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Huge Snowfall Amounts Are Likely

Good morning bloggers,

Winter Storm Timeline:

  • Now through Monday morning rush hour:  Dry!
  • Monday morning: Cloudy but staying dry
  • Monday afternoon: Increasing chance of snow/sleet, but it may hold off a few more hours
  • Monday night:  Snow likely. Thunderstorms with heavy snow in many spots

The new data is rolling in, if this blog goes down at all I am also writing a blog on the Weather 2020 site. The new data continues to show a major snowstorm centered over our viewing area and just south of Kansas City. Here are the advisories:

Blog1

 

This next map is just our initial snowfall prediction. We will update this with some adjustments later. There will likely be spots that get close to two feet of snow from this storm system.

Blog3

Snow 3

I am still analyzing and writing…and it appears the blog may be working again…..

The 850 mb level is around 5,000 feet above the surface. This storm system is forecast to develop a very effective snow making machine. Take a look at the 850 mb forecast valid at 3 AM Tuesday morning:

1

I will finish this blog entry by around 10 AM….

Thank you for being patient while the blog has had some technical problems.  We are working on getting this issue fixed permanently.

Gary

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551 comments to Huge Snowfall Amounts Are Likely

  • 2soccerboyz

    That’s a lot of snow for KC! Can’t wait to read your write-up! Thank you, Gary!!

  • Allollie

    Thanks Gary!!!

  • Perky

    Looking forward to a forecast with timing, specific snow amounts per location, duration of storm. All that stuff!

  • Kole Christian

    Thanks Gary, looks like we might get hammered again after all.

  • thundercolt

    Awesome Gary!!

  • HeatMiser

    I thought this was going to be an extensive blog…is more coming?

  • Skylar

    I got a few error messages a second ago, but this is much better than yesterday. Thanks for the updates!

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    Woohooo! My driveway is about a 1/4 mile long… It took two days of shoveling to get it passable with the last storm… This might be rough. I need a plow.

    Love having the snow though! It seems winter was just stocking up for a big finish! They might need to think about getting a different groundhog though… It doesn’t look like an early spring so far!

  • Troll Miser

    Suddenly the guy on Craigslist looking to get rid of his snowblower is the most popular dude in town.

  • thundercolt

    Jeff is going to put em up on tv here in a couple minutes new data still rolling in!!!

  • lvksguy

    Not happy to see it, but thanks Gary. Guess I’ll go fight the crowds at the store now.

  • LBF1958

    Saw a funny picture on Facebook of a church outdoor sign. “Whoever is praying for snow–please stop!” LOL

  • Freeze Miser

    Happy dance, snow dance!

  • HeatMiser

    Wait, one map shows 8-15 for our area, then another says 12-20 possible for our area. So, 8-20 inches for our area. LoL…could we mabye be a little more specific? I mean, it’s better than “an inch to a lot more”, but common.

  • thundercolt

    Jeff just posted 41action news (forecasted)totals on tv same as above leaving open the option for higher totals to slam metro!!!

  • craigmac

    From the NWS Pleasant Hill. the higher totals in the
    8 to 10 inch range stretch from the KC metro through Macon.

  • HeatMiser

    WSW for Lawrence says 10-13 inches along and south of I-70. North 6-10.

  • mgsports

    To much Snow and Cold Rain would just turn it into Ice and don’t need that. Also need to find a way to add 41.3 and move Weather Plus their.

  • MusicTeach

    What is the criteria for bumping a watch to a warning? I’m surprised we haven’t been bumped yet.

  • Skylar

    The new NAM is a more manageable 6-12″ with 8-12″ south and 6-10″ on the north side

  • mgsports

    Oh it needs to go North the front and the one to the South that’s has Severe Weather with it needs to come our way.

  • blue8091

    Holy Cow Batman! I am speechless. I’m down for giving Gary a break for today because we all know he has a few days of no sleep coming again…as does Jeff…well the whole station actually. I think it’s safe to forecast all forms of winter weather possible, major accumulations and hang on to your hat Margaret :D

  • Overbrook

    Wow! East end of the 15-20 inch zone here. If this verifies, Kansas Turnpike (along with a lot of other locales) is going to be decimated by a direct shot along much of its length.

    Looks like a potentially dangerous situation setting up. Thanks KSHB weather crew for not pulling punches and letting folks know that it could be a devestating situation.

    Now where will I put all this snow?

    • Twistersis

      Someone mentioned the impact of all this snow on roofs. Can anyone (engineers?) give any details? We’ve already had two public building roofs cave in.

    • nofluer

      “Kansas Turnpike … is going to be decimated”

      The snow will only fall on one in ten miles?

  • u10girls

    One of the competitors just said that the metro will only get 6-10″. Did they miss the new data of do they need to go to this blog to get the correct info.

