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Kansas City Now On The Northern Edge

Good late morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now-6 PM: Snow, well sleet first,  increasing with accumulations likely as you can see below on our snowfall forecast map.  This will be the coldest March high temperature in Kansas City’s history.

So what happened? Were we really wrong in the forecast?  We should look into this a bit deeper and I am going to do this in tomorrow’s blog. I first would like to see how this last band of snow moves through and how much we will get. It almost baffles the meteorological mind that sleet has continued to fall as of 10 AM with temperatures this cold.  I will hold off on the explanation and discussion until tomorrow morning.

Weather Discussion:

The main storm system looks impressive on satellite and it is still approaching from the west.  Areas of snow have been increasing west and southwest of Kansas City and as this approaches I-70 will be near the northern extent of this new area of snow. It may very well end up being an efficient snow producer south of Kansas City, with KC on the northern edge of the finale of this storm.  Here is our final snowfall forecast for this last part of the storm. It is still tricky, even at this stage.  So, please hold off on so much criticism until this storm is over.

Take a look at how impressive the storm looks this morning on the water vapor image just taken at 9:17 AM. How does this not bring the snow back north into Kansas City? I think it will and we will know a lot more before noon.

7

As the storm moves across Kansas this afternoon and evening accumulations of snow will be likely:

3

The amount of precipitation forecast will have ended up being accurate. The most amazing part about what just happened is the fact that it was down to 2 degrees and still sleeting. It is almost impossible to believe that such a thing happened overnight.  We knew all along that there was a rather good chance of sleet, but most of the event overnight was sleet along and south of I-70 which, rather obviously, cut into the snowfall totals.  Again, I will go much deeper into this explanation tomorrow.

Let us know if you finally start seeing snowflakes instead of sleet.  Have a great Sunday.

Gary

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276 comments to Kansas City Now On The Northern Edge

  • kellyinkc

    this is one for the record books. very unusual.

  • kellyinkc

    I have 4 degrees and sleet again in Raytown, totally weird.

  • Blizzard365

    Gary, it must have been the sleet that cut into it, there really isn’t any other explanation, as the QPF was correct. I am scratching my head in Shawnee though, at least at my place, it appears all snow fell! I couldn’t find any ice pellets.

    • stl78

      Where r u that the qpf was correct

      • Chuck

        Heres how stl78 and to the any armchair mets out there: 1st, I think we can completely agree that if you want to bash something, then you can bash the snowfall forecast. No one is getting 10 inches in the metro or even 8. However, and remember, this is just my opinion, as it is yours, I take exception to the people that come on here and say things like man up and admit it Gary you blew it, or don’t put that old graphic up to make it look like you were right. Are the people who do this just completley stupid? It is painfully appararent that there are trolls and then there are people who just simply do NOT read the blog in it’s entirety. Gary said in the earlier blog entry that the snowfall was and will be a miss from what was forecast. He said he wasn’t hiding. What else do you want himn to do, plead for foregiveness? He admitted that they just miss one sometimes. Isn’t that admitting that they blew it as far as snowfall? 2nd, the earlier graphic he put up is not some attempt to say, look, we still got it right afterall. He is simply showing what an earlier forecast was and turned out to be the right one afterall. He is not saying they got it right, because they didn’t and he has already said that. If anyone really believes that earlier graphic is an attempt to say we got it right afterall, then that person is not in tune with the weather and is just looking for something to complain about.

        Fredd, you raised some good points, but you had to add that we shouldn’t consider you attacking. Well, don’t consider this attacking either then. Cuts both ways. You came on here really nailing the 41 team with the graphic of 6-10 inches and 10+ as being the thing that people hang their hat on. I think you even said big graphis with big numbers or something like that, wich absolutley was a big time bash, or whatever you want to call it. That is w/o question attacking in my book. You could have just said they got it wrong. Well, they DO have to make a forecast. They were just wrong. What do you want them to do, just tell you on the tv or blog in text form? Then, there will be many that say you didn’t have the guts to put your forecast in a graphic form. The weather people can’t win because there will always be someone critcizing whatever they do, right or wrong. Fredd, you went on to say in other posts that this thing isn’t over yet as radar was lighting up, after blasting that it was done and a bust. Wow, don’t look now Fredd, but you are waffling. Also, Fredd, you said people need to be held accountable for their mistakes. You said that’s what’s wrong with our society today. I completely agree with you. However, if you truly believe being held accountable means getting on a blog and chirping at someone (again not all of your entry was that, but there was a fair shair), then I think you have just stated what I think is truly wrong with society today. With today’s technology, twitter, internet, blogs, etc., we can simply hide behind words that most would never dream of saying to someone’s face. Not just this weather blog, but you know what I mean. This technology is great and it’s bad at the same time. It takes the human element of communication out of the equation. If you really want to hold Gary accountable, the way to do it is not bashing someone on a blog. Just stop watching him and the ratings go down. That would be the ultimate in holding someone accountable. Gary is accountable to his bosses and to us. To us, it is in the form of admitting when something didn’t pan out. I think he did that.

        stl78 as far as qpf….qpf at kci for yesterday and today (through 6AM) is .25. At a 20:1 liquid to snow ratio that is 5 inches of snow. If we get 1-4 more today, you would be right there, or close to the snow totals that were forecast. So, for those that say, we didn’t get that much sleet so how could it have cut in to snow totals that much, you simply don’t understand the dryness of the snow that was forecasted to fall at such high ratios. You are discounting that fact. And that is a fact.

        • Drought Miser

          Is there anything else that you can contribute to the group??

        • stl78

          Chuck, my question was sincere. I was not being a smart a$$

          • Chuck

            I know YOU weren’t. I was addressing your question and not saying anything about you. You simply asked a question. Others on the previous blog were saying they don’t buy it, we didn’t get a ton of sleet so how could that cut in to snow totals. It doesn’t take much moisture at these temps to produce a lot of snow. How soon people forget our last big snow. From 7:00PM the night of the snow as it was winding down, we went in to 20:1 ratios and that snow piled up fast. Some are just uninformed, yet like to say things that they just don’t have knowledge of. If I am ignorant of a subject matter, I would certainly want to ask questions and be more informed if I was interested in something, but until then I don’t think I would open mouth and insert foot like a few do on here. I think the forecast was a bust from snowfall, but there are valid reasons that are easy to point to as why. The sleet did impact the totals and there are other factors too.

  • HeatMiser

    I hope that area shifts north just a little.

  • Bananny

    Really took to heart what was said about going to sleep with nothing and waking up in a winter wonderland. My husband had to be to work this morning in OPKS so he stayed in a hotel last night so he didn’t have to drive far-just walk across a parking lot basically. Better safe than sorry! I am happy there isn’t much. Bring on spring!
    JD Rudd’s Skew T graphic really hit the nail on the head with the sleet. Love his Geek On videos

  • winterfreak

    I think were grasping at straws here. Bulk of the precip looks to be headed well south of here.

  • Bobaloo

    What are the roads like? I’m in Des Moines right now and would like to drive home to KC today. MODOT makes it look like that would be near suicidal, but all the comments here make it sound like the roads aren’t bad. Any info would be great!

  • kiminpv

    The LAST thing I want to see today is a snowfall forecast map. Crimeny.

  • yewtrees

    NWS: Expect that area to remain in some very light flurries to perhaps very minor accumulating snow through the mid morning before completely being done with the snow. Areas a little further south, toward the I-70 corridor will continue to see light snow and sleet through the rest of the morning hours.

