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Last Nights Thunderstorm Complex Was Hit & Miss Again

Good morning bloggers,

Well, I just checked my rain gauge.  And, I was lucky to get the 0.42″ of rain.  As, it came at the last minute, just around 1 AM as thunderstorms grew over the south part of the KC metro area. There are spots that likely had a lot less.  KCI Airport only had 0.41″, and Johnson County Executive Airport in Olathe, KS had 0.42″ as well. There were other spots that likely had 1 to 2 inches of rain. The frustrations continue however.  Here was the nearly 1 AM radar image:

Screen Shot 2018-06-12 at 6.58.20 AM

I just checked, and I am not surprised, but Lee’s Summit, MO had a whopping 0.23″ of rain. Very sad. But, there are other chances showing up.  The pattern is cycling almost perfectly in the 46 to 49 day range, and it has been since it set up last October and November.  Do you know what is next? We are moving into the part of the pattern that formed a big vortex over Canada around late October into early November.  This will be cycling back through in the next two weeks.  This should provide more chances for rain and thunderstorms.  Will it continue to be mostly miss, and not even hit and miss?  That is something we will discuss in these next two weeks. Seriously, this vortex should cycle back through just as summer is arriving.

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We will discuss the big LRC picture later in the week. But, for now, let’s look at todays weather pattern, as shown above.  A big upper high has formed over central Canada. We are moving into the part of the cycling pattern that did produce some wet conditions in eastern Kansas during the last ten days of October.  An upper high is also developing over the typical southwestern United States location.  This is causing the beginning of the summer monsoon, which is a seasonal wind that brings moisture to the southwestern United States which often leads to thunderstorms.  Hurricane Bud is also developing and a disturbance is also in the Caribbean Sea that is being monitored.  The disturbance in the Caribbean is one Weather2020 forecasted for potential development this week, but conditions are barely marginally favorable for development right now.

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There is another potential set up for thunderstorms later tonight, but now KC is on the northern edge of this chance:

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This is the GFS model solution.  And, I have low confidence in this verifying at the moment. If it was 100% accurate, then the south side of the KC metro would be in developing thunderstorms later tonight into Wednesday morning. It is something we will be monitoring closely in the next few hours.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy this morning with sunshine breaking out later. High:  87°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds with a chance of thunderstorms late. The chance of rain is highest to the south. Low:  68°
  • Wednesday:  There may be some showers or thunderstorms, most likely south, early in the day. Then, it will become sunny with a light northeast breeze.  High:  86°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions. And, let us know how much rain you received.  Here is the link to the blog at weather2020.com:  Click here to join the conversation or read the comments

Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

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1 comment to Last Nights Thunderstorm Complex Was Hit & Miss Again

  • overlandpark4me

    Right next to Peppertree Apt’s on 68th Antioch, Merriam I got .04. The storm split around me and we never had anything more then a brief shower that barely wet the street…Got the wind however.