  • Skylar

    The biggest difference is less moisture on this run, otherwise the track is fairly similar to the previous models.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054″

  • snowdayhope

    I, like everyone else, am hoping the blog stays up and running. But I must say that the blog on weather2020 is a nice alternative! Anyway I’m writing in response to the school closing conversation on the last blog entry and I am guessing that Olathe will not close tomorrow because it is supposed to stay dry during most of the day. They also do not dismiss early because it is their philosophy that students are safer at school than trying to find their way home in the middle of the day. They will let parents come get their kids early though. So I am hoping that the weather really does take a slow approach because we really should get at least one day of school in before more snow. Funny, we worked only Tuesday, Wednesday last week and I’m thinking we will be out Tuesday, Wednesday this week!

  • Troll Miser

    I don’t like the latest NAM. Call me greedy, but I was hoping for a bigger snowpocalypse.

  • MikeL

    I hate to be the lone ranger but the bulk of this storm may miss us to the south leaving our area on the northern fringe giving perhaps 2-8 inch type snow amounts at best.

    It is still more than a day away and the models continue to track it further south. The 12z NAM has shifted south and continues the delay of bringing snow here again.

    If the south shifts on the models don’t stop now we miss this altogether. This storm has lots of uncertainty.

    • Skylar

      It doesn’t actually shift south, it has been trending towards less moisture. But still, lets hope the GFS doesn’t agree.

      • MikeL

        The heavy snow track has shifted south on the 12z NAM and, yes, with less moisture. Topeka NWS has also expressed concerns in the morning AFD.

        The trends have not been favorable and for anyone who has lived in the area for any length of time knows that we have been burned many times before.

        Still more than a day away so the track is still highly uncertain. It will be interesting to see what the 12z suite of models show this morning.

      • Twistersis

        Is this one of those “weatherman’s woe” kind of deals?!

    • HeatMiser

      No, actually I think you like it.

  • weatherkcmo

    The new NAM cuts our totals in half. Time will tell though.

  • joweatherisso....

    Let the snow begin to shine as when a sunbeam hits that bright thing in your yard

  • Skylar

    From Wichita:

    DID CONSIDER A BLIZZARD WARNING…BUT…WANTED TO LET LATER SHIFTS BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINE THE AREA THAT WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE FACT THAT A BLIZZARD WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED THIS MORNING…WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE ISSUED LATER IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS IT IS NOW. THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME…THIS STORM WILL NOT BE LIKE THE LAST ONE…WIND WILL BE A LARGE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR…BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.

  • f00dl3

    Can’t deny the 12z NAM & NAM high res do kind of put the stuff further south.

  • weatherkcmo

    That’s for their area. The same might not hold true for ours.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    If they storm comes in around noon.. They are better off calling school off tomorrow.. Because buses trying to get home.. and High school students driving crazy on the bad roads.. The timing seems to be changing a bit.. So what im saying.. if that storm comes in around noon. They should call school off

  • weatherkcmo

    Hope the GFS stays the course!

  • MikeL

    Looks like Gary has reposted a snow map on this blog entry that shows a further south track…and compare it to the older snow forecast snow amounts map right above it (that shows the 15-20 inches up near Topeka).

  • Wildcat

    TWC has lowered the snow amounts to 4-6 inches for Olathe. It is very unlikely they will call school off as testing begins this week.

  • stjoeattorney

    a SPRINGFIELD STORM in the end, it is sliding south i am 4-5 now. missed again.

    Give the team ball for posting the numbes it did i just watched it.

  • snowlover71

    Ok, so now you have me freaked that we will get NOTHING! Just seems everyone is saying we will get pounded a day out… could they be wrong? Can I not be excited until the snow starts to fall? Was going to go to the store to get stuff for some yummy comfort food, but now maybe I won’t. :( I want more SNOW!

  • fire508

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Still showing 10-14 and its just 1 model run.

  • kstatemallards

    How will these two storms affect the drought conditions here?

  • Tim

    Well, I wonder if we will get Jim Cantore in our area this time around? Hope the storm stays the track we have now, the more Southern track is worrying me a bit.

  • MikeL

    The message this morning should be:

    The storm track remains uncertain and the storm may track further south sparing our area the brunt of the storm. The storm is still over a day and a half away so trends should be monitored for further shifts in the forecast track resulting in more or less snow.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    If this storm was going to go poof or not give us snow. I don’t think Gary would have put those maps up.

  • hippygoth

    How crazy, two years of 40″+ snows, then record low snowfall amount, this year two potential whopper snowfalls with a few days.

    As annoying as huge snows are, hopefully it’s a sign of a potential drought breaker this Spring.

    H.

  • erock89

    its just one model run guys lets take a deep breathe and see what the GFS does. I remember with the last storm the GFS got off course and people were freaking out until the NAM came out again and stayed its course then the GFS came out got back on course. So before we start saying the “P” word lets wait awhile see what the GFS says and let mother nature do her thing. Either way we are lucky enough to get 2 storms back to back to track, it has be alot of fun!

  • lsx347

    Id love to see another monster storm but i think this ones going for a stroll

  • snowdayhope

    Are we seriously retracting on this storm. I know data can be telling but does a foot if snow really go p*** this close to surfacing? Or are we experiencing denial? Oh we’ll, headed to the store anyway as I was wiped out from the last one.

  • kcweatherGEEK

    I’ve had enough.