    • terrydsnowy

      I live right close to the 1 70 corridor let half mile in KCKS. I guess will see if we get a little bit more snow.

  • HeatMiser

    When you watch the KSHB radar in motion, it looks like its coming this way to me (in Lawrence)

  • snowplowman

    No worries Gary. This is science. We are constantly learning. Turn up the heat now. High school spring sports practice starts tomorrow!

  • Freeze Miser

    I’m off to play my horn at church. If it’s awful I’m turning around and coming back.

    • HeatMiser

      Despite rumors to the contrary, my minons and I had nothing to do with the sleet instead of snow incident. ;)

  • storm42

    Schools will probably still cancel with due to the cold

    • turbokai

      Agree, our district (Shawnee mission) has always cancelled when forecast to get that low. Not sure if they will take into account the three snow days in a row (the last for low temps) from the last storm though.

  • storm42

    *exclude the word, “with”

  • NorthlandKB

    Power is out for thousands of us across the northland…

  • Cacti51

    Still all sleet in Olathe, Gary are you sure its going to change to snow? I hope you are right this sleet is a real bummer

  • NCSUguy77

    No matter which way you look at it– its a busted forecast. Let take the snow and sleet out. The total precip was only 0.27″ as opposed to 0.6″-0.9″.

  • stjoeattorney

    WELL I WILL PILE ON TOO. THE qpf WAS WAY OFF FOR THE FIRST PART, I DID GET THE GRASS COVERED 2.8 INCHES A FAR CRY FROM 4-8 OR 5-9 OR. WELL IT HAS ALL BEEN SAID BEFORE.

    ++++ BUST BUST BUST +++++

    YOU CAN MAKE EXCUSES, BUT STJOE RECEIVED NO SLEET AND LESS THAN THREE INCHES OF SNOW AND WE ARE DONE.

    LAST NITE AT ABOUT 8 I SAID THIS DID NOT PASS THE SMELL TEST WHY?

    1. WAS TO START MID DAY SATURDAY ON FRIDAY AT 8 WE HAD NOTHING

    2. I COULD SEE THE SLEET IN THE TOP AND WIC RADAR AND KNEW THAT THE HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THAT BUT THERE WAS ALL SLEET AND A LITTLE SNOW.

    3. I SAID IT SINCE THURSDAY NAM IS THE MAN THIS YEAR. IT WAS/IS AND WILL BE.

    4. THE COLD AIR WENT T FAR SOUTH. AS A PECK NOW THE SECOUND WAVE WILL BE 120 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE IT WAS FORECAST LAST NITE THAT IS +++BUSTED BUSTED BUSTED ++++

    Now, when is our next chance of snow? Next Weekend oor The Ides of March?

    ++++++++ BUSTED BUSTED BUSTED

    A WHOPPING 2.8 season total 38 INCHES NOW.

    • mattmaisch

      This is YESTERDAY’s 18Z NAM. (QPF) How did it perform? Every model struggled with this storm. Immensely! Here’s hoping that the new GFS will really be a step up next winter.

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030118&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=084″

    • Chuck

      I guess you should be a meteorologist then. At least you didn’t get the chance this time to inflate your snow totals.

  • Kole Christian

    Looks like RickMcKc had the right idea about this storm almost 4 days ago. Maryville still got about what was expected. We got 3 inches, maybe almost 4 inches of light powdery snow.

  • stjoeattorney

    Well I remember sleet at less than 10 degrees in 1997 and the other time was in the 70s, odd sure, it occurs about every twenty [20] years around here. Looking at the last wave the returns are lessening and it is moving due east might hit Cass Cnty.

  • NorthlandKB

    Near Zona Rosa…all power is out. Check the KCPL outage map.

  • spaceotter

    Is something going to push those returns sw of us further south? they look to be heading straight for the KC Metro

  • WeatherFreak87

    The NAM model runs on Friday had this thing NAILED. It showed little to no snow for KC metro, 4-6″ further south (around Nevada) and 2-4″ up by St. Joe. It looks like St. Joe got that amount. We don’t even have an inch here in Olathe, and this last batch appears to be covering the 4-6″ part further south. Everyone wanted to call the NAM the “outlier” on this storm… yet everyone also said the NAM has been the most accurate all winter long. Seems like it would’ve been best to stick with the model that has been the most consistent. I know I will for any future winter storm this season (hopefully this is the last one!!)

    • mattmaisch

      Well, here’s yesterday’s 18Z NAM. How did it do? Awful!!

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030118&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=084″

      • WeatherFreak87

        I’m talking about the snowfall maps. Look at this 18Z snowfall map from Friday.

        “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

  • HeatMiser

    Radar images starting to blossom near Lawrence. Flakes are starting to come down here now, and not hearing any sleet for a change.

  • Cacti51

    Still sleeting in Olathe :( Begining to wonder if its ever going to change over

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm Gary if it is still sleeting this far north what would make it change to snow south of the city ???

  • craigmac

    Sleeting in Blue Springs and it is 5 degrees.

  • HeatMiser

    look at KSHB radar in motion. Snow blossoming on radar and heading right for KC. Snowing moderately now in Lawrence.

  • Cacti51

    Yes I want to know what it will take to switch to SNOW? There is no mention of any sleet today on the blog entry above or from NWS yet that crap is still falling

  • HeatMiser

    Big fluffy flakes!

  • 4 days ago the models were not in agreement.
    3 days ago the models were not in agreement.
    48 hours…then 24 hours.

    Then we talked about 20:1 ratio snow OR a bunch of sleet…and a strip of land 25 – 50 miles wide getting hammered.

    Sleet at 5 degrees?!?!?

    People lighten up. I’m glad the metro was prepared. Thanks Gary. THAT was a historical freak fest of a storm for anyone to predict.

    I love this blog more than the trolls and the people who come window shopping ONLY during the storms to criticize. There will be criticism.

    We all shrug for you and greet our March of 2014. Thanks man.

  • winterfreak

    Ready for some thunderstorms and warm weather.

  • Henley

    I really want to believe we’re done with winter after this but something tells me, we’re not even close to being done.

  • Fredd

    @Chuck–

    Very well-stated and I appreciate your feedback. I am not a arm-chair weatherman, have never made a prediction, nor will I ever. I leave predictions about the weather to those people who are paid to forecast the weather. However, in my posts this morning, my only critique came at the continued use of a graphic used by the weather team. As I stated (without needing to go into further detail) that they continued to hit on that graphic throughout the weather forecast, and I believe if there would have been a 1:00 AM newscast, they would have still been using it.

    Further, I also understand the dynamics behind having to post a graphic, everyone does it and it makes the “masses” have a visual reminder. Not everyone is going to to the NWS site and read their forecast discussion or go to a blog, etc. They have to appeal to the majority of their demographics and most people like graphics.

    Also, I never made a statement this morning about any weather radar, I haven’t looked at the radar this morning, nor do I plan to.

    Last night was probably the first time I have watched the weather broadcast in probably 2+ years. I get most of information from the blog, NOAA and other resources. However, I watched last night because I had a sinking suspicion the overall snow amount was going to be lower than forecast, and for the sake of my kids (who love snow), I was hoping to be proven wrong.

    I am not angry at the weather people, I appreciate all the hard work they put into their craft and sometimes they just miss. As for the anonymous nature of all things today, you are right…however, if I knew Gary personally, I don’t think I would have to tell him he was wrong…because he knows and he understands there were a lot of different variables that all went different ways last night and it just didn’t pan out.

