Quantcast

Look At Texas Again

Good late evening or early morningbloggers,

All season long, when there has been any risk of severe weather in our area, clouds and morning complexes of thunderstorms and rain significantly reduced the amount of solar energy available for the potential severe weather risk of that day.  Now, today, there is barely a slight risk over a small area of southwest Texas. But, a cold front is approaching, and it may be a struggle to get strong thunderstorms along the front this evening due to the cooler air. Take a look at the 7 AM Satellite picture:

1

Let’s discuss the points made in our spring forecast. Some of you have asked why we didn’t forecast the wet second half of May, when we obviously did. Here is one of the graphics from that spring forecast made two months ago.  As you can see the second line, “During the cold phase expect wetter weather in late May”.  And, we picked out the severe weather part of the pattern almost perfectly in that 17th to 25th window.  Remember, this week’s three big severe weather days did not even have a risk four days before from the SPC. Our 100 day forecast was better than the 4 day from the SPC.  Not bad at all. When we made that spring forecast it was rather dry, so it was a bold forecast, but of course not perfect. We did wonder if it would be below average on rainfall. Overall I would still say that it was quite accurate. You can judge it for yourself.  So, this was another accurate forecast using the LRC. We have been 75% accurate during the past two years.  What is going to happen next? You can learn more about the longer range at www.Weather2020.com.  Just check out the blog from yesterday. I showed the severe weather outbreaks that all lined up with this year’s LRC from the early October one to the April and May versions. They were all around 47 days apart.  Weather2020 is making accurate forecasts for the entire nation, not just for KC.  They aren’t perfect, but obviously we have raised the bar very high!

Spring-Forecast-Graphic-640x480

Now back to the shorter range.   Take a look at the radar this evening:

1

That is one big line of thunderstorms once again over Texas. Their historic flood continues to worsen.  There is a smaller complex of thunderstorms heading our way. I will go over it on the 10 PM newscast tonight.  Have a great night!

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

39 comments to Look At Texas Again

  • chris

    Texas definitely needed the moisture. Some of their large lakes were 75% below normal level. Those lakes are now full for the most part. I wouldn’t mind seeing a few more mcs systems before we head into summer.

    • Dobber

      This rain is welcomed by everyone except the farmers. I would love the idea of a summer filled with MCS’s. Bring on the rain.

  • brad c

    I haven’t really been able to tell much difference between the warm and cold phases this spring.

    Calling the for a wet second half of May is not exactly getting out on a limb. It is historically one of the wettest times of the year.

    Our violent weather has been pretty mild in and out of these ‘phases’. (personally that is fine w/me too)

    • Brad,

      When we called out the wet pattern at the end of May, that meant that it would be above average on rainfall. We didn’t just say it would typically be a wet second half of May. It has happened. We had a very quiet severe weather season here, and thank goodness. As I also clearly stated in that spring forecast presentation, we would likely not be in the right spot for severe weather as well!

      Gary

  • brianwat

    You didn’t say anything about a wet first half and it was just as wet the first half.

  • Dobber

    Lots of trolls on a roll

  • stans

    This obsession to tell everyone he is right, and the tricks (semantics, flexibility in dates, saying he said one thing when he didnt, subtle tweaking of forecasts and then claiming accuracy)involved in the process of telling everyone he is right, is so childish that it borders on a serious condition. I will never read this blog again, nor watch 41. This guy needs help.

  • jpp_77

    I have only posted here once but must say, if you don’t like what he has to say, then move on instead of being rude on the blog. No reasone to come on here and bash someone for trying to do his job and think outside the box. The LRC is not always right but it is at the very least, interesting and gives us a way to look further ahead into the future. Nothing will ever be 100%. Keep doing what you are doing Gary and know that the majority of people find all this fascinating whether we 100% beleive in it or not. Happy Friday everyone!

    • Thank you so much! There are so many analogies we could bring up. I just heard two radio sports guys talking yesterday for around an hour about what they thought would happen next year for the Chiefs, from how players will improve or not to who would sign what kind of contract and more. It just hit me. These two radio guys will likely be wrong about 75% of their future predictions. Maybe if they were really good in yesterday’s discussion they will be wrong or right about 50% of them. Yet, everyone will likely forget what they talked about today, or they may adjust their forecast and then discuss it again. Interesting isn’t it? What we are doing with the LRC is predicting the future at an incredible rate of 75% in the 12 week range. We have raised the bar quite high. It is not that we are trying to show that we are right that often, but when it gets called out that a forecast was wrong, when it was actually right, I feel compelled to answer to those questions.

      Thank you again for participating today. Now, let’s discuss the weather. Have a great morning. It’s our 25th rainy day out of 29 this month wow!

