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Large Area Of Rain With Embedded Thunderstorms Early This Morning

Good morning bloggers,

It is already a rather fascinating weather day here in Kansas City.  Thunderstorms formed Friday evening over southwestern Kansas near the Oklahoma border, and they made it to Kansas City’s doorstep as of 4 AM this morning.  There is a risk of severe weather today, and there have been many experts out there suggesting a wild severe weather day, but they often miss one big thing, the morning thunderstorms.  The risk will highly depend on what happens with this very large area of rain and thunderstorms. Here was the 4 AM radar:

Radar 4 AM

And, look at the 7:30 AM Radar image:

Screen Shot 2018-05-19 at 7.38.25 AM

The thunderstorms forming near and east of Wichita, KS intensified during the 7 AM hour, and the area near Dodge City, KS was showing only strengthening trends.  These will maintain thick cloud cover over Kansas into the afternoon.  The surface pattern has been rather significantly affected.  For the risk of severe weather to materialize these thunderstorm complexes will have to fall apart and soon.

The SPC expanded the enhanced slight risk as they are seeing these thunderstorms as falling apart?  They are not doing so at the moment, but of course we will be paying very close attention to this.  If the atmosphere can recover, then we will have a different conversation.  Nothing can be ruled out yet. Weather forecasting and more specifically severe weather forecasting is quite challenging. The SPC has a tough job.

Here is how I see it, as of 8:15 AM:

  • The front is way down to the south. There will be, what is called an inverted trough that will extend northeast into eastern Kansas later today
  • The morning thunderstorms are more of a factor than the SPC is giving it credit for
  • I would place the enhanced slight risk farther south.  There is just too much cooler air
  • There is a chance of recovering the air mass to much warmer, but right now that chance is low

The new NAM Model has us getting hit this evening, but it also has 88 degrees here by 4 PM.  This is the thing to monitor!

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience! Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation. Have a great Saturday.

Gary

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