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Kansas City Vs. New York City In Snow Totals

Good morning bloggers,

The wild week of weather continues. The week began with the “Snow Easter” on Sunday, and now a big warm-up is likely into Thursday. And then………two potential winter storms.  We will discuss below, but first let’s begin with the battle between New York City and KC, well it wasn’t really a close competition at all.  I think we all know who is the winner of the Kansas City vs. the New York City seasonal snowfall totals battle:  New York City!

1Kansas City averages around 19 inches of snow, while New York City averages 25.1″ per year. So, KC should get a handicap of 6 inches of snow.  This year is rather fascinating. As of today, Kansas City has had 6.9″ of snow, while New York City is up to a whopping 40.9″

2What is even more interesting are the averages for both of these locations.  Kansas City has had nine accumulations of snow this year and New York City has had 14 snowfall accumulations. This means that Kansas City is averaging around 0.76″ per snowfall, while New York City is averaging 2.92″ of snow per accumulation.  Let’s take this one step further. If KC would have had the 2.92″ NYC average, then KC would have had 26.3″ of snow this season. And, if NYC would have had KC’s paltry average, then Central Park would have had only 10.7″ of snow.  Pretty fascinating, isn’t it?

 

Take a look at this:

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This map above shows the Winter Storm Warnings that were issued by NWS offices since October. As you can see, Kansas City has not been in one, in fact almost all of Missouri has not had a Winter Storm Warning.

Record Breaker:  Kansas City broke the record by at least three degrees this morning. The old record low was 20°:

Screen Shot 2018-04-04 at 7.37.58 AM

Let’s look at the set ups for the next two days:

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A big warming trend begins after a very cold April morning. By Thursday a warm front, the red line, will be setting up near the Nebraska and Iowa borders of Kansas and Missouri.  If the clouds can clear out, then it will jump to near 70 degrees, but it will at least reach the 60s. And, then a cold blast arrives on Friday morning.  Look at this next surface forecast map valid at noon Tuesday:

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Concern: This system is similar to what happened at the beginning of the year. If you even go back and read our blog entries from the last two cycles, you may be shocked to learn that we had conversations similar to this one already.  The one right at the end of the year is of particular concern.  This one we showed a snow forecast map that had us in 1 to 3 inches of snow, and then we had maybe a dusting over most of our area, or no snow at all, and then in the last cycle around 45 to 47 days ago we had a similar conversation. It went from 60s to 20s with a strong cold front, and we had precipitation, but not much of the winter variety. This one is just as delicate. This is not a strong storm for KC, but it has some potential to produce significant precipitation. If it is a bit stronger, more of a wave, then my confidence will go way up, but any weaker, and then the cold air will take over and the snow area would shift south and leave us with a dusting.  This is why we are waiting to predict snowfall amounts until we get some more data today. Let’s see how this trends.

Here is what the GFS showed on some of the models yesterday. Again, let’s see where this goes today. There is already a trend farther south and weaker.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:  

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and warmer. High in the middle 40s with light winds.
  • Thursday:  A few periods of clouds with south winds increasing. Highs in the 60s.
  • Friday:  Cloudy with an increasing chance of rain, sleet, snow, and graupel.  Thunderstorms are possible during the evening. It will change to all snow before ending. Heavy snow is possible in some areas. Accumulations of a dusting to 4″ in the area are likely by midnight Friday.
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy and very cold. Another record shattering low in the teens.
  • Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow, sleet, and rain.

The models:

    • NAM:  Wide spread 3 to 9 inch amounts. 3″ north to 9″ south
    • GFS:  This model has wide spread 2-5 inch totals with the heaviest south of I-70
    • Canadian: The Canadian model has 1 to 3″ amounts, with most areas in the 1 to 2 inch range.
    • European: Old Euro has a dusting north of I-70, 1″ along I-70, 2″ in Overland Park, KS with a 4″ bullseye just south of Paola, KS.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the blog on Weather2020 and join in the conversation. We can discuss the trend in the models as these next two storms are showing up.  Have a great day.

Gary

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