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The Drought Shows It’s January Eyes

Good morning bloggers,

And now………………………the long wait until our next chance of snow. It will arrive and we are forecasting two or more snowstorms in February, but between now and then it looks very dry in our part of the world.  The storm over the weekend ended up producing a few flakes around Kansas City with accumulations just south and east of us.  Here is a picture of some snow on Saturday evening taken off the windshield of my car:

The next two pictures are of the visible satellite picture taken Sunday afternoon:

As you can see, we did not miss this by much.  For those of us following the potential snow on Saturday it was a bit frustrating.  We only missed the accumulations by 20 to 30 miles:

And, it was even closer than this.  Justin White in Lee’s Summit sent me this picture:

The weather pattern will be capable of nothing more than wind shifts in our area for a while. A big ridge is forecast to form off the west coast of the United States, just west of San Francisco by Friday night. The 49ers will be on the road as they have beautiful weather on the west coast.  A strong wave of energy is forecast to be dropping south to near the USA/Canada border as it digs towards North Dakota. This is far to our north, and it will drag a strong cold front our way. We will have downslope warming ahead of this cold front. Here is the surface pattern valid at the same time:

This is a very dry weather pattern setting up for the next ten days. I am expecting a big change by the end of the month into February. Between now and then we have a long time to wait for our next exciting precipitation chance.  Have a great start to the week. We will be going over these changes in-depth on 41 Action News today and tonight.  Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

 

 

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25 comments to The Drought Shows It’s January Eyes

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Yep looks like a pretty tranquil weather pattern setting up for at least a week plus. I respect u a lot Gary for writing these blogs up in the middle of the night! Its one thing to HAVE to be up, its another thing to choose to be up. My relatives around Chanute had 2 or 3 inches, they said it started out as frz rain and sleet and transitioned to a 2 inch or so snow. Also wanted to say that I am glad that you cleaned the blog up, I was tired of seeing such negative comments. Keep up the good work :) Have you talked to Doug much lately? I always enjoy visiting my mother and watching “the other station” in Joplin :)

    • Good morning, and thank you. Yes, Doug and I talk often. He is doing well. I believe Joplin got some snow. I will have to call him today.

    • James Anderson

      My hope is they don’t get any worse than what’s forecasted..some surrounding places got a lot more ice than expected. Immediate Response Group and other emergency org. should be on their toes for anything unexpected.

  • frigate

    Gary, I know you guys are wishing for snow, but I don’t understand when forcasting 1-2 inches Saturday, why the drought and this long established pattern of moisture continually missing KC by 30-50 miles to the south and east, is not taken into consideration? This pattern just keeps repeating itself over and over with almost every storm system and sure enough, eastern and southern Missouri got up to 2 inches of rain, while sadly we are missed again. I can’t wait until this pattern is history!!!!!

    • It’s pretty frustrating. But, even the snow to the southeast, and it was just barely to the southeast, wasn’t much. The moisture value was likely under 0.20″.

      Gary

  • ChiefsFan

    Hopefully we can get some bigger snows in February!!!

  • dogsinkc

    Are we going to get that arctic air to stay in place for awhile? I miss those days around Christmas.

  • davidmcg

    Good morning Gary from farm land — McLouth KS. This drought is a catastophe waiting to be fully understood Gary. No snow cover to protect the wheat crop, may not be very happy with what we see come the middle of March. I don’t recall cracks in the ground like this in January before. Maybe I missed them, but this is really severe. 10.8°F at 6:53AM, that was our low, it has warmed up dramatically sitting at 22.8°F currently with a windchill of 14F. Well its winter, its supposed to be cold with dry air in abundance, but we need snow cover to protect the crops and feed the early grass growth with the melt. Chances for snow in mid February is a long way off, whats worse is that it will take 50 days, plus or minus for that to come back as rain, which puts us into April – corn planting time. So the struggle with the weather continues for the farmers and dispels even higher food prices for all of us.

    • Yes, this is another dry pattern. There are some parts of this pattern that may get wet later in the spring. But, I have not really analyzed that yet.

      Gary

  • ChiefsFan

    Does February still look like it will get active weather? I’m hoping for some snow!!!!

