   two cannot be ruled out.  Convection will continue overnight --
   spreading eastward toward the Mississippi River, but severe risk
   should gradually diminish overnight.

Expect a big warm up the next two days.  We will narrow in on these risks later today into Tuesday,  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary
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