Increasing Thunderstorm Chances

Good Sunday bloggers,

We had a few showers overnight and now we are in for another nice and warm May day with highs in the 80s. We are in for a marvelous Monday with highs in the 70s. Then the pattern become more active as there will be chances of thunderstorms in the Plains practically every day Tuesday through next weekend. Let’s go through the week.

SUNDAY: It will be a warm day with highs in the 80s along with areas of clouds. A brief afternoon shower is not out of the question. A weak cold front will drift south this afternoon and we will feel the affects tonight and Monday. Lows tonight will drop to 50°-55°, making for a comfortable start to Monday.


MONDAY: This will be a very nice day with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze from the east. Highs will be 75°-80°.


TUESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: The pattern becomes more active as a series of disturbances and fronts track east out of the Rockies. The severe threat is lower this week than last week, but it is not zero and we will have to keep a close eye on each day’s set up. The first chance of thunderstorms arrives later Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially from the state line and points to the east.


WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: A front may linger and new thunderstorms will be possible where this front sets up. Right now it looks like southeast Kansas and south Missouri.


THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Thursday looks calm. Then, Thursday night-Friday a new disturbance will bring thunderstorms to Nebraska. This cluster may stay north along I-80, but we will have to watch for a southeast turn.


NEXT WEEKEND: A bigger storm system is looking more likely and this is where our severe weather chances will increase along with the chance of heavier rain.


RAINFALL FORECAST: This active pattern is coming in the nick of time. A drought extends from southern Iowa to the southwest Plains. If the pattern stays dry, then the drought will expand faster during the warm season as evaporation rates increase. If we see many rounds of thunderstorms, the drought disappears.


Right now it looks like most of the region will see at least .50″ to 2.00″ of rain with some locations seeing up to 4.00″ of rain. The locations of the heavier rainfall totals is not set in stone as it depends on where the heavier part of the upcoming thunderstorm clusters track. Notice that there is not much rain for Oklahoma into Texas. So, perhaps we can lop off the northern part of the drought.


Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

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