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Interesting Set Up For Today

Good morning bloggers,

Well, what can I say? It was a rather wild day for us in the weather and news business the past two days.  It began 190 days ago when we targeted this week to be a severe weather week and the LRC comes through with another absolutely incredibly accurate prediction emphasizing the cycling pattern. Then, the severe weather manifested itself earlier in the week when KSHB Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily tracked down an EF3 or stronger tornado over central Kansas. Storm chasers from around the world had a pretty good tornado chase on Tuesday.  Then, on Wednesday there was a moderate risk of severe weather targeting the KC region, and we had many tornado warnings. How many tornadoes? Well, that may be tough to know for certain, but the NWS will do their best to analyze the damage, mostly rather insignificant unless it was your house that had a tree land on it. The spin-ups were mostly “gustnado” types of tornadoes, or just straight line winds. It is a tough analysis for the NWS.  And, now today we have this set up, beginning with the surface conditions that are currently influenced by rain cooled air and morning thunderstorms:

1

The models have many varying solutions, but I decided to plot this RUC model surface forecast valid at 8 PM the evening as the sun is about to set:

2

Just as I finished plotting this, the SPC updated their map and it is falling in line with what I was analyzing:

day1otlk_1300

There is an area of rain and thunderstorms moving across the plains this morning and this may impact the conditions later, but we are uncertain at this moment. We have to see how this lines up. The most likely area for severe thunderstorms will be north and east of the surface low. This could end up in eastern Kansas if it warms up enough, or it could end up in Iowa as shown above. If it ends up in Iowa, the chance of severe weather near KC is much less. It is something we just don’t know for sure at the moment.

I am a bit wiped out this morning, but we will be ready to track this severe weather risk this evening if it does materialize.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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