    • Thank you Fred,

      I will write something up for tomorrow’s blog. This has been ridiculous. Extremely rare, and as I am writing it is 3 degrees with heavy sleet. STOP SLEETING! I believe it will change to snow very soon.

      Bloggers, please let us know if you see snowflakes. This is driving me bonkers, if that’s okay to say.

      Gary

      • lvksguy

        Eh, it was a crazy setup from the get go and we all knew that going in.

        Despite all our technical know-how, we still live in an age when we can’t reliably answer the question “what will the weather be like tomorrow?” Maybe in a decade or so with more powerful computers and more accurate models these misses will cease to exist.

        Thanks for all your hard work over the last few days Gary.

      • Fredd

        Gary,

        You are very welcome. I also understand that you take every forecast as a chance to learn and get better.

        I have been on this blog since its inception, I remember the days that there wasn’t any traffic and hardly any posts between viewers. With that in mind, I am not troll because I point an issue with the forecast. I am not a troll who comes on a weather blog and spews venom and hate towards others.

        It is a fact, I love the weather…and right now, I hate sleet…lol.

        Gary—It is also okay to say bonkers…it is driving each of us crazy too!

      • stl78

        Lt snow 5 miles nw of liberty now gary

      • kiwifruit

        Big fluffy snow here now in Westport. Coming down the heaviest I have seen so far with this storm.

      • HeatMiser

        Gary,

        It’s been all snow here in Lawrence for the last couple hours.

      • luvsno

        But Gary, if it is warm in the upper layers would that explain why we get sleet instead of snow ? I am trying to understand.
        Someone last night said something about warm air above being a concern.

    • Chuck

      Ok Fredd. Just seems like now you are taking a soft stance when you didn’t just not too long ago. My bad on the radar comment. I belive your comment was more along the lines of sleet and snow reports coming in from Olathe, rather that something about radar returns. I was also wanting to comment on your stuff because it seemed like you were talking both ways. You have constuctive criticism, then you say hilarious to comments from someone else that talked about mist undercutting the thunderstorm forecast in the spring. Then you say you aren’t bashing. Come on. However, I do respect your right to say whatever you want though. It’s a free world as long as it doesn’t get personal.

      • Fredd

        @Chuck–

        I work in the communications industry, dealing with lots of online forums, twitter, etc. It is enjoyable job, but we don’t have a lot of face to face contact.

        One thing that is very certain in the online world is that words can often be misconstrued and taken out of context because you can’t see the expression on the face of the person or be given the chance to personally respond. It happens quite a bit on the blog, actually a lot.

        As for my stance…I only have an issue with the graphic and my belief that the forecast should have been adjusted to fit the changing weather. But, I don’t sit in their chairs or look at their computer models, so I can’t answer why. Further, television is a competitive business and everyone wants to be right. And a majority of time, they are…and I trust them.

        Lots of funny things said on the blog, because we are all different in our beliefs about the weather.

  • craigmac

    I predict that we have a measurable snowfall in April.

  • lvksguy

    Right, well that’s done then.

    I’m a snow lover like many of you, but I’m finished with the cold for this season. Ready to feel that warm sunshine on my face again…

  • just want to say the roads are SLICK out there. They don’t ‘look’ bad but they are icy! We headed out towards church thinking oh this isn’t bad, but even our top notch ABS had trouble. Then we got almost to church and got a text saying it was cancelled lol (Im in Olathe)

  • Deb

    Gary,

    It is POURING sleet here in Raymore. Rolling off the roof right now. And freezing rain on the north windows.

    Storm seems to be continuing just as you forecast. Through the entire day today is what I remember.

    Deb

    • Fredd

      @Deb,

      Thanks for the advice this morning (french toast recipe)…the kids and the wife loved it!

      Off to play puzzles and build legos….

      Guess we should say: “Let it sleet, let it sleet, let it sleet!”

  • rkcal

    Definitely all snow now in western Shawnee near SM Pkwy and K7. Small flakes mixed with some larger fluffy ones. Maybe this storm has one last trick up it’s sleeve.

  • Cacti51

    How is it managing to stay above freezing in the upper atmosphere with the temperatures where they are at?? This is so frustrating. The sleet continues to fall in olathe

  • craigmac

    Turning over to snow in Blue Springs.

  • WeatherinGtown

    Gary, Do you see any other chances of snow, or any other big chances for big snow in the upcoming weeks before we turn to spring? Like last year, we had a storm late march right?

  • winterfreak

    Precipitation starting to pick up. Sleet and snow mix. Just a little snow is all I’m asking for lol.

  • Alex Pickman

    2.75″ Here in St. Joseph @ 12th and Grand Ave. My season total in now 38.2″

    Ugh, if we can just get one more 6″+ snowfall lol. I had my hopes up with this one.

  • Papoon

    Swirling light snow now just south of KCI.

  • Homer

    Snowing in Mission – small to medium flakes. has been lightly snowing now for over an hour. If this keeps up the QPF will be correct, albeit on the low end.

  • lvksguy

    Snowing in Leavenworth. As far as I saw it was all snow up here from the beginning – although I was out of town for a bit during the evening.

  • winterfreak

    The transition has occured. All snow in Waldo area.

  • carol5johnson

    I would rather be prepared for a storm that fizzles out rather than to be surprised by one that isn’t forecasted. I appreciate the efforts that Gary and his team make year-round to ensure our safety.

  • rkcal

    If it snows all day at this rate, I can see about 2-3″ in western JOCO. That’s a big “if”.

  • Cacti51

    My goodness I think I am dreaming. Its actually snowing in Olathe finally! 127th & Ridgeview. Excuse me while I go pour water on my head to make sure I am awake!

  • Heavy snowfall in Lawrence, and visibility is probably less than a half-mile.

  • no snow just freezing rain so far in SE Olathe. Crazy!

  • will there be at least one more chance of snow b4 darn spring shows up???!!!

  • selvco

    Pretty good amount of snow coming down in south Leavenworth County now. Last night it was just snow until about 11 and then a bunch of sleet mixed in and heard sleet throughout the night. Not much on the ground though, maybe 2″.

  • hk2111

    Snowing hatd and winds are pretty strong here in Eudora.

  • LuvsSummer

    It has changed to snow showers here in Independence. All I will say about the forecast, is, that’s what it is, a forecast made by professionals, who understand they are dealing with the weather. I don’t love snow, I know Gary does. So I hope it snows the rest of the day, just to give Gary a huge smile!

  • sedsinkc

    1.9 inches of sleet/snow mix in KC North with the Part II snow beginning. I’d say another inch or two accumulation is possible here.

  • summerlvr

    It has been snowing in Mission Hills for about 30 minutes—the sleet was so loud around 3:30 that it woke me up.

  • PlazaJohn

    Hi fellow bloggers… i’m very new to blogging and to weather. i read this everyday and learn something everyday. thanks. but someone has to figure out a way to “LIKE” a post. yesterday was snow yenti and today hockeynut with his/her post about mist beating out severe weather. thanks all for the laughs and snowing pretty good on the plaza

  • ChrisK

    Gary…any chance when things slow down you could have the website guys make a link at the top of the page that will skip to the bottom of the comments? Scrolling on my phone takes forever when there’s a TON of comments.

