Good morning bloggers,
The eye of Major Hurricane Maria with 150 mph winds sustained around the eye wall is nearly over San Juan, Puerto Rico as of 7:30 AM this morning. Puerto Rico is a mountainous island with 3,000 to 4,000 foot peaks and this will help weaken the hurricane just a bit while it traverses and blasts this populated island. A major disaster in Puerto Rico is in progress this morning. Maria will then move back over the warm water and potentially strengthen back into a CAT 5 hurricane once again as it likely just barely misses the Dominican Republic and Haiti (sometimes called Hispaniola).
Tropical Storm Jose may eventually interact with Major Hurricane Maria. The weather pattern is in the process of going through its seasonal massive transition as the new and unique pattern evolves before our eyes during the next two to six weeks. A weather pattern that has never happened before is now evolving and Maria is getting caught in that change. The track of Maria as we move into the next seven days is still quite uncertain. If you remember Hurricane Irma’s track, there was a point around seven days out that had Irma heading into the northeastern United States, staying off the east coast, or into the Carolinas. I favored the track to near Cuba which was out of most of the forecast cones. It ended up going all the way to Cuba. So, let’s be careful about getting so confident on where Maria will track. Again, the pattern is changing in these next five days as the Autumnal Equinox arrives Friday at 3:02 PM central time.
Kansas City Weather:
This weather map above shows one model solution valid at 7 PM this evening (HRRR model). Can you find the surface features? This is one of those maps that is a bit difficult to draw in all of the features, but I did my best at drawing in the main ones as you can see below:
The front just northwest of Kansas City will likely be coming to a complete stop this evening. This front will be the boundary that may trigger thunderstorms. On this model, as of 7 PM, it would still have not been strong enough to break through a capping layer aloft, but eventually as the sun sets and we move into the late evening hours thunderstorms will likely form and they may be quite active with lightning. A severe thunderstorm or two will be possible.
This front will then wash out as it shifts north overnight. Let’s see how this evolves tonight. Where exactly this front stalls will show us where the most likely location of thunderstorms tonight are possible.
Have a great day. Let’s have the citizens of Puerto Rico in our thoughts today. Let us know if you have any questions and thank you for participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.