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Important Weather Parameters To Monitor This Week

Good morning bloggers,

As we begin this week, let us begin with announcing the winner of our little contest we had back in late September.  Glen in Trenton reported snowflakes in Grundy county Friday.  These were officially our first snowflakes in the viewing area and it happened on October 27th. Joe Kenig is the winner of “It’s A Sunny Life” the beautiful children’s book with a great weather section in the back.  Joe picked October 27th at 12:30 AM, and he is the winner.  A great prediction made 31 days before on September 26th.  Thank you for participating.  The snowflake contest continues and you can enter for three more weeks.  There is no sign of a snowstorm showing up at the moment as this weather pattern continues to set up.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Partly cloudy and windy.  Northwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. High: Near 50°
  • Tonight: Cold for tailgating.  Winds continue through the game with temperatures in the 40s. Go Chiefs! Beat the Broncos!
  • Halloween: Periods of clouds and cold.  A very slight chance of a shower.  It will be pretty cold dropping into the 30s for trick or treating.   High:  44°   

Did you experience the sunset last night?  Here is a picture with Sunny The Weather Dog posing.  You can see the virga in the sunset, the precipitation falling and evaporating before reaching the ground. It was rather incredible.

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Weather Discussion:

What is this weather pattern that is evolving before our eyes?  We are still identifying where storm systems are reaching their peak strength and where storm systems are their weakest.  This is one of the three main aspects of the LRC.  The most critical period to analyze is between October 1st and November 30th.  This is likely where most of the first cycle of this years pattern will have been completed.  Things to watch closely:

  • California:  It has been very dry thus far over the Golden State and storm systems have not been able to reach that far south. There are a few systems to monitor in the next two weeks and how these track and produce will say a lot for what will happen this winter out west
  • The Arctic Oscillation: The AO is suddenly forecast to go high into the positive territory. How often will that happen this winter as a high positive winter is likely a warm one, but is this just a short phase?

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As you can see above, the AO is forecast to surge towards +4 this week. Let’s see what really happens, and below you can see the rainfall forecast for these next ten days from last nights GFS Model:

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On this map, California doesn’t completely get missed, but this pales in comparison to how they got blasted by wet storms last year in this developmental period of the cycling pattern.

Who stayed up late to watch that incredible 13-12  World Series Game 5? Houston and the Dodgers went at it as the pitching failed and the bats came alive.  They lead 3 games to 2 as the series heads back out to LA.  Thank you for sharing and participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions.  Have a great day!

Gary

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