      Gary

      • brianwat

        You’re right about the sportscasters, but there is one big difference. Like Stan was saying and I’ve been saying many times, but nobody wants to hear it is 6 months from now if those sportscasters are wrong they won’t be on a quest to somehow piece it together to make themselves right. We’re all wrong so many times in life it’s impossible to count, but the important thing is learning from being wrong and moving on. It’s the politician like spin that bothers people to try and spin it so it appears correct. Maybe you feel attacked so it’s your defense mechanism to do these things to protect what you believe in, but either way it’s wrong

        • Brian,

          There is no politician like spin. We are not perfect on our weather forecasts. Some of them are pretty good, but when we are wrong we will admit that we are wrong. On the sports analogy, well six months later if you guys were in on their blog blasting them for every decision they made, I believe they would debate you just like we are here.

          Gary

          • brianwat

            Why is Boston so dry Gary? I think the fact we ran at a deficit every month and are going to be at 200-300 percent plus this month is an obvious sign that the lrc is greatly flawed, but Boston can’t get anything to come up their way now when every storm hit them in the winter. Would like to see an answer from you not all your followers. I could pick out a ton of cities with similar fates, but these are the most obvious.

            • Dobber

              Why is Boston so dry? Why is Texas so wet? Why are we so wet? Why are you such an idiot? I mean come on now. Go read channel 5s blog.

            • Brian,

              Greatly flawed? It’s definitely new, and we are having success in making these forecasts. The pattern is cycling regularly as we have clearly showed. Just like making a forecast for three days from now, we are making forecasts 100 days from now. Our accuracy is about as good as the 3 to 7 day forecasts are from other sources. Of course, many of those forecasts for tomorrow, day 2, 3, and 4 are wrong. But, they are still useful with enough accuracy. So, if we can forecast a storm 100 days from now, 50 days from now, there is quite a bit of value for businesses and consumers. This is what we are doing.

              Now, for Boston. We forecasted most of their major winter storm systems. As we moved into the spring, and when the Arctic air faded away, the storm systems did not produce as they had during the winter months. If you notice closely, other areas around New England were actually pretty dry. Our weekly forecasts have been rather accurate for that area as we projected the storm systems to be a bit farther north. You can put in Boston on the top of Weather2020 and check them out for yourself. Here is what I just clicked on:

              Week Of: Current Week F / C
              – Current 69°F / 52°F
              This week looks pretty nice with some ups and downs in temperatures. Expect near average temperatures in cities such as NYC, Boston, Hartford, Providence, Manchester and Concord. A storm system will likely approach the area by the weekend with a warm up into the 80s ahead of this front, then some rain by the end of the weekend as you can check in next week’s forecast. Go to Weather2020.com for more information on the cycling pattern.

              -Week of May 31
              Two storm systems this week 66°F / 50°F
              This week for cities such as NYC, Boston, Manchester, Concord, Hartford and Providence there will be 2-4 days with chances of rain and thunderstorms. These days of rain will be caused by a series of systems tracking into the northeastern states. During the winter these storms were centered near the New England coast. We are forecasting them to be a bit farther north this time as summer is approaching. Behind each system will be a shot of cool air. Now the other 3-4 days of this week will be rather nice with temp..

              Gary

            • chris

              I explained that to you yesterday and gary did comment on that explaination. Has to do with moisture supply. The storm cycles still are the same just different amounts of moisture to work with.

              • Hume-Dude

                And Jet stream moves around, changing the storm track. Should be moving north in next few weeks and shut our rain off here.

  • luvsno

    Gary,
    Is the rain done for today ? Will we have more later this afternoon/tonight ?

    • Dobber

      Alice, I think so!

    • Luvsno,

      It is going to rain for many more hours. There is a slow disturbance moving across, well, very slowly. The rain has shown only an increasing trend thus far. I am sure it will taper off this afternoon for a few hours, and then we will see if thunderstorms form along the cold front tonight.

      Gary

  • kellyinkc

    Another quick 1/2 inch this morning. Grass is looking awesome, cant hardly keep up with mowing.
    Yard is very squishy, need some drying out time.

  • Gene

    I love this blog because it actually shows “how the sausage is made” on predicting the weather and I can get information here that would take me hours to unravel myself. So, I never want it to go away. That said, I find the LRC talk and “long range predictions” to be incredibly embarrassing for everyone involved. This is astrology, not science. It is like reading the Farmer’s Almanac (FYI, predicted this week to be rainy and cool!) but if the original founder came alive and defended every prediction. I get that the weather repeats and that there is probably some more predictability to be squeezed out of it. But this “predictability” is not in any way, shape or form useful to any of us. A warning to expect wetter weather during the cold phase in May is functionally the same as “you are going to have some ups and downs this week” from my horoscope. Yes, true, unhelpful. I really, really wish this stuff would remain at 2020 so I can avoid it. Just tell me what the next week is setting up like. And pictures of dogs. I like dogs.

  • AW

    Is it just me, or does the rain look like it’s moving almost directly south to north?

  • Hume-Dude

    Really cool precipitation estimate tool . You can go out over a month, week, couple days to see how much rain has fallen. Save this, its best tool out there.

