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Looking Into Christmas Week

Good morning bloggers,

The computer models have been all over the place for Christmas week. Model solutions have had snow storms, rain storms, warm, cold, dry, wet, windy, calm…just about everything and anything you can think of as possible weather for Christmas Day.  Look at the latest European Model for one day after Christmas:

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Take a look at this map closely and here are my take aways from this 10-day model projection from the ECMWF:

  1. There is a major trough predicted to form over the southwestern United States on this model.  Look carefully, and you will be able to see an upper low over eastern Arizona
  2. There is an Arctic air mass over Canada with a surface high north of Minnesota, and it is attached to another surface high over the Arctic Ocean
  3. A strong surface low is near the Mexico/USA border over southwestern Texas.
  4. The Gulf of Mexico is wide open with tremendous amounts of moisture available
  5. There is a split in the upper level flow west of Seattle

Is this just a fantasy storm?  Do other models support this solution?  There is some support from other models, and we will just have to monitor this closely.  Ahead of this system, there is a lead storm system that is forecast to move across around Christmas Day:

f5weather-13

This model, also from last night European Model, shows snow over northern Missouri on Christmas morning.  There have been other models that have had snow and rain near KC on Christmas.  There have also been some models that show snow and rain near KC, and yet others that have dry and warm.  There is a very low confidence level on the forecast for next week at this moment. I don’t like to take all hope out for a white Christmas when there is truly a chance that something changes significantly and fast.  I have seen it before, where I have gone all the way down to a 2% chance of a white Christmas, only to change it back to a 90% chance just two days before Christmas.  The LRC is still coming into focus. The LRC light bulb glows brightly every year by around the first week of January. It is still mid-December, so the LRC only provides a little insight now.  I have known enough to predict that there is a likely storm on Christmas week, and that there is a chance of a cold outbreak. In the first cycle of the LRC there was not one Arctic outbreak.  I did see a couple parts of this pattern capable of an Arctic outbreak, however, and we just have to wait and see how the pattern develops.

This last map, some eye candy for those of you holding out hope for a white Christmas, shows the FV3-GFS model from yesterday with heavy snow and rain right near KC on Christmas morning.  This is just a fantasy model run, and it just shows how it is still just too early to make the call.  I don’t lean in any direction yet, keeping hope alive!

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. Another great day with light winds. High: 55°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with light winds again. High:  55°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain showers.  High:  51°
  • Christmas week:  Two storm systems during the week with a chance of rain and snow.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather20202 and the LRC.  Have a great day and let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

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