Good morning bloggers,
It was a cool start this morning with temperatures dropping into the 40s. KCI Airport dropped to 45° and St. Joseph dipped into the 30s with a low of 39°. It will be a gorgeous day with light winds and temperatures recovering into the lower 70s this afternoon, and then a huge warm-up will surge in here on Wednesday ahead of our next cold front. Here is a look at the 850 mb forecast valid at 7 PM Wednesday as the next front approaches. This is the 5,000 foot level above sea level:
The red and purple solid lines are the isotherms, lines of equal temperatures. The 18°C line is passing by KC as we move into tomorrow evening and this indicates to us that it will warm nicely into the 80s tomorrow ahead of the first of two fronts that will move through before the end of the week. The first front will weaken as it passes by Wednesday night, and the second front will be approaching and moving through early Friday and this second front may be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms.
Take a look at this picture I snapped yesterday afternoon in the park across the street from KSHB-TV. The first color of the season:
Have a great Tuesday, and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go in-depth into the weathercast tonight on 41 Action News. Brett Anthony will be on all morning with updates as the new data rolls in.
Gary
I’m pretty sure the northwest flow component lacked most of the LRC from ’11-’12. This northwest flow w/ sequential cold fronts has to be part of the new LRC for this winter. This leads me to believe we will have long periods of cold air, though I’m not completly sold on the snow potential.
Anthony,
I do not believe this at all. This is just an amplification of the old pattern. This is the reason it was so dry this past year. A new pattern is just at it’s extreme early stages of development. Watch closely in the next three to eight weeks and I guarantee you will look back at this mid-September pattern and see that it was old and not new.
The active southern stream is a good sign, f00dl3.
Did ok on rain yesterday, relatively speaking, here in the Northland. Sprinkles fell with fropa just after 4 pm, and figured that was it. Then had heavy downpour lasting several minutes just after sunset, and ended up with 0.22 inches of rain.
How do you explain all the changes that have taken place over the past couple weeks that have not been evident for a long time, Gary? What makes you say things are the same when virtually every other meteorologist has noted a switch in weather pattern to that of a fall/winter setup? Can you explain your reasoning as opposed to just disagreeing with facts?
John. Because according to Gary’s theory, LRC will be setting up between the end of September and early November. Even though the pattern is changing right now as you clearly stated, he won’t consider that a “new’ change in weather pattern because the change doesn’t fall within that time frame.
John – I’m with you.
Isaac really tossed the summer pattern out the window – that’s when things really changed right around the first of the month. Since then, we’ve seen multiple rainfall events and even locations in the viewing area that will end with above average rainfall for either August or September as a result.
Not only have precip chances changed considerably, but so has the flow…and the resultant temperatures. A beautiful thing after this crazy drought.
I think to stubbornly claim that this is the ‘same’ pattern is to ignore the actual evidence. Just because one tries to stubbornly claim the pattern is the same doesn’t make it so.
Jerry,
It may seem as if I am stubborn. I am not sure why you feel this way, but in my mind I am consistent, not stubborn. I am open to any possibilities. If the new pattern sets up earlier I would be the first to tell you that is what I see. It just isn’t what I have seen, nor do I see in this current transition. This huge trough forming near the Great Lakes into Canada fits last year’s pattern well.
Gary
Gary, I agree w/ you…The Ridge that has plagued the western CONUS continues…I(KFC) also believe the pattern, LRC, is still in play…As I have mentioned in earlier blogs, the LRC has existed this season…The upper/mid level jet stream has consistently stayed north this year…The trough in the eastern part of the U.S. is much deeper at this present time…Way to many theories to speculate the reason(s),but to wish it were further west…Untill the mid/upper level ridge breaks down over head, the prec. will avoid us(midwest/high plains)…Keep up the good work., Kevin
John and Jerry,
As autumn approaches and summer comes to an end the jet stream strength, the upper level flow energy increases. This increasing energy is the beginning of the new pattern, but at first I strongly believe it re-energizes the old pattern in the transition. Although this “may” be a slightly different pattern the results have mostly been similar in my opinion. Isaac got just far enough west to produce the amazing amount of rain, and then last week’s rain materialized at the last second and brought us a nice soaking. These were two nice rain events, but if you remember during the winter months….well, we had some nice rain events as well.
It is just the way I see it. A unique weather pattern will be evolving soon.
Gary
According to the National Climatic Data Center reported Monday, 2012 is one of the hottest year on record “http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/18/2012-hottest-year-on-record-federal-agency-says/?hpt=hp_bn1″
*years*
I am loving this cool weather! It is great weather to recover from the back surgery. I hope tomorrow will not be has hot as forecasted.
What’s the chance this dry pattern will repeat? Could we go into a pattern like what happened last year in the southwestern part of the country. They had the dry spring and summer then they had the wet fall and winter. Will be interesting to see the long range forecast from Gary. It can’t be as bad as last years long range forecast
Ed, were you able to take a trip to the Gulf and lend a hand with the Isaac cleanup efforts?
Justin,
My thoughts too…
People keep saying things like “this is the worst drought ever” “this is the hottest year ever” “this is the most severe heat wave ever” “omg global warming we’re all doomed” – So help me understand this: Per the National Weather Service, at KCI airport the summer average temp from 6/1 – 8/31 was 79.6 F. Since then we have been running slightly below average. In terms of Kansas city, we have had hotter summers. 1834: 84.9 F. 1936: 84.4 F. 1954: 82.6 F. 1901: 81.9 F, 1953: 81.2 F, 1913: 80.9 F, 1918: 80.8 F, 1952: 80.5 F, 1937: 80.3 F, 1980: 80.2 F, 1956: 80.0 F, 1963: 79.9 F, 1938 & 1957: 79.8 F, 2010: 79.7 F. This summer actually ranks #16.
That in perspective, yes, the entire year has been quite warm. Drought and heat patterns each of the afformentioned years set up differently – eithere the drought was more severe north of here with us being in the southern extent (specifically the ’80s) – the drought being more south of here some of those years (see last year) – and nation wide droughts (especially in the ’30s.)
I’m willing to go out on a limb that in the 1800s there were many more hot and dry summers that our records don’t indicate. 1700s may have been a bit cooler thanks to the cool spell during some of those years, but the point I’m driving at is our accurate records only go back so far – and most of the accurate measurements are land only areas – specifically in the US only. How can we say the entire planet is warming off of only 20-30 years of somewhat accurate data? In the grand scheme of things, this is at least very sloppy science!
I would agree that the pattern has changed. It seems that everything has been ahead of schedule this year. If things have been ahead of schedule by a month or so then it would seem plausible that the “LRC” could be ahead of schedule as well.
It appears that Christa had a breast reduction surgery done. Does anyone else think this? Great weather!!