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Looking Into September & Tropical Development

Good morning bloggers,

A rather interesting weather pattern is setting up for the first week of September.  There will be a tropical connection forming in the next several days that may end up increasing our chances for rain over the holiday weekend.  The tropics are becoming active as predicted it would be by Weather2020 this week 8 months ago (see the last graphic in this blog).  The peak of hurricane season is approaching and it usually will pick up in activity at this time of the year, and what Weather2020 has shown with this recent prediction is that using the LRC the location of the activity increase is predictable.  More on this below. Here is the 7 PM forecast 500 mb chart from the overnight GFS model:

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The 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet above us.  This is around half way up in the atmosphere in weight, is unaffected by surface friction, and is the best level to monitor storm systems.  Tropical storms are warm core systems with the most intense part of the storms near the surface. A reflection of them is easily seen aloft, however, and we can see the development of what will likely become Hurricane Florence over the holiday weekend. There is also a tropical wave near the Bahamas that is being monitored closely.

For Kansas City there is a warm front passing through this morning, and this has triggered thunderstorms, most numerous east of Kansas City. The heat and humidity will be returning big time today with highs jumping to near 90 degrees or higher the next two days.  By Sunday, the flow will be rotating in from the Gulf of Mexico at most levels of the troposphere. This will increase moisture and will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms in Kansas City before the holiday weekend is over.

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September is one of the wetter months on average in KC. And, the next 16-day total from this latest GFS model run shows that the first half of the month will be somewhat active with rain chances.

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I quickly put this together showing the 8-month prediction made at the AMS conference in January as compared to the 5 and 7 day outlooks that came out the past couple of days.  Weather2020 over the past few years has made these types of predictions accurately for tropical activity, severe weather outbreaks, Arctic outbreaks, winter storms, and more.  As Real Humedude suggested yesterday, it is how it is phrased, how it these predictions are described that will continue to evolve.  This latest example, at 8 months out, we would predict the location and explain how a tropical wave is likely to target this region on the date range predicted.  And, then as we get closer the prediction will become more specific.  Either way, this is a validated LRC prediction, and I am sure most of you would agree.  These other outlooks are strikingly similar to the one that was issued and monitored for 8 months now.  The models are the models, so let’s see if anything intensifies early next week, right on schedule.Screen Shot 2018-08-31 at 7.25.00 AM

Have a great day and a safe holiday weekend. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation at weather2020.com.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Here it the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Tropical Outlook Comparisons

Gary

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