Good morning and happy Friday!
Its going to rain this weekend, but wow, it could end up being a struggle. Just look at this morning. A thunderstorm complex in central Kansas is weakening as it heads toward Kansas City. This is shot from :ESP Live at 6:45 this morning. If it can make it here, it will likely only produce a few hundredths of an inch of rain in a few spots.
Its a small disturbance, one of two or three that will move through the area this weekend. Another one will be moving through sometime tomorrow. That offers up a forecast challenge in timing the rain’s arrival. Our POWERCAST model has a nice band of rain west of K-C tomorrow at noon.
It looks impressive right, but this band could weaken to where we get a few rain showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This makes for another forecast challenge. How much rain will we get? In looking at a number of models this morning, there is a wide range from .21″ of an inch to an inch and a quarter. So which will it be? We are in a drought right? So, I am sorry to be pessimistic but I bet we get the lower end of the range.
On to Issac. Those of you who have said this storm was headed into the Gulf, look to be on the money. This picture, that I show you below is an in-house model that takes a consensus of all the forecast paths and tries to come up with the most likely solution.
Folks around Mobile, Alabama need to be taking hurricane preps too. In fact, the west coast of Florida and the Republican National Convention may only get minimal effects of Issac.
Have a great weekend. I’ll put the over under on the weekend rainfall amounts at .50″. Anyone want to take a guess?