  • yourmom

    It is sleeting here at 127th and Nall. Yuck. Not particularly safe to drive on. The next question becomes: will there be school tomorrow? I am not driving my kid tomorrow regardless, but I would really prefer if they would officially call it off, rather than to have the kid have an absence. I hope that they take into consideration that sleet is terrible to drive on and the temperatures tomorrow are dangerous. Even though many folks have a 4 wheel drive vehicle, indoor garage, etc. that doesn’t mean that the roads will be perfect by tomorrow morning, in fact, I am sure they will still be slick. Just not worth taking unnecessary risk of driving in this stuff and heaven forbid if you get stuck in a wreck with the temps being that bad…

    • Fredd

      @yourmom—

      I am going to assume that due to cold weather and bad conditions, they are going to cancel school. No need to risk it.

    • HeatMiser

      This Kansas in winter, the roads are a little slick but not that bad if you take it slow. I don’t think your risking much to drive your kid to school. I think you are right though, it doesn’t take much for them to close school for the kids, so they very well might, not so much for the snow as for the temps.

      • yourmom

        My kid’s school is in mo although we are in Kansas. Lots of folks go across state lines around here.

  • momvoss

    Snowing In Lansing!!!

  • spaceotter

    83rd and Metcalf a decent snow is falling. Borderline Moderate

  • RickMckc

    Snow near I-29 & 64th.

    I’ve watched weather and numerical forecasting for a long time as a hobby and have never seen the kind of model-waffling for days on end and right up the last minute. I think the models are simply unable to handle this kind of cold at this far south of latitude at this time of year. We are 51 degrees below the normal high right now!

    You gave it your best shot, Gary, along with the NWS (who are also being skewered) but sometimes the answer is just “we don’t know and we don’t have the technology to know.”

    Heck, even surgeons have that problem!

    • NCSUguy77

      Again as i said earlier 0.27″ precip. Its a bust! When I looked at the model ensemble yesterday there were as many models saying 1-3″ as 12-17″ of snow. Every Met and NWS jumped on board for the higher totals. Learn from the storm and move on. Its nothing against Gary or the other mets except they could have lowered the totals before midnight when it was apparent this was not going to take shape. Now for the meteorologist(s) on other channel(s) blaming the sleet for the lack of snow when this was a matter of receiving 60% less precip than expected, so as to paint a nicer picture of their busted forecast.. different story.

      • NCSUguy77

        Looks like “that channel” updated their blog basically admitting this was a bust. Nice to be honest finally.

      • Chuck

        I would respectfully disagree with you on the qpf being a big bust. While models may have been saying 12-17 inches of snow (and that was before yesterday) I don’t think one station said 12-17 inches. Now, Gary did say there could be a bullseye of a foot and they had that graphic of 10+ in Johnson County, if this had been all snow (and that obviously is where the mistake came in) then at 6 this morning we would have had 5 inches of snow and we’d be looking at 2-4 more during the day today and it would have been pretty darn close. The last qpf forecast I think I saw was a max of .6, some were .35 to .5, which translates to 7-10 inches of snow. We aren’t done with qpf out of this thing yet. I think we will wind up with .4 of qpf, which would be 8 inches of snow at 20:1 ratio, which is what we are likely at right now, if not more. So, I believe the entire problem is the lack of knowing how much sleet would cut in to the totals. I agree with you that maybe they could have said this isn’t going to happen it doesn’t look like, but I think they all also thought this sleet can’t continue. It just can’t, but it did.

        • NCSUguy77

          Like it or not, yesterday afternoon ensemble mean showed 0.7″ qpf “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140301&RT=15&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.18180244504511&mLON=-96.59221328125&mTYP=roadmap”; at the same time the mean snow was 6″ with as many runs of 10-17″ as 1-3″ by 06z (not what is going on now) see here “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140301&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.18180244504511&mLON=-96.59221328125&mTYP=roadmap” My simple point is that every meteorologist went with the higher totals, even the NWS. Learn and move on. There is no need to really justify a blown forecast, or help to justify Gary or anyone else. Its just a perfect example of how unpredictable weather can be.

          • NCSUguy77

            Edit* to include through 06z tomorrow. Sorry– no contacts in my eyes to see 3/03 as opposed to 3/02. So actually this afternoon’s snowfall could help to make these models not look as bad if they give us more than anticipated today.

    • Chuck

      That’s what I call a spot on, constructive critique. Nice job.

  • micshell13

    Moderate snowfall in Parkville, no sleet has fallen here today.

  • Suzq

    I am in the northland, around 152 & north oak and I haven’t seen any sleet. It’s snowing right now.. I can tell how frustrated Gary is. Although I am disappointed like everybody else, it is still snow. Maybe not 10″, but it’s still a great day to sit inside, watch Nascar and watch the snow fly.

  • LSPeter

    Finally seeing flakes taking over for the sleet in Lee’s Summit.

  • scottinamsterdam

    I am not surprised with sleet at 5 degrees. In 2002, we had 2″ of sleet (at 16 degrees) before 4″ of snow on backside of the storm.

  • scottinamsterdam

    When you get such a powerful thrust of warm air from mexico, would be logical to see sleet/freezing rain to drive deep into the system. I would expect the storm to strengthen once it begins tapping into air from the gulf.

  • rkcal

    Starting to get optimistic that some moderate snow totals will happen. Not the megastorm, but what the heck; it’s snow.

  • shoedog

    132nd And Roe turned from sleet to snow

  • LarryA

    Light snowfall now in NW Lawrence. Moderate to heavy snowfall in Lawrence started at 10:00 AM and just turned to light snow at this time.

  • weatherjoy

    I’m not even remotely an expert, but the national radar shows a precip shield strengthening and stretching all the way back through the Texas panhandle and headed right into KC. It doesn’t seem like we are on the northern edge- at least right now.??? Maybe I don’t understand how the main storms movement is going to effect the placement of the snow, but yeah… looks like KC is a bulls eye right now.

    • Chuck

      Weatherjoy, we are going to get some snow out of this for sure, but that precip shield you see will NOT stay on it’s current path. The storm is also moving and will drag this precip east. The precip itself is moving east/northeast, but when the the system starts really moving, then that precip shield should move east as well. Everyone from the Texas panhandle to St. Louis will get some form of precip out of this, but we ALL won’t get ALL the precip that will be falling.

  • winterfreak

    Light snow and that band is weakening. Maybe an inch or two for some folks out to the west. Just cold and windy.

  • I too am near 152 and North Oak. I don’t think we had any sleet either – just snow since last night. It’s coming down pretty good now that our neighbor shoveled his driveway a couple of hours ago. If that was all it took, I would have done it for him last night.

  • sedsinkc

    This Part II is only about 50 to 75 miles wide, but its length is training right at Kansas City for awhile before it starts to slide southeast. Talk about your forecasting nightmares, first it was the sleet factor and precip amounts and then it was trying to pin down the exact track of a moderate to heavy snow band before it had formed. I’m cutting the mets some slack. “Busts” like this storm used to be routine in Kansas City. In the last several years though, the forecasts have been much better and we’ve gotten spoiled by how generally good they’ve been.

  • HaleStorm

    This forecast was a tricky one for sure. As per usual, the trolls have come out to blast the local mets even though they warned that the sleet factor made the forecast so tricky.

    Part 2 is hitting right now. I am also wondering when this will slide south as stated. It seems to be training right over the metro right now with no end in sight.