  • f00dl3

    Gary – how confident are we on this Arctic air outbreak later this month? I for some reason don’t think it’s going to be that Arctic in nature. Sure we have had some cold mornings, but so far nothing below 5 degrees yet. Maybe I’m used to our winters now, but last year having a coldest temperature of 4 degrees, that didn’t seem too Arctic to me. To me, Artic air is a day where the morning low is below zero and highs fail to reach 15. I just don’t see that happening with the pattern we are in this year – unless I’m missing something?

    • Moderate confidence! There is one Arctic Blast trying to show up for early next week. I wonder how cold it is going to be? We are forecasting 17 for a high next Monday

  • RickMckc

    If it’s not going to snow, the least it could do is warm up to golfing temps!

  • blue8091

    Davidmcg – :( I know how badly all the farmers need the water. It’s heartbreaking. Maybe I never paid attention before, but to see KS already be listed by the USDA for 2013 crops as a disaster – in January. That seems highly unusual. I’m sorry all of the farmers are struggling like they are.

  • Theo

    “Our next exciting precipitation chance”

    That says a lot. Every “storm” forecast is portrayed as some earth-altering weather event. How about calling them what they are? You missed 90% of the population in your viewing area with the last forecast, and yet you over-hyped it for nearly 72 hours. Pretty comical to see the snow freaks on here posting 47 maps every 2 minutes while soiling themselves.

    It’s a drought. The pattern continues to be dry. A professional met, IMO, would take that into consideration before hyping the forecasts. “Going with what you see on the models” is no better than any other met in the industry. You pride yourself with being better than them. Get back to that.

    Yeah, I can say that. I’m entitled to my opinion just like the ones who kneel to you every day and sing your praises and turn a blind eye EVERY time you miss a forecast. I haven’t singled any one out, except the 41 mets, so you can tell your minions to jump on someone else. Knife cuts both ways.

    • mowermike

      “turn a blind eye EVERY time you miss a forecast.”

      We can say the same about you in the other direction when they do hit a forecast.

      You’re correct, the knife should cut both ways.

    • blueflash

      Geesh, could we move on from the “blown forecast” allegations? What do you want, a criminal investigation? Do you expect anyone to be able to look at a storm system 1,000 miles away, predict to within 20 miles of accuracy where it will snow and where it won’t? The drought has nothing to do with it. Folks 20 miles southeast of us got snow, we didn’t. If the drought had some sort of magical hex on us, no one would have gotten any snow.

    • RickMckc

      “snow freaks on here posting 47 maps every 2 minutes while soiling themselves”

      … followed by …

      “I haven’t singled any one out, except the 41 mets, so you can tell your minions to jump on someone else.”

      Really? I think a lot of non-mets on this board fall into the category of your first statement. Please stop singling us out.

      And before you whine about your right to share your opinion, no one here has ever suggested you cannot, just that you not act like a jerk when you do.

  • Emaw

    I have a sneaky suspicion that forecast high of 17 for next Monday will gradually go up as the week progresses. Other than these periodic 2-3 day shots of cold air I don’t think we will see much in the way of a prolonged cold spell. Hell it was warmer in Alaska today than it was here!

  • f00dl3

    Watch the low go up to 8 as well.

    I know Gary has moderate confidence in a Artic outbreak this year, but I just don’t see us getting below 0 degrees this winter. Our coldest so far if I recall was 7 degrees, and usually in February you take another 3 off of that – our coldest temperature of Winter 2012/13 should be in the 3-6 degree range.

    In a way it’s good – because I know I should be fine with my bicycle commute down to 5 degrees and if it doesn’t get much colder than that, I can keep commuting all winter long. That being said, I fear that this just continues to point in the direction that global warming is in fact very real for the majority of the population who believes in global warming.

  • Emaw

    If we’re going to have global warming lets get on with it , because this cold sucks!

  • cweb

    Gary, I was wondering what the time period of 2-12-2013 to 2-18-2013 would look like based on the LRC. It is hard for me to leave town when there is potential for snow. Thx

  • chiefs

    Gary- have you seen the new show Deadliest space weather? ive been watching it and its pretty awesome to see how there is real weather in space and on other planets.