  • HeatMiser

    Okay, all you morons who see the slightest wiggle in the storm and start saying dimwitted stuff like, “its going to miss us, we’re done”, SHHHHHH!!!!

    • stjoeattorney

      i never bought into this event or non event from the start. i had only talked in general terms until today. as much as i would love to have anothe good snow this is not the one, waiut til’ nov of 2013 or april 10 or so when this cycles back.

    • erock89

      HeatMiser hahaha I know its ridiculous! People need to take a chill pill it was only one run lets see what the GFS says and the next NAM before we start freaking out

  • R-Dub

    It’s not really just one model run. the trend to the south has been consistent. And that’s also what happened with the last storm, which is why metro KC never got the sleet.

    So it’s not that the storm is going poof, just that the “huge snowfall amounts” seem a lot more likely south of the metro.

    • fire508

      Actually it did sleet and frez drizzle, as they said, with the last storm. It just didn’t do it as long as they thought.

      • R-Dub

        The freezing drizzle is a separate thing, completely unrelated to the predicted sleet.

        The sleet was expected during the time of heavy convective precip. And it didn’t happen. We got zero sleet at my house near downtown OP. I have not heard any reports of sleet from the KC metro.

    • MikeL

      Thank you R-Dub…exactly what I am saying. Still, the storm hasn’t begun so we can see where the models trend and where it exactly sets-up.

      • nofluer

        My call is that the storm will track South East into central AR and that the main snow fall will be in S MO and central to N AR where it will pick up some moisture from the gulf, then it will go E to NE and N MO and S IA will pick up some wrap-around moisture Late Tues and/or Wed. Eventually it will probably cover the Eastern part of the country… and without doubt drop significant wetness on NJ because they need it so badly and because it’s such a NICE place. I do not see excessive snowfall in KC… but I could be wrong. ;-D

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    What do you guys think about school?

  • HeatMiser

    I think school is a fine institution of learning for all of our young kids.

    • Twistersis

      Especially if they have exceptional shoveling skills.

    • stjoeattorney

      I agree with you on school and mine were fine institutions.

      • nofluer

        I only noticed the “institution” part, having learned to read from my mother. By first grade I was getting in trouble because the Dick and Jane books were stupid and repetitious, and by 5th grade I was conning adults and older kids to check out books for me from the public library that were considered “adult” reading. (“Adult books then were different than they are today – being classified as such because of the difficulty of the words and concepts.) I read “The Grapes of Wrath” in 5th grade and still remember my favorite quote from it, and my favorite authors were Hemingway and Steinbeck. Yeah… for me school was an “institution” where I was imprisoned during the day. :-/

        • stjoeattorney

          Keep in mind when I went to school kindegarden was half day, learned to print you ABCs, numbers, gym, and take a nap.

          • nofluer

            Yep. Me too. I hated naps too. I was an ornery little cuss. Spent most of my time on the tall stool in the corner. ;-D

  • dragonfly

    Gary thanks for your dedication and determination in keeping this blog updated and going! Heat and Freeze you crack me up! I have to say that these storms have caused me grief! I haven’t been able to keep my department stocked and sold out of my last order in a day with the last threat. I’m so glad I’m not working today but I’ll pay dearly for it tomorrow! I did learn my lesson though the last time and ordered my biggest produce order ever on Thurs last week…I shouldn’t run out of anything this time even if my truck doesn’t make it out of KC till Wed this week. I’ve had record sells this past week!

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah its been trending south for a while now.

  • Lilydale

    School all depends on the timing of the weather system and when it will start. If schools go a half day, they hope to have lunch in for the kids before they go home whether hot or cold. It could be done if early dismissal needed, but can be hectic with schedule. If the system really holds off till late afternoon, easily a half or full day fulfilled!

  • HeatMiser

    Someone on the other blog just asked Gary if the storm could go too far south and this was his response:

    “It is so large with the precipitation shield. The bulls eye hasn’t been completely defined yet, but there will be high totals over a large area and Kansas City is near that area.”

  • weather

    The storm has been trending a bit furthr south. Like others have said take a deep breath and lets see what the next set of model runs show.

    Heat Miser I think you need BA (bloggers annonymous) LOL.

  • weather

    I think the IT people ought to take down all the ads to help the blog run smoother :)

  • Lilydale

    HeatMiser needs to go outside for a while and calm that hairdo down! LOL Don’t stay out too long though….we want SNOW to come!

  • Troll Miser

    12z GFS starting to report… fingers crossed

  • HeatMiser

    Did my brother Freeze Miser put you up to saying that!

  • weather

    Snow Magedon 2 The Sequel coming soon to the midwest! This promises to be whiter and bogger then the last! Free preview Monday and Tuesday!

  • sojoxowx

    One model one run…lets just calm down, maybe Gary having a 1/2 million dollar weather degree knows and sees something we don’t? it will snow!!!!

  • weather

    oops whiter and bigger

  • craigmac

    Guessing this to go South of KC even more than models are showing. KC metro will still get amount.

  • Troll Miser

    12z GFS at 42h is already looking better

  • kc_chiefs201182

    So Gary what does all this snow mean for April and May ???? Will we see more rain for Spring and Summer ???

