Good morning bloggers,
Who is ready for a major change/shift in the weather pattern? As discussed in yesterday’s blog we are not near one of the hot spots for winter storm activity this winter. In our winter forecast we showed the most likely spots for a rather active winter, but we also talked about how these “hot” spots would likely shift south a few times and Kansas City would potentially fall into the one located near the Great Lakes and upper midwest. We described this Upper midwest/Great Lakes long term long-wave trough as one of the main features that will return this winter many times:
This map, the example of this year’s Great Lakes/Upper Midwest “hot”spot that we exhibited in the winter forecast blog, shows a major storm that formed between October 17th and October 19th. About a week ago we identified the cycle of this year’s weather pattern to be close to 51 days. This cycle length is still preliminary, but it has been somewhat close to this number for around nine days already. The weather pattern, according to my theory, the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle), really becomes identified between October 1st and November 10th, but it takes until the second cycle of the pattern before you can truly get that first indication of this year’s cycle length. By the end of the year we can firm this cycle length up. We have been waiting for this storm system to show up. The computer models have finally started picking up on this year’s LRC and this part of the pattern has been clearly modeled by the past few GFS model runs.
Here is a zoomed in version of the October 18th 500 mb flow:
When this storm developed and intensified to our northeast, Kansas City only had two days of light showers and 0.04″ of rain. That’s all it did for us. Let’s take a look at the GFS forecast from yesterday morning and compare the 300 hour forecast to what happened around 50 to 52 days earlier in October:
The models will be all over the place in trying to predict this part of the LRC in the coming week. But, eventually they will come into focus and start narrowing in on this storm system that will occur in about ten days or so. But, for Kansas City it may not mean much more than a few showers (rain or snow showers?) as it becomes a big Great Lakes storm. In this second cycle of the LRC 2012-2013, however, there is more potential to have some true winter weather excitement in our area as this storm develops and moves by. There is a cold air mass over Canada this time that wasn’t there in October. We should get a nice cold shot in the wake of this system and the jet stream will be stronger in this second cycle of the LRC. We are not really near one of those “hot” spots and we will need everything to shift south, which may happen in the middle of next month.
Between now and this storm system we have another strong wave of energy that will zip past us next week, and it is directly related to a storm that did the same thing around October 14th. That middle of October storm did bring us almost an inch of rain, but I am concerned it won’t produce that much this time through. We will go over the latest details on these changes and look ahead to December on 41 Action News today and tonight.
Have a great Wednesday and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let me know what you think of the map comparison above, and I will try to answer any questions you have as time permits today.