Increasing Rain and Tropical System Chances

Good Saturday bloggers,

We will see rain chances increase each day for the next 5 days as tropical moisture increases from the south and a front drifts in from the north.

We had a few showers and thunderstorms this morning, mostly north of I-70. These were a southern extension of much bigger rain and thunderstorms across Iowa. These small and brief downpours will end by noon. There will be a 10% chance for a few new thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Highs today will be around 90°.


This is the map for Labor day. You can see we are in a flow from the Caribbean Sea. This flow will become increasingly more moisture laden as it tracks into our region. As this flow increases, a front will drop in from the north. The heaviest rain and thunderstorms will be along the front across Nebraska and Iowa through Labor day. Then, we will see the higher chances drift south.

Also, look that the red text. Yes, a tropical system is looking more likely according to the models and National Hurricane Center for early next week across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Now, we have been saying this location and timing for a tropical system since January. If one forms, it would likely be named Gordon.


You can really see the tropical flow in the 5 day rainfall forecast. The bulls eye near New Orleans is showing where the tropical system may occur.


When we zoom in to our area you can see the 5 day rainfall forecast ranges from around 1″ to 3″ with the heaviest northwest, closer to the front. Some locations may see locally higher rainfall depending on the extent of the tropical downpours.


LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST: The chances increase each day as moisture from the tropics increases, increasing the coverage of the downpours.


Here is the latest drought monitor. We are now officially surrounded. This week there should be some serious dents in the drought, not only here, but across Texas and Oklahoma.




When we zoom in, you can see the areas of severe to exceptional drought across northern Missouri and around Kansas City. This came out on Thursday. Thursday night and Friday morning saw some big rain in northern Missouri.



Wow! Look at this. 4″ to 7″ of rain occurred in the very areas that needed it. So, there is no doubt that when you add this plus what is yet to come, that the drought is waning over northern Missouri. Rainfall around KC has been piddly in comparison, so the one remaining drought area seems to be the KC area, which is the exact opposite of last summer. KC was one of the only locations in the region, not in a drought. During the next 5 days even the KC area should see a reduction in drought conditions.


Have  a great, happy and safe Labor day weekend.

Please don’t drink/text and drive.

Jeff Penner



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