  • I am in Gladstone and it is amazing to think there has been not even a drop of sleet here through this entire storm but on the other end of the city it is still sleet, we all knew this sleet line was going to determine so much and be somewhere in the Kansas City area, but it is still just amazing!

    • sedsinkc

      I’m 1 mile south of the Gladstone city limit and here it was about a 50/50 mix of snow and sleet in the first round, but all snow this second round.

  • yourmom

    It is snowing at a pretty good clip now at 127th and Nall.

  • sedsinkc

    Looking at the radar, there is a little curl of echoes apparent west of Emporia and north of Wichita, which appears to be the center of a disturbance causing this snow band. Once this disturbance passes KC, the snow band should begin to retreat to the southeast later this afternoon. After that, there is still the other disturbance out across Colorado and New Mexico, but I’m not sure what that will do to us. This is the main disturbance that looked so impressive off the California coast 2 days ago, now a shadow of its former self. Anyone have thoughts on whether that last disturbance will bring more snow to KC tonight, or will it stay well south of KC?

  • sedsinkc

    Amazing that it’s 1 degree at noon on March 2. That midnight high of 5 might end up being today’s high, breaking the previous all time record March low-high by a remarkable 6 degrees.

  • dpollard

    Nice snow finally in Blue Springs. The area of snow looks identical to the forecast snowfall map from last night. Could we actually approach the lower end of those totals? 4″ in the 4″-8″ band, and 6″ in the 6″-10″ band? If somehow we could, the forecast in my mind would be almost perfect in the end despite the challenges. How awesome would that be?

  • stl78

    Regardless of the outcome of this system, u will NEVER win as a meteorologist. I love the science behind it and respect there efforts. Right, wrong or somewhere in the middle, I truly appreciate your all u do! I love all forms of wx but I am tired of workin out in this. Especially considering I’ve been workin well north of Missouri for quite some time. I’m ready for the seasons to battle it out.

  • Fredd

    Nice snow fall in southern Blue Springs now…really nice.

    Kids are standing at the windows, asking to go outside!

  • dpollard

    Gary, do you see some potentially exciting tricks from this storm, i.e. still getting the original forecast amounts, as opposed to the disappointing tricks that is has already provided?

  • NCSUguy77

    It would be pretty nice if this ended up finishing out like the end of the last storm with the additional 4-6″ in the last few hours. Might just be enough to “un-bust” the event LOL

  • lovetheinches

    Snowing good in Excelsior! Do we know when the snow will end my husband is waiting to plow til it’s over but radar looks like it’s going to last for a really long time??? Please help

  • stjoeattorney

    No flakes. It ended at 430 am. So while you may be nearer to the forecast we will be a bust. Call it what i9t is 2.8 incher, sun is getting brighter too.

  • winterfreak

    Big fat flakes in Waldo.

  • BigSteve

    Here in Midtown (near Westport Rd) it’s been snowing for a couple of hours. Big flakes falling at a moderate clip. Isn’t this what was forecast? I don’t get people saying this is a bust. From the radar it looks like I’m going to get at least a few more hours of this.

    • NCSUguy77

      Gary’s forecast on the previous 2 blogs; this afternoon was a wildcard:
      * Midnight – 6 AM Sunday: Snow, heavy at times, with sleet farther south. The sleet will cut into snowfall totals and the trend is for this area to bne farther south. Temperatures dropping into the single digits. Snow at temperatures this cold create the conditions for high liquid to water ratio. Usually it is a 10″ of snow to 1″ of rain, but in this situation it could be 20″ to 1″ or more. We are forecasting around 0.60″ to 0.75″ liquid, so the ratio will end up being a big factor into how much snow may accumulate.
      * Sunday morning: Snow will likely be falling early in the morning in a somewhat thin band with sleet on it’s southern edge. There will likely be around a 50 mile wide area that is in this heavier band, and the highest snowfall accumulations will fall within this 50 mile wide area. It could be quite significant and it is something we will just have to wait and see where it lines up.
      * Sunday afternoon: The snow will taper off to flurries as the storm begins to shift south. Temperatures will be in the single digits as we experience one of the coldest March days in our history. Kansas City has never had a high temperature below 11 degrees in March.

  • sedsinkc

    Dallas was 81 yesterday. Currently it’s 26 there with thundersleet reported in the Metroplex.

  • titansfan89

    Do you all still think the heaviest will be south of 70. I’m in Sedalia and am hoping for a few inches.

  • Grambo624

    Finally changed over to all snow here in downtown Lee’s Summit about 30 minutes ago. Coming down good now.

  • mospeduc8or

    Steady snow in eastern Independence for the past hour.

  • Skylar

    If you ignore all the weather previous to this point, Gary’s forecast wasn’t that bad. The snowfall map he created yesterday matches the current radar almost perfectly.

    • NCSUguy77

      Very good point. It would be funny if this batch and the actual storm from CA itself spun thru and produced snow similar to the original totals, after myself and others called this a bust! LOL!

    • Drought Miser

      I was thinking the same thing myself

  • Deb

    Gary – sleet to snow changeover in Raymore. Started all snow about noon. Snowing heavy now.

    Snowplow went down our street 3 times and yet there is still a pack of sleet/ice mix on the road. That must be tough stuff to get off.

    Watched this storm spin off California coast for 3 days. It rained in California for 3 days. Is it possible the storm will hang around here for more than just today?

    Looking forward to your recap of the storm after it is done, of course!

  • stjoeattorney

    Looking at the satellite movie and radar the low is in the OK, TX and far west KS area. This is of interest it is 50-75 miles north of forecast.

    The 435 loop area and just north and south should see snow of LT to MOD intensity for 6-7 more hrs. It appears an area is forming in west KS and Dodge City Radar has it moving more NNE vs ENE it may reach us or it could dissipate.

  • batman

    Looking at radar it looks like we are right in the middle of it now. It seems even the nowcasting has been way off with this storm.

  • Farmgirl

    I wonder if the south side of the Metro is really going to be the heavier precip amounts. Nothing going on in La Cygne yet which is just fine with me. Hoping for none to under 2 inches.

  • themonkeysays

    There’s a pretty long band of snow stretching from KC to Wichita and beyond, and it looks like it’s moving NE. I hope it doesn’t all make it this way, but right now it looks like JD’s forecast from last night might have been the best. Most other sources were saying the snow would taper off by afternoon, but it at least appears we’ll have at least a couple or three more hours of pretty good snow. Also, the main storm system is still way out at the four corners. I’ll probably get trapped at work. boo

  • NCSUguy77

    Wonder if the NWS will have to upgrade back to a WSW?

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    Sun is out here in St. Joe. Glad we missed out on the higher snow totals.

  • winterfreak

    WAA will suffice. Not really close to warning level if you ask me. Flip flopping between light to moderate now.

  • winterfreak

    WWA is what I meant.

  • Drought Miser

    Light snow here in Merriam maybe getting close to1.5 inches of a snow then sleet and now snow again mixture

  • luvsno

    Relax Gary, and thank you for admitting that it may have been a bit of an “off” forecast….
    I do appreciate ANY met who can admit when things did not go as hoped for.
    Here is an apology of sorts from “another blog”.

    I’m sure some want to rip away at me/us. Human nature. Totally get it…and I can’t be doing blogs saying the forecast worked out…and then not admitting when the forecast didn’t work out. Nor will I play the revisionist history game and say well 3 days ago I said this…so I’m right in the end. I don’t play the game that way and my readers know it. I’m publicly critical of my forecasts to a fault, moreso than any TV meteorologist I know, and this forecast, clearly didn’t play out according to plan.
    So have at it…I’m a big boy.

