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July Statistics Day

Good Wednesday bloggers,

It is hard to believe it is August 1st. The Chiefs have a home game against the Texans next Thursday, time is flying!  The first of August is also know as “July Statistics Day.” July 2018 was quite interesting and we broke a 5 year streak…Finally! On July 12th, we reached 100°, officially at KCI. This had not occurred since September 8, 2013. The lowest temperature of the month occurred the other day, 59°.  Rainfall was 5.29″, 0.84″ below average. This was misleading as some locations had much less rain which I will show below. Also, 3.29″ of the 5.29″ fell in one day, the 18th, when a freaky thin line of torrential downpours stalled over central Platte county.

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Here are the rainfall totals for July 2018 from around the area. Pleasant Hill and South OP saw some decent rain, but look at Downtown KC, 1.05″!  There were many locations that received around 2″ of rain. So, this is why the drought is getting worse. The rain is simply not widespread enough.

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There are almost no chances of rain through Sunday. There is a front to watch early next week that could bring, scattered T-Storms.

A weak cold front will slip into northern Missouri Thursday morning. A few showers and T-Storms will accompany this front, but certainly no drought busters. The front will stall and head north as a warm front Friday.

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Friday will be hot with highs in the low 90s. Then, Saturday will see more clouds as a system that produces thunderstorms from the Dakotas to New Mexico moves through. Yes, we will get clouds and maybe a sprinkle from the system. The next legitimate chance of thunderstorms is Monday-Tuesday with this front. The most likely scenario, no matter what a model shows, is for us to see scattered decent rainfall amounts.

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Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. The scattered green areas are around .25″ to 1″ and this falls mostly early next week. The shape outlined in yellow shows where the least amount of rain is forecast to occur. Does this shape look familiar? See below.

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The shape should ring a bell. It is in the shape of the current dry areas across the central and southern Plains. This is not a coincidence. These droughts can feed off themselves as not only are we in the same pattern, but the ground is drier, there is less evapotranspiration and so the thunderstorms tend to fall apart or be in lower coverage. Now, that being said, it does not mean we cant’ see one widespread rain event.  So odd.

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Have a great rest of the week.

Jeff Penner

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