Good late evening or early morningbloggers,
All season long, when there has been any risk of severe weather in our area, clouds and morning complexes of thunderstorms and rain significantly reduced the amount of solar energy available for the potential severe weather risk of that day. Now, today, there is barely a slight risk over a small area of southwest Texas. But, a cold front is approaching, and it may be a struggle to get strong thunderstorms along the front this evening due to the cooler air. Take a look at the 7 AM Satellite picture:
Let’s discuss the points made in our spring forecast. Some of you have asked why we didn’t forecast the wet second half of May, when we obviously did. Here is one of the graphics from that spring forecast made two months ago. As you can see the second line, “During the cold phase expect wetter weather in late May”. And, we picked out the severe weather part of the pattern almost perfectly in that 17th to 25th window. Remember, this week’s three big severe weather days did not even have a risk four days before from the SPC. Our 100 day forecast was better than the 4 day from the SPC. Not bad at all. When we made that spring forecast it was rather dry, so it was a bold forecast, but of course not perfect. We did wonder if it would be below average on rainfall. Overall I would still say that it was quite accurate. You can judge it for yourself. So, this was another accurate forecast using the LRC. We have been 75% accurate during the past two years. What is going to happen next? You can learn more about the longer range at www.Weather2020.com. Just check out the blog from yesterday. I showed the severe weather outbreaks that all lined up with this year’s LRC from the early October one to the April and May versions. They were all around 47 days apart. Weather2020 is making accurate forecasts for the entire nation, not just for KC. They aren’t perfect, but obviously we have raised the bar very high!
Now back to the shorter range. Take a look at the radar this evening:
That is one big line of thunderstorms once again over Texas. Their historic flood continues to worsen. There is a smaller complex of thunderstorms heading our way. I will go over it on the 10 PM newscast tonight. Have a great night!