  • RTBlue

    I’m in the Northland around Zona Rosa and currently am getting snowfall. It’s kind of fluctuating between light to somewhat moderate. No sleet.

  • winterfreak

    Heavy snow now in Waldo area.

  • yewtrees

    According to the recent NWS update, not a lot of snow will fall throughout today.

    “https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/440188810266030080/photo/1″

  • kellyinkc

    nice snow now in Raytown. 3 degrees. Hopefully we can squeeze a nice snow out of this.

  • Coming down in Leavenworth now at a nice clip. Probably 1/2″/hour tops. Light to Light/Moderate.

    • kurtjon

      This was a dissapointment in terms of liquid equivalent up north, granted we aren’t in a drought category but this is absurd we can’t get decent moisture. Sun is out now and appears the band is continuing to sink south and east

      I am reading for winter to end on this sad note. Bring on some generous rains

  • lenexa_loon

    2″ on top of the sleet so far in western Lenexa. had moderate snow for a couple of hours.

  • NCSUguy77

    Looks like this will be winding down in another hour or so for KC area.

  • dpollard

    Just measured 2.1″ of snow/sleet in Blue Springs and still snowing decently. It appears we may sneak out 3″ after all. It is interesting and of course probably a total stretch to think the main spin out west could continue our snowfall into the evening/nighttime and somehow surprise us in the end.

  • dudelove

    For a bust, it sure looks nice out here in SW Olathe with the big flakes coming down between light and moderate (sometimes coming down sideways).

  • redavis

    Gary, it seems like I’m getting dry slotted in Columbia, MO. We started out with totals of 7-10, & its steadily dropped now the NWS is saying 1-3″ & I even think that isn’t going to happen. I only have about 1/4″ or less of sleet on the ground. Is the band that is affecting KC northeastward up through Carrollton to near Moberly expected to shift southward on keep its current SW to NE axis??

  • heavy snow in SE Olathe coming down now…wow!!

  • yewtrees

    Dallas was 81 and sunny yesterday. It is currently 27 and snowing. That is crazy!

  • NCSUguy77

    Unless the band starts to develop/fill in on the north side, this should be mostly south of I-70 before 3pm.

  • HeatMiser

    Looks like snow will come to an end shortly in Lawrence. We ended up with close to three inches in total (sleet and snow).

  • kckid

    Moderate to heavy snow in Leawood at1:30 p.m. Maybe the criticism of Gary and crew was premature! ;-)

  • dpollard

    Look at the southwest corner of Kansas ahead of the main system? That area is growing in coverage and moving to the NE. I think it needs to be watched for later this evening and tonight. Call me crazy. Didn’t I see some model runs that showed an area of enhanced snow but staying south of here for tonight? Maybe it is taking aim on KC instead? Thoughts?

  • I think Bill Murray has a handle on it… http://youtu.be/t3lshY4PwI4

  • lenexa_loon

    no one, local or national, got this one right. Even in OKC, they are getting pounded by heavy sleet/ice, much more than forecasted. this storm will make a good case study.

  • Jim Satterfield

    Large flakes coming down at a good clip in Lee’s Summit.

  • sedsinkc

    Some parts of North Texas are over 60 degrees colder than they were 24 hours ago. “https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/440214653847625729/photo/1″

  • winterfreak

    Snow should end in the next hour or two.

  • Hockeynut69

    Another graphic bust. So a late morning graphic the same day of the storm shows 1″ of additional accumulation for southern Clay county. I live just west of Liberty and I cleared my driveway at 11, almost two hours after graphic was posted. And now there is at least two inches on the driveway and still snowing. It appears on the radar we could get additional accumulation for another feature we hours. Maybe it will help last night’s graphic but this morning’s is a bust. Unless of course a huge gust of wind blows a few inches to the south of I-70. Time to quit looking at the graphics and just watch what happens out of the window.

    • kellyinkc

      weather rule #1.

    • Chuck

      Good lord, it’s off a few miles. What do you want? Perfection? So much hatred of graphics, yet you complained about the graphics last night saying they were a bust, and you relied on it again this morning until you can find a reason to complain that it isn’t spot on. It’s weather. Give me a break.

  • dpollard

    End for awhile but what are the chances of all that precipitation south and west of here being what gives us the totals from this mornings snowfall map?

    • winterfreak

      I am pretty sure that is heading south of us. What you have now is going to mist likely be it.

  • winterfreak

    The shows over for Kansas City.

  • GarySaid71Degrees

    Let me get this straight.

    “It’s going to snow 5-9, maybe 20, 20-1 ratio or higher, blah …”

    Then it’s maybe a dusting.

    Then, within an hour or so of snow actually falling, “It might snow an additional inch.”

    And it’s snowed probably 3 where I am, dead-center Johnson County, KS.

    And we are to believe you can see the future, 37-68 days out, and you can’t forecast 12 hours out, or 6 hours out, or an hour out?

    Zip it, miser and you other weather pros. This is an EPIC bust. Top-five, at least.

    • Chuck

      You know nothing of what he is attempting to accomplish with the lrc. Nothing. Oh, way to change your screen name.

      • scottinamsterdam

        I can see both sides of this argument. Gary at least tries to explain why he thinks something will happen on a forcast – yet a lot of the people who work for him (or most of the jr. forcasters on other stations say general “blah” statements that could mean “anything”. Nothing like listening to someone who can’t come out and say ‘not really sure what’s going to happen, but here’s what I think’.

      • luvsno

        ( Don’t look now, but He’s baaaaack ….muku…..)

    • kiminpv

      The LRC is about global weather patterns and whether or not a recurring cycle exists, can be tracked and if so, how does it fit with other metorological tools at our disposal. It functions at a macro level.

      Short range forcasting is subject to more “micro” atmospheric conditions.

      Perhaps someday the LRC will yield a level of confidence in an outbreak of tornados & severe weather in the midwest over a 4 day period two months in advance. With that lead time, someone else is able to create more advanced tools and weather stations specifically related to tornados and have those tools in place prior to the tornado outbreak.

      Voila, we have a potential life saving benefit from improved long range forecasting ability.

      I am just a layman and I know that is a very simple take on it, but I don’t remotely connect it to the ability to tell me what the high temperature is tomorrow. Two entirely different things.

      I for one, think we are incredibly fortunate to get to see this theory play out in front of us. Imagine if you had gotten a play-by-play account of other widely held scientific theories as they were being worked through? I’m sure Einstein didn’t have all the details perfect his first time through either.

    • stjoeattorney

      God LOVE YOU, COULD NOT HAVE SAID IT BETTER…

  • dpollard

    The latest models seem to keep it south of KC but who knows at this point. Like someone said, just look at the radar and out the window. I just need to time out when to head out to begin snow removal. Thoughts?

    • scottinamsterdam

      Think storm is getting its act together now. Will start snowing good on south of KC here by 430 or 5. I believe the real bullseye will be Springfield – StLouis – boothill and northeast.

  • Weatherman Kumke

    Well. That was an interesting storm to say the least. A very good learning experience for everyone. The Sleet did in fact cut down majorly on totals leading to lower snowfall totals across the metro. Now if you click through every channel before the storm last night, you will see that every single station Busted big time because every station pretty much used the last 18z Run as their tool for snowfall forecasts since the models have not handled this storm well at all. (JL (animal station) even stated that he hated this storm from a met perspective.)