  • sticks435

    Looks like GFS is trending south too. Still alot for us, but not the huge totals. at 48 hours it’s 10-16.

  • Skylar

    GFS shows 10-18″ with a 20″ south of the metro. It hasn’t shifted south more than a few miles, the models are mostly trending towards slightly less crazy amounts of moisture.

  • The storm is digging farther south. I would not be shocked to see the NWS move the WSW several counties south.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051″

    Still looking at 10-18 with bulk of moisture I70 south

  • Skylar

    Any shift on this isn’t significant enough to say it’s going south. The bigger trend is less moisture. Even then, this GFS shows 12-18″ for KC with up to 2 feet just to our southeast.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051″

  • HeatMiser

    Even if we just got 8-12 inches guys, with all the blowing and drifting it will shut everything down.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    I think the snowfall map is right in line with the latest GFS run. Real test will be to see how far storm actually digs south. If it shallows out by even 10 miles the metro area will get over a foot.

  • Skylar

    I wish somebody would show me because I don’t see how this is farther south.

    12z: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_057_precip_ptot.gif”

    06z: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_063_precip_ptot.gif”

  • lsx347

    Wonderful news gary

  • HeatMiser

    A competitor news station now calling for blizzard conditions Monday night.

  • fire508

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

  • sojoxowx

    Gary: if the last storm was the lrc version of the new years eve storm, then is this the Mexico storm or the one that missed us by like 20 miles to the east in early January?

  • hoeperk2

    Keep in mine kc only averages one 6 in snowstorm every two years. This could be two in 5 days. Se still have 5 more model runs before this starts. Should be a fun ride

  • If this keeps up I’ll be teaching well into June.

  • 8-15″… I’ll take it!! Don’t let this storm slide any further south though! I love it!

  • sojoxowx

    Whoa….GFS blasted us!!!!

  • Freeze Miser

    You guys were talking about me while I’m rehearsing at Church. Please keep harassing Heat Miser about his ill temper…and that hair.

    Fear not snow lovers, KC is still my territory and it will snow a lot!

    • HeatMiser

      Be careful you don’t freeze to death brother. You should be more like me, hot, Hot, HOT! Sing it guys!

      He’s Mister
      Heat Miser
      He’s Mr. Sun
      He’s Mr. Heat Blister
      He’s Mr. 101

      I’ll take it from here boys

      Whatever I touch
      Starts to melt in my clutch, sing it guys

      He’s too much! Heh heh, true, so true

    • stjoeattorney

      Church have not been for 10 years except funerals it is a scam.

  • Cacti51

    I keep pinching myself to make sure this isn’t a dream and that I then wake up to reality. I could never have imagine two huge storms in row right on top of each other. This next one is going to be difficult to measure!

  • f00dl3

    I think people on this blog are overdoing the blowing and drifting factor hype. This is going to be a heavy, wet snow – not a fluffy dry snow. Heavy, wet snows are hard to blow around. I wouldn’t read too deep into drifting concerns. Chances are the snow may not even accumulate all the time much as the one we had back in December where for at least half the snow storm it fell but never stuck. With temperatures right at freezing or above and snowfall spread out over a 36 hour period, it’s not going to cause as many issues with travel as the last one did where it came down at 3-4″/hour and temperatures were 22-24 degrees.

    • HeatMiser

      sHHHH FOOD…we will be upgraded to a blizzard warning tomorrow…there will be plenty of drifting….yu Troll, shhhh!

  • fire508

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=081

    Still accu at hr 81 over 12in+

  • Skylar

    I like how TWC’s home page shows that New England might a few rain and snow showers, while there are winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings across the plains. That’s not as important? Okay. :)

  • kcweatherGEEK

    Why do so many people in here no more than trained experts? Snowflagration 2013!

  • kcweatherGEEK

    know I mean…oops.

  • I think it is funny how all you all are going nuts over this I am at a wait and see situation here but at the same time I have learned my lesson I am going spread rock salt all around my car and on my sidewalk let that do the work. I am going to enjoy this snow if it doesn’t go poof.

  • f00dl3

    Do those snowfall maps assume it’s all snow even if thickness is above 540 and surface temperatures near 40 degrees?!

    If you look at the GFS it shows it at 34-38 degrees most of the event. Snow wouldn’t even stick (possibly not even fall given 540 temps above freezing) until after 3 AM TUE.

    10M Wind Temps – GFS 12z +36 hr
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_036_10m_wnd_precip.gif”
    10M Wind/Temps – GFS 12z +45 hr
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_045_10m_wnd_precip.gif”

    1000-500MB Thickness – GFS 12z +45 hr – JUST past the KC metro.
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_045_1000_500_thick.gif”

    36 hour precip accumulation GFS 12z valid from 45-81 hr
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_081_precip_p36.gif”

    * This last image would be the amount of precipitation as ALL SNOW. Looks to be about 2-4″ of snow based on this.

    • Tim

      Isn’t that last image just 36 hours out, they are saying most of the precip will just have started by then, so 2-4″ within the first few hours is actually a lot of snow, the next 12 hours after that will be even more like 6 to 10 inches more….right??

