Good morning bloggers,
A late summer cold front moved through early this morning and the winds have shifted to the north and are quite gusty. Cooler air has arrived and a thick band of cloud cover is overhead. But, where is the rain? There are a few weak bands of rain showers around, but so far the KC metro area has only had a few sprinkles, if that. A band of showers developing to our west will be slowly heading our way today. Many spots will not have measurable rain at all. The dew points are low for this type of set-up in September. We should have been talking about whether or not we will get one, two, or three inches of rain, but instead we are wondering if we will have measurable rain at all. The drought continues to affect the region and this weather pattern, that set up last fall, has not broken yet.
As we watch radar and wonder if any rain shower will fall on our lawns today, we can look at the map above and wonder what this means. As we move deeper into September and October a brand new weather pattern will set up. Shots of energy will begin diving into the flow and a new pattern will evolve. The first few weaker shots of energy have already started affecting the pattern and a much stronger shot is now in the forecast. This map above shows a rather deep trough forming over the Great Lakes states during the next week. I believe this is just a regeneration of the old pattern at first, but something bigger will begin happening within two to three weeks. According to my theory, the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th, so we aren’t quite there yet. What does this mean for our weather? September weather can be quite wet, but to be wet you would want a trough to dig into the western states, NOT the eastern states. This developing eastern trough will make sure that the dry weather pattern will continue through into the heart of what is supposed to be a wet month of September on average. This will also create enough colder air for an early frost up to our north and northeast later this month.
We will look into the details of these changes on 41 Action News. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.
Gary
Up here in McLouth we received 0.14″ overnight and our wind shift occurred just around 10PM, I’d have to go back and look at our data to get a better time. But it was a strong wind shift with gusts around 22 mph as I remember. Now the winds are gusting to 11.5mph and it is 57.0°F with rain to our west and south west.
David,
Down here….only a few sprinkles so far.
The big concern I have now is that KS farmers do not have sufficient moisture to plant wheat. Wheat planting time is now.
Ken,
The fields across western and central Kansas just got a nice soaking. The wheat crop is looking like it will get a nice start. They don’t need a lot of moisture.
Ummm… only 2% of the 2013 wheat crop has been planted. The reason: dry soils. Just because it rained does not mean the soil contains enough moisture to plant. The drought has caused the soil to pack and planting will be very challenging.
Gary, I wish you were right, but from the precipitation estimates I saw today, most of central and western KS got around 1/2″. The soil needs a lot more than that after this summer’s seige. In a normal year, it would need 1″ to 2″ in Sept to plant. My father farms wheat in western KS and there is no way he can plant now.
I think I know who tuschaser is now….had to see the various comments to know for sure but Kev, your forecasts are definitely reliable. Gary, correct me if I am wrong but your LRC theory is macro-based correct? That is how I take it anyways. Is it perfect? No…this is why it’s a theory still and being fine-tuned. I don’t think most get what this theory really is other than people assuming if it rained/snowed on such month and day, that the same area will get rain/snow again X amt of days later.
DSNOW,
It has some micro components to it, but overall it is more of a macro-based overall pattern. The same pattern can produce 5 inches of rain in one cycle, and not much in the next. It is up to the weather forecaster to make that prediction. The same pattern can and does produce different specific results where we experience the weather at the surface.
See…KFC(KEVINS FORECASTING CENTER)has been a TASTY substitute for the LRC this summer…NO one brings(DELIVERS) forecasts like KFC… signed, Kevin; Pres. of KFC. Have a good 1.
@ Dsnow, Thanks for the shout-out…I,m hoping for an active fall tornado season…I would like to video, at least, one more tornadic event this year…If I do,I will share it w/ the bloggers…That,s why I continue to forecast,to stay sharp…The KFC has been fun(during this drought)…The boring weather sucks…
@DSNOW … Do tell – inquiring minds want to know!
lol…well we know his name is Kevin. If its the Kevin I am thinking of, his forecasts and web pages has quite a following and has been very accurate, especially on the micro level. I will leave it up to Tushchaser to confirm or deny this. All I am waiting for is for him to lay out some forecasts with the winter storms. That Kevin, is extrememly accurate with those. To Stans, my post here earlier wasn’t directed at you, its at some that do nothing but rag on Gary. You have legit questions concerning Gary’s assessments and I too, am eagerly waiting for the answers. Gary, maybe post a new blog explaining the similarities between middle of July and late August? It’s only fair
You nailed it Gary. I watched a nice lighting show to the West right before bed (0100) last night, but we only received a mist of rain two miles South of Reno. Looks like southern Leavenworth county might get a couple shower today though.
Makes sense….local atmospheric conditions, jet stream location, etc plays a part as well. I am not here to criticize others here, everyone has that right to their own opinion…just here to learn….critically learn and understand instead of injecting a fallacy-laden personal attack. Thanks Gary for your insights, I have learned much.
Why do you say it is a drought affected rain event when other areas, who are as equally drought affected, are getting several inches since last night? Kansas City is not the center of the drought, or the universe. A better headline would be “Storms bring rain relief to some drought stricken areas, misses others.”
“….but still not enough”.
Dsnow, I originally read this blog to learn. I found it a great learning device, as the blog entries were always very informative with regard to what is coming…still are. Why I speak up with my takes is because I see Gary using the LRC as a marketing ploy, and his defense of it continually never makes sound scientific or even common sense. He either claims “it’s there, trust me” or “just like as predicted by the LRC” when, in fact, it wasn’t (see winter, spring, summer forecasts). Oh, he’ll use the jet stream argument or seasonal variation argument to defend when longwave maps don’t match up. But when they do match up, even in different seasons with different jet stream strengths, then he’ll pull up the TWO matching maps to say “See!” His new claim regarding Isaac was preposterous, disingeneous, and downright untruthful yesterday. I only speak up here because I am trying to call out this sharade so people don’t just buy it because the guy, who named it after himself, says it is so.
There’s actually a nice line of training showers that’s set up right on top of us for now. Today might out-perform my low expectations.
.13″ so far two miles South of Reno. Raining very lightly.