    Looks like I don’t have to eat crow. That inch or so of sleet with 2-4 inches on top for a forecast was pretty good. Was expecting to eat the crow, but I guess I don’t have to.

    First forecast this year everyone has blown. It’s March 2nd. Let’s move on to storm chasing and taking pictures of Lightning, Hailstones, and funnels!

  • yourmom

    Anyone who works his/her rear end off is an easy target, such as a weather forecaster, teacher, doctor, etc. think about it. And then give the person a break.

    • Pete Capone

      Please, let’s not start. I know plenty of teachers (in the BV and SM school districts, as well as Rockhurst and St. Theresa’s) and plenty of doctors that don’t work their butts off. In fact, quite the contrary.

      And, Gary is the exception in the met profession. Some at the other stations don’t work very hard.

    • stjoeattorney

      Attorneys are not always right either and the law changes.

      • Joe

        Attorneys are rarely right, they simply manipulate the law to make it look like thay are…..:D

  • kurtjon

    When is the next storm due and please let it target north of kc this time :-)

  • scottinamsterdam

    Just now started snowing decent sized flakes here in Amsterdam. This might clip you in KC. Also it’s not showing up on radar which means it is forming just ahead of the “wedge” of snow moving up from OK.

  • jayhawkX

    Gary, how will the models learn from this storm? How long does it take for the data to be entered into the model systems?

  • dpollard

    Gary, I need some expert advice. What are your thoughts on what is developing out west of here? I have crews set to go out but doing residential we try to wait until it is done. It has my attention for sure for tonight.

    • The cold air is getting deeper and taking over, but there may be one more last band forming to our west and coming in later. Let’s keep monitoring it.

      Gary

  • stjoeattorney

    That precip out in west KS is not moving south, it is moving NE and growing, from the water vapor movie gulf moisture is still flowing north, This will be interesting, if it stays together at 5pm and north their could be another round.

    The snow has compacted a great deal with the sun and is melting out of trees.

  • sedsinkc

    Storm total 3.3″ in KC North just S of Gladstone. 1.9 inches from Part I and 1.4 inches from Part II.

  • stjoeobserver

    Gary, thoughts on the cold cloud tops out over Western Kansas that are building and spreading Eastward? I know most models kill that part of the system off within the next couple hours but it appears to be expanding and further growing vertically if anything.

    • stjoeattorney

      I think I figured it out, with temps of 3-7 degrees, dew points of -8 to -11 humidity at 50 percent it will take it all to saturate the column.

      • stjoeobserver

        Well we’ve hit 50% humidity already at Rosecrans at surface. I have no idea what to check to look for atmospheric saturation though. Anyone know of a model that displays this in some way?? I also checked RAP soundings and it appears there’s still a warm nose but it remains below freezing all the way so we should see all snow in St. Joseph still.

        • stjoeattorney

          Right now we are in a semi dry slot as the moisture plumes are separate and distinct. If we still have a warm nose and clouds come in ground level humidity will pop up quickly. It bears watching. This snow shield is moving more north than east, increasing STJOES chance.

  • craigmac

    Some of that snow West of Salina, KS is going to hit the metro unless it falls apart first.

  • luvsno

    JD Rudd just posted on facebook…..

    “Wrapping one band of snow, but here comes another from Western KS. Look at that thing. It’s moving to the NE and indications are it will hold together. I’m sifting through all the forecast data for the rest of the week. Monday will be super-cold, but I see warmth headed this way by Thursday/Friday. See you all at 5p on 41 Action News – KSHB-TV!”

  • HeatMiser

    He also just said on Twitter that “that blob in western ks could easily give us another 1-3 inches later today…the Sunday snow continues”

    • luvsno

      Heat….I’m not on twitter…keep us informed if he says anything else about it. One more hour until he is on the air. Thanks !

  • blueflash

    I measure 3 inches in west central Independence. Not much blowing and drifting due to the consistency, so it was easy to measure.

  • LuvsSummer

    Congrats Gary! You and your team nailed it! I’m just in from shoveling. Found spots out of the wind and measured 4 times, 6″ is the average. Sterling and 40 Hwy Independence

  • Morham

    I am not anything close to a met, but by looking at the radar loop, I think the stuff in Western Kansas will not make it here. I think we are done or maybe a few flurries. No more accumulation inside the 435 loop. When watching the radar it appears stable air is moving in and the whole system is sliding east and echos are shrinking from north to south. If that makes sense. Then again, I have no idea what I am talking about. LOL!

    • craigmac

      I would say if JD said it could snow 1 to 3 more that we will at least get something more. I am going to hold off shoveling until it is clear so that I do not have to do it again.

    • HeatMiser

      JD said in the last hour that it looks like it is going to hold together, so since you say you don’t know what you are talking about I’ll have to lean JDs way on this one…lol. We will see though eh?

      • Morham

        For sure! :) If JD turns out accurate I will go back to lurking for months as I get my golf game back in shape. Wait, it has to get warm for golf first. *sigh*

    • scottinamsterdam

      I agree with you Morham. Living in Bates county, looks as though snow coming up from SE Kansas is hitting a wall and sliding east as it gets here.

  • Hockeynut69

    3.1 at KCI. 3-4 is decent estimate now in northland. Will the snow out west get here or will it tease the snow lovers? Roads are still messy. I am anticipating no school for kiddos but I will be headed to work at 4am. Bring on the 40′s and 50′s!

  • winterfreak

    Not sure what JD is seeing with this. Looks to like it’s northward progression is being shunted. This looks like it will pass well south of here.

    • HeatMiser

      yeah, I see what you are saying. Lets see what he has to say at 4:00 on the newscast.

      • HeatMiser

        I meant at 5:00, but I guess not because the PGA wants continue coverage with a four man playoff…yuck.

  • ChrisK

    That last band of snow wont make it here…even if it does it will be very light.

  • scottinamsterdam

    I tend to agree winerfreak and chris. Springfield to StLouis and south will get clobbered.

  • Henley

    Nobody “nailed it” here in southern Lees Summit, I can still see all of my grass so maybe 1″ – 1 1/2″….fine with me.

    • LSPeter

      I’m on the south side of LS, too, and I can’t get a decent idea of how much snow/sleet/whatever we got, as the winds are really blowing it around a great deal. I’ve got grass poking through the white stuff in spots, and drifts of 8″ in other spots.

      • Henley

        Wow, I’m here near Raintree and there’s not even enough snow to drift, it’s just barely higher more than “a dusting”.

  • yourmom

    Just driving 127th and Nall to 135th and Metcalf was fairly slippery. It isn’t always about how much snow we get. How about ice? frigid temps? Those things are no picnic either.

  • Hockeynut69

    No school tomorrow for Liberty School District.

  • Finally cleared the driveway and pretty consistent 4″ here near MO-152 and Maple Woods Pky. A little over half of that was overnight. No sleet.

  • Pete Capone

    Don’t get your hopes up for any more snow. If you look at the Goodland radar, the Hastings radar, the Topeka radar and the Wichita radar, none of the snow is moving northeast. It is DOA at I-70 and the trend is southeast.

    One band by Salina that is moving east southeast, but would barely clip Ottawa if it stayed together.

    It’s done.

  • HeatMiser

    The roads arent so bad if you take your time. It is freakin cold out though, esp with that wind. JD still says snow out west could get us an additional 1-2 inches later tonight.

