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KC Will Go Over 20″ For The Season Friday

Good morning bloggers,

Our snowfall forecast game entries are listed below. The deadline to entry was 10 PM Tuesday night. We have updated the list to include everyone who entered a specific number by the deadline. Good luck!  The contest ends Wednesday evening. There are three systems that may produce accumulating snows, and the first system is approaching the California now:

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There is a tropical connection from south of Hawaii all the way up to Kansas City today.  And, then the disturbance will move through a ridge and emerge out over the plains tomorrow morning.

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This is another example of the unique pattern we are in this year. One of the main aspects of the LRC is that a unique pattern sets up in the fall and then continues through the winter, spring, and summer.  This is definitely a unique pattern, and it is rather fascinating watching Kansas City set up into a snow likely scenario for tomorrow. We rarely have such high confidence in snow even a day out.  The disturbance, breaking through a ridge that is over Nevada today, will emerge over western Kansas early Friday and race eastward. This is likely going to be a five to ten hour snow event. There will likely be a 4 to 6 inch band of snow in the middle of the disturbance and I will try to pick out that exact location on KSHB, 41 Action News tonight.  Then, look at the bigger upper low west of Seattle in the Gulf fo Alaska.  That system is the one that will approach KC Tuesday, and there is a little wave in between these two main systems that will produce a little area of snow Saturday evening.  What did I just say, three snow systems for KC in the next week?  YES!

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This map above shows the early next week storm, and yes it is the St. Louis November snowstorm part of the pattern.  In this third cycle it appears this system has a decent chance to be ejected out instead of tracking south like it did in November, but my confidence is still a bit shaky on this one at the moment.

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The above three maps show the snow forecast I showed last night, and now, let’s see what the models showed for all three systems ending Wednesday when our forecast game will conclude:

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This first map above is the European Model showing 10″ amounts in our area by 6 PM Wednesday, and then these next three are the GFS, FV3 GFS, and Canadian Models:

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All four of these models have 6″+ amounts near KC between now and Wednesday night.  Here are your predictions that are alive in our game:

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Happy Valentines Day!  It will warm up today, and then the snow will move in Friday.  A cold blast will arrive sometime this afternoon, so get ready to bundle up again.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Bands of clouds streaming across from the Pacific Ocean.  A little sun will filter through and it will warm up into the 50s early this afternoon. Then, a cold front will blast in with temperatures crashing into the 30s by evening with windy conditions. Wind chills will be around 0° to 10° by 9 PM tonight
  • Friday:  A 100% chance of snow spreading in.  Accumulations of 2-5 inches likely by evening. Temperatures ranging from the teens into the lower 20s
  • Saturday: A few snow flurries, then a 90% chance of a band of snow with an additional dusting to 2″ possible. Temperatures in the lower to middle 20s

With temperatures this cold, the liquid to snow ratios will likely by 12 to 1.  So, if we get 0.40″ liquid, this would equal 1.2″ of snow per 0.10″ liquid, or 4.8″.  Let’s see how this all sets up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great day!  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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