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Its going to rain this weekend, but how much?

Good morning and happy Friday!

     Its going to rain this weekend, but wow, it could end up being a struggle.  Just look at this morning.  A thunderstorm complex in central Kansas is weakening as it heads toward Kansas City.  This is shot from :ESP Live at 6:45 this morning. If it can make it here, it will likely only produce a few hundredths of an inch of rain in a few spots.

     Its a small disturbance, one of two or three that will move through the area this weekend.  Another one will be moving through sometime tomorrow.  That offers up a forecast challenge in timing the rain’s arrival.  Our POWERCAST model has a nice band of rain west of K-C tomorrow at noon.

     It looks impressive right, but this band could weaken to where we get a few rain showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  This makes for another forecast challenge.  How much rain will we get?  In looking at a number of models this morning, there is a wide range from .21″ of an inch to an inch and a quarter.  So which will it be?   We are in a drought right?  So, I am sorry to be pessimistic but I bet we get the lower end of the range.

    On to Issac.  Those of you who have said this storm was headed into the Gulf, look to be on the money.  This picture, that I show you below is an in-house model that takes a consensus of all the forecast paths and tries to come up with the most likely solution.

   Folks around Mobile, Alabama need to be taking hurricane preps too.   In fact, the west coast of Florida and the Republican National Convention may only get minimal effects of Issac.

   Have a great weekend.  I’ll put the over under on the weekend rainfall amounts at .50″.  Anyone want to take a guess?

Brett

 

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13 comments to Its going to rain this weekend, but how much?

  • greek

    I’ll be shocked if we get more than a sprinkle here in Ray County, the Sahara of the Midwest.

  • Chicken Little

    “In looking at a number of models this morning, there is a wide range from .21″ of an inch to an inch and a quarter. So which will it be? We are in a drought right? So, I am sorry to be pessimistic but I bet we get the lower end of the range.”

    I think I see what you did there. At least I hope so. I’m proud that you have decided to jump on the anti-jinx bandwagon.

  • yewtrees

    “thunderstorm complex in central Kansas is weakening as it heads toward Kansas City”–surprising, NOT! It has been a norm throughout this summer. We are on the edge and might get 0.3′ of an inch, if we are lucky!

  • frigate

    Whats new…this is the same pattern we’ve been through for several months. So here we go again, its already happening. There is something stopping the rain every time…it gets up to a Wichita/Topeka line and poof!!! I hate to be so pessimistic but don’t see more than .10 at my home in Grain Valley, MO. I’d love to eat my words but just don’t think it will happen.

  • davidmcg

    Started here in McLouth KS just before 6AM, since then we have only picked up 0.01″. Sprinkles and some mist is all we have now.

  • lenexa_loon

    this morning 980 am radio said 1″-3″ with localized flooding possible.

  • RickMckc

    I’ll take the over, Brett. In fact, I’ll call at least 1.0″ at KCI … which I think was my “forecast” about a week ago – next inch of rain before Labor Day.

  • kellyinkc

    so when is the Android app available?

  • sedsinkc

    I’ll be the pessimist and say KCI gets 0.38″ of rain this weekend. Hoping I’m wrong about this.

  • willy

    First post in a long time. Just a hunch, but we will need a ‘drought clearing’ event to punch through the situation. Low humidity, system after system drying up on approach to the KC metro, etc.. I’ve watched it ‘leak’ rain now during moisture events for the last several months. Something has to get the skies to open up, cause catastrophic change, ‘irrigate’ the locale, etc. before we see consistent, more normal, precipitation. It’s just my opionin, but there are subtle things at work here. It starts with getting us ‘really wet’ once or 2x before things start to change.

  • Adogg

    Really I am a pessimist here as well. Just watching the rain fall apart today like it has the whole year makes me think that it will do the same tomorrow. I think north KC may see 1 inch but points south not so much. Here in Drexel, I would be shocked to see over a half inch and really that might be too high.

  • Farmgirl

    Another huge grass fire off of 359th and Jingo rd. This is just off of 69 hwy. In southern Miami county. Flames can be seen 15miles away!!!

    I have been worried about grass fires…. come on rain! Several county fire fighters are on the scene trying to put out the flames before it reaches several homes. I am sick of this drought.