    • HeatMiser

      Disregard everything Food says…he always tries to downplay stuff…TROLL!!!!

      • Tim

        Got it, will do. He seems to be a bit early in his images anyway.

      • R-Dub

        He’s actually using data to support his point, while you use only insults and exclamation points. So who’s the troll?

        • HeatMiser

          Mabye you’re right. All of the experts are wrong and Food is right. LoL..think before you speak.

          • R-Dub

            Look, I’m not saying he’s right or wrong. But he is using actual data to make his argument. Therefore, he’s doing what people are supposed to do on the weather blog.

            You, on the other hand, are not making any arguments based on real data. You’re just insulting people you disagree with. Which is what people are not supposed to do on this blog.

            Right or wrong, his posts add a lot more to this blog than yours, which are nothing but weak jokes and insults.

            • HeatMiser

              Catch up bone brain. Do a little research before you defend trolls. He’s wrong all the time and tries to sabatoge weather lovers enjoyments of storms. Now go away.

            • TSC

              Have you ever watched the old HeatMiser shows? He is supposed to be insulting…it’s part of the fun. Everyone chill, let’s get back to figuring this storm out. Here’s for hoping for high moisture and a more northerly track (slightly more North).

        • TSC

          Love the use of data, but is it the correct data? Stats/Data can be used to support almost any outcome you want, so correct data is important.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      You are painting a picture in my mind on how you approach things…

      Anyway, here is something you might find useful

      “http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmci”

    • Skylar

      That is a good point, but if it were something to worry about, I think a bigger deal would’ve been made about it by the mets and the NWS.

    • snowplowman

      Won’t stick to……………snow?

    • Dobber

      Go bury your head in the snow Todd!

  • mowermike

    WOW! What a wild finish to winter.

    This storm may very well produce two smaller snows Tuesday night and sometime Wed. Data indicating waves rotating around the main ULL> This could be similiar to the X-mas blizzard back in 2009 where we had 2 smaller 1-3 inch snows following the main event. Also looks very cold(15-25 degrees below average for days to come)

    Should we see 10 inches or more, this city will be in big trouble for the next several weeks. Driving lanes in areas of the city are already skinny now, it will be hard to stack it any further.

    Good news for our drought, which is improving.

    • sedsinkc

      Mike, my subdivision in KC North is still a wretched mess today. KCMO did a pi$$ poor job of plowing our neighborhood, as I feared they might. We never know how well they’ll do it. Now it’s packed into about 4 inches of ice with some melted areas that are like potholes and ruts so it’s like driving cross-country. We called the city and went online to file a written request yesterday and I think *maybe* a plow came by and made it a little better than it was yesterday, but it’s still wretched when everywhere else we’ve been this weekend the streets are plowed and dry.

  • dragonfly

    F00dl3 why you want to rain on our parade? :( I’ve been patiently awaiting my blizzard and it looks like it’s finally going to happen and you come in at 2-4 that’s the small side of the stick if you ask me but I’m no expert, I’m sticking with Gary!

  • Lilydale

    FreezeMiser, glad you are at church so we can hassle HeatMiser. I say, if all comes true on the storm, HeatMiser must slick down that hair of his…let Jack Frost do his work! Keep reporting the new updates! Love the snow…look forward to spring!

  • Lilydale

    The piles of snow will be so high…snowplowers, please do not dump the snow at intersections….I’ll need a crane to get to work.

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Gary, where’s the promised 10:00 blog update?

  • snow55

    Gary, what is your thinking on Columbia, MO? Do you think they could be in on the heavier snow?

  • dragonfly

    I thought Gary was going to be updating around 10….am I being to inpatient? Lol

  • Kole Christian

    Anything more than 4 inches and I’m happy.

  • HeatMiser

    Food does this all the time and he’s wrong all the time…professional troll. Catch up dude.

  • Freeze Miser

    You all do your snow dance for me. I’m going into worship service. Off the grid until noon.

  • shoedog

    Funny what one big storm does for everyone’s perspective. We would have killed for a 3-6 inch event two weeks ago, now anything that doesn’t dump 8-10 inches is disappointing. Fun tracking an active weather pattern.

  • Joseph Tay

    This storm will miss us (for the most part)

  • HeatMiser

    I was just reading Gary’s updated blog on 2020. We are gonna get dumped on guys…get ready.

  • dragonfly

    Now Heaty! Chill you know what happens when you get hot! Lol ;)

  • rkcal

    really warming up out there with a nice south breeze. Any chance this becomes a rain event?

  • Skylar

    If you read through TOP’s AFD, they have a very well written and explained forecast. It’s worth reading the whole thing, not just this section.

    FINAL SNOWFALL ESTIMATES…BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS RANGE FROM AROUND 8 TO 10 INCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM SALINA TO HIAWATHA. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE HAVE GONE WITH SNOWFALL ESTIMATES NEARING 1 FOOT OF SNOW…ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THERE. EXPECT TOPEKA AND LAWRENCE TO APPROACH A FOOT OF SNOW…WITH PERHAPS VALUES NEARING 14 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

    “http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TOP&issuedby=TOP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1″

  • f00dl3

    Yeah I see how that data I put up earlier is wrong then based on text output :)

    Really starting to wonder here – so the 500MB layer doesn’t really matter as much – it’s the 850 that determines the precipitation type? Saw this with the last storm too – models had us warm at the 500 layer but when push came to shove it was all snow. Starting to think it’s wise to just throw out that 540 line all together.