  • winterfreak

    Just don’t see how we get anymore measurable snow. Radar trends aren’t indicitive of that.

  • kcendo

    Interesting tidbit: several locations in Oklahoma set record lows for the date today IN THE MID-AFTERNOON! IMHO, the models just couldn’t fathom this extreme of a surge of arctic air for this time of year…

  • lenexa_loon

    If JD says the last blob on radar will hold together and produce here, then that’s the end of it. JD is the up and comer in this town.

  • Weather Hulk4400

    From my point of view, here is what I think went wrong with this storm. At the end, these factors played a major role in the final outcome of the storm.

    1) On Friday night – the storm looked rather impressive – almost like a small hurricane. However, much like a small hurricane, this storm was forecast to “weaken.” The storm made land – and it didn’t hold the strength that it had. It still had a punch to it, but not enough to give us a large amount of snow as once thought.

    2) The wave that brought us the first round of snow last night – that came in from the north – the concern was this wave would push the main storm further south because of the colder air. That is exactly what happened.

    3) The biggest issue with this storm all along was the sleet. Every forecaster went back and fourth on what might happen. All forecasts called for some sleet north of I-70, but it was forecast to change to snow. South of I-70 it was suggested it might sleet longer – cutting into snow totals. To that end, the forecast was right on. Previous forecasts did call for sleet and did warn that would cut in to the total. However, that doesn’t mean the final outcome of the entire forecast is accurate. It is all part of the big picture of what “might” happen

    By Saturday night) the thinking had changed and Channel 41 now was forecasting “the bulls eye,” of the heaviest snowfall – which was expected pretty much over the heart of KC – especially from Overland Park to the west side. That area – the forecast was for 10+ inches. At this point, Channel 41 was the only station in the market going that high. The NWS was forecasting 7 to 11 inches so they were also expecting more snow.

    There was a point where all the other stations were cutting back on their snow forecasts. Overnight the NWS went from 3 to 7 inches of snow (total for the overnight hours) to 2 to 4 inches of snow. To be fair, JD Rudd did mention a concern about sleet – but he did feel it would change over to snow. I am not knocking him – just saying how it was.

    4) The focus for this storm was turned to the liquid to snow ratio. One station at one point forecast 25:1 which was way to high. However, Channel 41 was forecasting 20:1. Both Gary and JD felt that this would be a key factor, especially as the main system headed this way. That is why they had such high amounts of snow. It takes very little liquid to produce a high amount of snow with such cold temps. Under “textbook circumstances,” the higher snow ratios should have given the KC metro more snow. Under “textbook circumstances,” the sleet and snow should not have lasted as long as they did.

    5) At one point, Gary forecast the snow would shut off at noon on Sunday. As it turns out, the snow actually shut off Sunday AM because of the dry slot. We had a couple more hours of snow/sleet mix – but it was too little to late. Everything pretty much came to an end Sunday afternoon. Channel 41 was still holding out for hope. They still were forecasting snow to occur Sunday evening. In my mind, they were grasping on to something so that they could come back and say they had the most accurate forecast. After all, KCI had 3.1 inches of snow. If we were to get 3 more inches – at least they would have been a lot closer than what they were.

    6) The straw the broke the camels back so to speak – was the heavy snow developed along and north of I-70 late Saturday night. It appeared it had a high potential for heavy snow rates. It appeared like this band would move southeast. Some were now calling this “the main show,” while others were suggesting the main show was still off to our west. That part I didn’t understand. Looking a “textbook situation,” the heavy nature of the precipitation should have caused evaporational cooling and cool that layer around 7,000 feet from roughly 32°-35°F down below freezing. The precipitation type did bounce back-and-forth, but even the heavy sleet couldn’t overcome that warm nose of air aloft. As I mentioned above, the sleet won the war.

    Had the snow stayed snow, easily 2 to 4 inches would have fallen overnight with the 1 to 3 today, there would have been a widespread amount of 4 to 7 inches.

    The bottom line here is this forecast didn’t pan out as forecast by anyone. I am talking the final outcome of the forecast – not the various events through the duration of the event. We had a sleet storm, not a snow storm – which is very rare in these parts. Over 15,000 feet above our heads, it was 34 degrees – and that made the difference between 6 to 12 inches of snow and the final outcome. Obviously, there are many more details that I am leaving out – because I don’t really understand all of them. The bottom line is the forecast was tough, and it turned out to be a bust. Life goes on – and we look to the next storm.

    I am sure tomorrow Gary will have many details in his blog of what exactly went wrong. I will leave it for him to do that.

    The one thing I don’t like is how all the stations in the market hype up the storm – and I don’t mean from the weather department. I don’t have a problem with the stations talking about what may happen, and the impact on the community. I don’t mind them telling me to stay home. However, what I think is rather silly is to send out a reporter and tell me it is snowing or to have a reporter stand on an over pass and show me the flow of traffic. I really don’t care about that because that is not news. It is done for ratings. This applies to all markets – not just KC. Just tell me the news, give the forecast as best as you can and move on.

  • WeatherinGtown

    Are we going to get any other significant winter storms this season? If not, I am ready for warmer weather!

  • kellyinkc

    OK, this cold is getting old, LOL
    check this picture out, real or Photoshopped?
    “http://i.imgur.com/7rQlFJ4.jpg”

  • blueflash

    Its passing to the south. Butler…yes. KC Metro….no

  • yourmom

    Most kc area schools are out tomorrow. We still have not heard from pembroke hill or Barstow. Bummer.

  • scottinamsterdam

    South of KC in Amsterdam, have a glazing of ice and maybe a 1/2″ of mostly snow and a little sleet.

  • Grumpy

    Interstates (35, 435, 470) are virtually clear. Offramps…not so much. Surface roads are dicey as well. Mostly hard packed and navigable, but slippery in spots with little warning.

    Went from LSMO to Baldwin City and back today.

  • luvsno

    Everyone want a quick diversion from the weather ? If you are on Facebook go check out the picture that Gary just posted of him and his 2 brothers, Jeff and Scott, at their mom’s Celebration of Life. Would never guess that they are brothers ! Jeff and Scott…both have long hair. Jeff looks maybe to be Amish ? (Probably not though, because they don’t allow photos). Anyway, it is a nice shot of the 3 of them.

  • Kcchamps

    I shoveled the driveway a bit ago and I’d say we got 3-3.5″ here in Independence

  • weatherlover

    I’m so glad the snow is done!! I hope this is the last cold spell and snow for this winter!!!

  • Kcchamps

    maybe some snow for Wednesday??

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030218&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

  • Emaw

    What was the moisture content from this storm?

  • Emaw

    Ahh, there it is .19″ at Olathe Executive. Beneficial? No. A miserable brutally cold inconvenience for everybody? Yes. But hey the snow lovers got to see a lot of sleet and an inch or two of wind blown powder, cool.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=072″

    latest GFS for wednesday’s snow chance

    1-2″

  • OlatheMatt

    Whatever the NAM shows that is what I am going with until the chances of snow are over with.

  • themonkeysays

    Everyone be careful driving around tomorrow. I just got back from work and most of the snow has been plowed (the main roads), but what that left us with is about 1/2 inch of ice and snow-pack. You can tell it’s ice because it really shines with the streetlights on it. Drive slowly and try not to stop completely and you’ll probably be fine. I managed to make it all the way to my driveway, then I finally got stuck. Spring can’t get here soon enough.