    “http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/”

  • brianwat

    I just have one last question. You said it would dry out after June 5th once we went back into the warm part of the lrc. If we continue to get rain day after day after June 5th will you finally put an end to all this nonsense and admit that it’s flawed? I would say that from what I’ve seen from your forecasts over the long term that this is simply a cool gimmick that can simply help you figure out when a cold front might approach.

    • Brian,

      It isn’t going to be perfect. It won’t completely dry out after June 5th. The warm phase really kicks in a week to ten days later. If we get rain day after day after June 10th to 12th I would be surprised. The June 4th to 8th timeframe is when the wet storm that happened in October will cycle back through. After that goes by, we dried out in October and we will likely dry out in June.

      Gary

      • The0

        Braintwat, you opened mouth and inserted foot on the first and second half of May being equally wet. Gary dispelled that very quickly, although you could have by simply looking at the facts. No LRC knowledge necessary, or any weather knowledge really. All you had to do was go to a website to look. BOOM!!! Now, you are on to Boston, and their dryness with winter versus spring. Also, you are already criticizing if it stays wet after June 5th, which hasn’t even gotten here yet. I would say you have little knowlege of simple facts (May rain totals above), go from one LRC item to another to dispell patterns (but you fail), and try way too hard to find something, anything, to bust Gary or the LRC on. It’s obvious that you don’t really try and understand the LRC and have no intention to really learn anything about it. It’s obvious you have your mind made up and that’s the issue. It’s a narrow minded approach. You can certainly have your opinion, but it’s not really an opinion. It’s a witchhunt, plain and simple. You don’t stop until you find something to say Gotcha Gary!!!!! No, I don’t know everything about the LRC, nor do I hang on his every word. He’s trying to advance his profession. Yes, cry about peer review. It’s a process and it’s coming. It’s pathetic and laughable reading your posts. I wonder how much thought you put in to being the way you are. Sad, sad.

  • Hume-Dude

    Gary – have you guys considered naming each storm / wave within each cycle so they are more easily identifiable? Not like TWC names storms as if they were Hurricanes. Like for cycle #1, name first storm 1-A-15. Cycle #1 , Storm A, Year 2015. Next storm in the cycle would be 1-B-15 and so on all way though Z although there would never be that many storms in a cycle. Next cycle when that first system recycled it would be 2-A-15. There are a hundred different ways it could be done, but basically the nomenclature would have to include the cycle number, which storm within the cycle, and then the year so you could refer back to a particular storm. That way you could more easily connect each storm/wave and how it behaved in each cycle. You gotta do something like that so you aren’t always just comparing maps, this will help people connect the dots I think. Just my opinion

  • kusteveh

    Is Busker Fest going to be a wash out tonight?

  • Joe

    Gary,

    Can you do a blog on the science behind seasonal differences/impacts for the trolls so as to educate them on how a cycle can be the same but have different characteristics each time around based on the time of year? I would love to hear what Kevin and Ed have to say in response under their many screen names

    • Joe,

      We are going to begin our education series on overall meteorology, and the LRC will be one of the subjects later this year. We are starting this in June!

      Gary

  • sedsinkc

    Sorry, I have to side with the doubters. There has been a fundamental shift in the weather pattern this spring. It started in April, when our “cold phase” was basically a bust and it stayed warm except for a couple of chilly days. Then, storms stopped dropping down from the northwest through the Rockies as they rode over the West Coast ridge, and started coming out of the Southwest into the Plains. My two cents is that the intensifying El Nino is interfering with the pattern that developed last fall. Dry across the northern US and wet across the South, very El Nino-like. I think Cali will get their drought relief next winter, but it will probably come at a price with flooding and mudslidese.

    • Seds,

      There is highly likely an El Nino influence. As we have clearly showcased on Weather2020, this pattern is right on schedule. Now, on next fall’s wet forecast. I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT! But, it will depend on how the LRC sets up. Seds, some El Ninos have been wet in California and others have been extremely dry. It depends on the overall pattern that sets up. Now, I have studied El Nino years and there is a better than 60% chance of a storm track favorable for KC next fall.

      Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town!

      Gary

  • Hockeynut69

    Looks like a nice line of storms forming along the cold front. Will it hold together and make it here?

  • sedsinkc

    Thx Gary, btw, I see the May record for rain in KC is 12.75″ set in 1995. Doesn’t look like we’re gonna break it…as opposed to Dallas, which as of now sits at 17.63″ for May, breaking their all time May rainfall record by almost 4 inches, and another round of heavy thunderstorms is due in there later tonight.

  • sedsinkc

    Upon further review, Dallas may only be at 16.07 inches for May…but more storms are due in late tonight.

  • sedsinkc

    Visual confirmation that KC is “not in the right spot” this year for severe storms. Graphics courtesy of Storm Prediction Center.
    Number of tornado watches by county: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2015_torww_to_date.png
    Number of severe thunderstorm watches by county: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2015_svrww_to_date.png