    • PILOT MISER

      That line is not set in stone but a rough idea. Read up on the 540 line and you will see it is but one factor for snow transition. Many other variables play into snow even above 540.

    • WxCursed

      The 540 line is a rough estimate. It’s based on the average temperature of the column of air. In the case of warm air advection events (like this and the last one), the warmer layer can increase the column thickness, BUT as long as it stays below freezing the entire layer, then it would be entirely snow. You can look at the 850 or 700 mb maps to see if the temperatures at those layers are above freezing, but you can also look at forecast soundings to get a better idea of the thermal profile of the column of air (and thus precip type).

  • HeatMiser

    Gary’s update on other blog:

    This is quite strong and I am very impressed with how this is developing.

    Denver, Dodge City, Gage, Wichita, and Kansas City are in the direct path of the heaviest snow
    There will likely be extremely high snowfall totals with some areas getting between 1 and 2 feet with locally higher totals
    Thunderstorms with snow are likely in the heaviest spots
    The track will come more into focus later tonight and Monday

    This is a dangerous and high impacting storm system that will create many problems. The temperatures are going to be closer to 32 degrees which will increase the water content in the snow, and it will be a heavily weighted snow compared to the last storm.

  • erock89

    Did I just read Garys 2020 blog correctly… thundersnow in the heavy areas!?!? Isnt thundersnow pretty rare, I heard a stat that said one percent of snow storms have thundersnow. Having two storms with thundersnow within a week apart would be pretty amazing!

  • dragonfly

    He’s an attorney….that says it all. Probably was once but that kinda work would tend to poison anyone….should of become a weatherman! ;)

    • Grumpy

      Nice one. Hate on an entire profession because of sheer ignorance. Stick to weather-related banter.

      • dragonfly

        Please don’t assume I meant anything derogatory towards attorneys…I just meant with all they are exposed to it would be difficult and make you question. He was the one who called religion a scam…sorry.

  • HeatMiser

    Predict school on Monday, no school of Tues or Wed

  • weather

    Can’t waitto dig out again. I hope all thise kids kept those shovels in good shape! This town will be shut down again.

  • donovan1972

    That’s it I’m salting the roof and putting heaters in the attic !!!!!

  • f00dl3

    I’m am becoming concerned about the roof collapse potentials across the metro. I have a “medium sloped” roof but it’s not extremely pitched. I removed snow from the deck to prevent extra weight on the deck but due to the fact the snow is on the west side (the side I would climb up on) I was unable to climb up there. The east facing side of the roof has pretty much snow snow on it. Most of the west facing side has 8″ to as much as nearly 2 feet in one spot on the northwest corner already. Add this expected 10-(20?)” of heavy wet snow on top of it and this worries me. I’m hopeful that some melting of that one area will occur today.

    House was built in 1966. Roof was just installed when I bought the house last January (it’s a “30 year roof.)” Again, it’s a medium sloped “hip” type roof.

    • FF814

      We were talking about this at the firehouse last night. I think you’ll be ok Food, but I’m more concerned about the large warehouse buildings. Flat roof + tons of snow = bad news. I’m sure if we get what they’re predicting, there could be several collapses. Already saw a few with the storm a few days ago.

    • Grumpy

      If you can access any frozen gutters safely (emphasis on safely)…gently pour hot water until they run free. Do not chip or pound on your shingles. Get the gutters flowing. That’s important to help avoid water infiltration and further damage.

    • PaolaWeatherNewbie

      Snow melted off my roof already. All the roofs around me are empty of the white stuff actually. Must be more sun hitting down here…

  • rkcal

    I think the poof factor is high here. Too warm!

  • f00dl3

    *The east facing side of the roof has pretty much no snow on it

  • Rick

    Can anyone explain how the state and local DOTs get away with not clearing all lanes of traffic? 3 days after a major storm and there are still lanes blocked on I-35, I was headed down to 119th street and the exit lanes seemed to be open and suddenly it narrowed to 2-3 ft, very dangerous when traveling 65mph+, you have to react quickly and hope no one is next to you. Maybe a news crew can figure this out while they are camped outside the salt dome for the next few days!

    • f00dl3

      It’s gonna be really bad if we get what it looks like out of this next one. There were several places on College on my bike ride in this morning where I had to ride in the center lane because of snow mounds blocking the far right lane. The ramp from I-35 NB to 95th St is bad – coming back from an event last night nearly got rear ended by a semi because I didn’t realize I had to use 2 lanes to take the exit!

    • Troll Miser

      I was just talking about this yesterday. If someone was tailing a car pretty closely and the car in front wasn’t paying attention and moves over at the last second, it’d be disastrous

  • Kcchamps

    lates GFS has 14-18″ for the metro

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    NAM gives the metro 10-14″

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • Rick

    Better yet, where are they going to put another foot of snow? We’ll be back to 2 lane interstates!

