Good morning bloggers,
A late summer cold front moved through early this morning and the winds have shifted to the north and are quite gusty. Cooler air has arrived and a thick band of cloud cover is overhead. But, where is the rain? There are a few weak bands of rain showers around, but so far the KC metro area has only had a few sprinkles, if that. A band of showers developing to our west will be slowly heading our way today. Many spots will not have measurable rain at all. The dew points are low for this type of set-up in September. We should have been talking about whether or not we will get one, two, or three inches of rain, but instead we are wondering if we will have measurable rain at all. The drought continues to affect the region and this weather pattern, that set up last fall, has not broken yet.
As we watch radar and wonder if any rain shower will fall on our lawns today, we can look at the map above and wonder what this means. As we move deeper into September and October a brand new weather pattern will set up. Shots of energy will begin diving into the flow and a new pattern will evolve. The first few weaker shots of energy have already started affecting the pattern and a much stronger shot is now in the forecast. This map above shows a rather deep trough forming over the Great Lakes states during the next week. I believe this is just a regeneration of the old pattern at first, but something bigger will begin happening within two to three weeks. According to my theory, the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th, so we aren’t quite there yet. What does this mean for our weather? September weather can be quite wet, but to be wet you would want a trough to dig into the western states, NOT the eastern states. This developing eastern trough will make sure that the dry weather pattern will continue through into the heart of what is supposed to be a wet month of September on average. This will also create enough colder air for an early frost up to our north and northeast later this month.
We will look into the details of these changes on 41 Action News. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.