  • nofluer

    Can’t see Gary’s maps on 2020. He uses Flash there – and I don’t have Flash. (It’s a security hazard – it’s the same as allowing .EXE programs to download and initiate.)

    • Twistersis

      Really?? :[

      • Only if you don’t keep things updated. He is just finding something else to complain about.

        • nofluer

          Tell it to the hospital that my son works at in IN – they (and many other large corps) have banned Flash as a potential security hazard.

          As to the complaining – Not complaining – just stating facts. I can live without the 2020 site.

          • And this goes back to keeping software up to date. It is a lot easier for you as a single home user to keep something like flash updated than it is a large corporation that has hundreds to thousand of computers and also have to worry about the impact that update may have on other softwares in use.

            The only way to guarantee safety from online security issues is to unplug your computer from the internet.

      • spaceotter

        I’ve NEVER had a problem with flash. Like penguin said, keep your software updated and carry a good virus protection and you won’t have any issues.

  • networkguy

    Once again us up north are going to be shorthanded -.- Hey south metro, enjoy you’re historic winter storm. Us in Liberty will watch it on Tv.

  • tishey99

    I have never posted on this blog but follow it and have for a long time. I am just now figuring out the NAM and GFS maps sort of. I live in Harrisonville. In your opinions does it look like we will get dumped on down here as usual?

  • weather

    Gary went to the movies so I wouldn’t expect a blog update until later this afternoon.

    • bellmartin

      He’s re-viewing “The Day After Tomorrow” to get him in the proper frame of mind for his next blog entry!

  • Kole Christian

    Liberty will get plenty, probably 6 inches at least.

  • mgsports

    Yes but Jeff can do one.

  • stjoeattorney

    Time to look for the surface and ULL on satelite movie to see if they are north or south of area forecasted yesterday.

  • Kcchamps

    the latest GFS has a bullseye right over the metro, I have never seen 12″ of snow in my life so it would crazy to see 14, 16, or even 18″+

    • windyinmarshallmo

      Thank you for posting those maps KC! :-) They have been pretty much consistent.

    • PaolaWeatherNewbie

      Lived in Michigan for years, I can remember having feet of snow drop in a weekend. For a snow lover, lake effect is great! But when you move down south further… I’m just happy to see white in a winter after these past couple winters.

  • rkcal

    already well into the 40′s. We’re looking at rain and sleet. They are underestimating the temps.

  • f00dl3

    Should hit the lower 50s today at this rate! That will help the roof issues.

  • Kole Christian

    Some

  • Kole Christian

    Someone doesn’t want it to snow it looks like.

  • f00dl3

    So if it was supposed to be a high of 40 today and it’s already 45 at Noon, what’s to say it won’t be 40 tomorrow, and with cloud cover it would fail to get below freezing, keeping it a rain event?

  • networkguy

    North KCers say it with me POOF

  • PILOT MISER

    I am not sure what you guys are saying about the temps. Just a few weeks ago we want from 74 to 2 degrees in a matter of hours. So saying it is warm today and will lead to rain tomorrow is illogical.

  • fire508

    Just because its over 32 doesn’t mean just rain or sleet. I have seen it snow here at 38. It just depends on how deep the warm layer is and as of right now it does not appear thick at all.

  • kellyinkc

    39 at KCI. good day to build a snowman and go sledding.

  • better_than_you

    I would just like to point out that Gary predicted this thing nearly 2 months ago. I don’t think he said 10″+ of snow, but this storm was predicted well ahead of time by the LRC.

  • McCabe58

    Lol snow haters unite! No way since it’s above 32 today that it will snow TOMORROW. Lol. Wooooooooow. Don’t be fooled people, the snow is coming!!!

  • Kole Christian

    Poof

  • McCabe58

    It’s been said a couple times on here over the past week or two, but could someone tell me how to get a picture with your user name?

  • Saying the word “poof” over and over just to say it, gets annoying real quick guys. Lets stop with it.

    • Twistersis

      It kinda reminds me of children being told not to say “poop”. And then they will use it at every opportunity and giggle at their cleverness!

  • McCabe58

    Better than you, you get the troll trophy of the day! Congratulations!!!

    • networkguy

      Dudes an idiot. Wish we had a block button or ignore option.

    • better_than_you

      Aw, thanks! This is so unexpected! I’d like to thank the Academy, of course. And, I couldn’t have done it without the help of the pseudo-experts on here acting like they know what they’re talking about. Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the collection of people over 40 on here trying to make sense of how to use this magical box in front of them. Finally, huge thanks to the ineptitude of the Midwestern school systems that churn out these people. Keep reaching for the stars, guys!

  • f00dl3

    Heh – I never said because it’s over 32 it’s not gonna snow tomorrow.

    What I was leading at is per coop observations it’s about 44 right now in Overland Park (+5 deg last hour.) Forecast high was 40 degrees. This is 4 degrees over the forecast high.

    If it’s 4 degrees over the forecast high, what’s to say tonight’s low instead of 28 will be 32, and instead of a high of 32 it will be 36. Low Tuesday morning instead of 27 would be 31, and high Tuesday instead of 32 would be 36 again.

    I’m not saying that just because it’s over 32 it won’t snow – I’m just wondering if today’s unexpected warmth will be countered by a stronger front – if not – we may not get as cold as the 7 day indicates.

  • networkguy

    I’d just like to say my comment about POOFing was made in fun. If you don’t like it, sad for you. Its a BLOG. Have some fun and stop being so serious.

  • weatherkcmo

    What’s to say tonight’s low will still be 28 and tomorrow’s high will be 32? What if Tuesday’s low is 27 and high is 31? It can go either way.

  • McCabe58

    What a sad sad little man lol…. Always gotta be one person who tries to ruin a good thing.

  • weatherkcmo

    Ignore him people. It really isn’t that hard.

  • Kole Christian

    Poof goes the storm ;)

    • better_than_you

      And, boom goes the dynamite. No, seriously, I’m talking about JJ’s. Ka-Boom!

      • Normally I dont get caught up in the immature drama on this blog, but your comment went way past the line. Many people were affected by that fire and somebody lost their life. I suggest you watch what you post on here. You have been walkng a fine line and you just crossed it. I can speak for most people here and say you need to exit the blog.

        • HeatMiser

          Honeycutt, I was getting ready to rip you for bragging about how mature you think you are until I read backwards and saw what he said. I agree – better than you, you should be banned for that comment. Extraordinarily inappropriate comment.

        • sheldan

          We need “like” buttons. Nice job Jacob!

  • redavis

    Gary: I am just outside the viewing area in Boone Co a few miles south of Columbia, how much snow do you think could fall in the Columbia/Ashland areas?? NWS in St Louis is worried about warm air & less snowfall potential in central MO. Do you feel Columbia will see winter storm warning issued & see warning criteria snowfall?? Thanks

  • Craig

    Good stuff from the Topeka NWS:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
    1137 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

    GIVEN THAT MODEL QPF HAS BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN REALIZED LIQUID WATER
    EQUIVALENT WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE SYSTEMS HAVE TAKEN A RATHER
    SUBDUED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TOTAL QPF…GOING
    WITH A FRACTION OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 PERCENT MODEL QPF. GIVEN THAT
    MODEL QPF NEARS 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THIS EVENT…WILL
    LIKELY GO WITH A FORECAST THAT BRINGS AROUND .75 TO 1.00 INCH OF
    WATER EQUIVALENT. SNOW RATIOS IN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WERE A BIT
    HIGHER THAN EXPECTED…PERHAPS DUE TO MODELS NOT HANDLING THE COLDER
    AIR VERY WELL. AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS INTRODUCED A ROUGH 13-15
    TO 1 RATIO TO THE QPF VALUES TO OBTAIN A FINAL SNOW AMOUNT.
    GENERALLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FORM ALONG AN AXIS ALONG THE
    KANSAS TURNPIKE…OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THERE. FINAL SNOWFALL
    ESTIMATES…BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS RANGE FROM AROUND 8 TO 10
    INCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM SALINA TO HIAWATHA. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
    THAT LINE HAVE GONE WITH SNOWFALL ESTIMATES NEARING 1 FOOT OF
    SNOW…ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THERE.
    EXPECT TOPEKA AND LAWRENCE TO APPROACH A FOOT OF SNOW…WITH PERHAPS
    VALUES NEARING 14 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. ACROSS THE
    NORTHWESTERN ZONES SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH
    RANGE…BUT ACCUMULATION MAY TAKE UP TO 36 HOURS TO APPROACH THAT
    AMOUNT. THESE VALUES CAN…AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE AS THE MODELS GET
    A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. CONCURRENT WITH THE
    HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE…NEARING 20 TO
    25 MPH…WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
    INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS…APPROACHING 50 KNOTS WILL RESIDE IN
    THE LOW LEVELS…BUT DUE TO LACK LUSTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
    RATES…DO NOT EXPECT THOSE 50 KT GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.

    AS A RESULT OF THE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK…HAVE GONE WITH
    A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA…WHILE LEAVING THE
    WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
    WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND RECENT SOUTHERLY
    TRENDS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES REACHING
    WARNING CRITERIA IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT. MUCH HIGHER
    CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA IS PRESENT IN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH.

  • Skylar

    People, these are just words. If you don’t like what somebody says, ignore it.

  • wxwx9998

    Just out of curiousity, this close to the storm, how much wiggle room is there? For example, are we pretty set on 8-12″ of snow, or is there still a chance that those numbers could vary wildly?

  • sticks435

    Pleasent Hill AFD:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    Basically they still link that KC is only going to get 8-10 in the metro.

  • sticks435

    Pleasent Hill AFD:

    “http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1″

    Basically they still link that KC is only going to get 8-10 in the metro.

  • Kole Christian

    If we are no longer allowed to say poof in an effort to make the storm do the opposite, then what must we tell it to do? Rocky, please kindly take your snow south of us.

  • bethhatessnow

    Why are people saying we didn’t get much in Liberty? I measured a little over 10″ with over 2 ft drifts in my driveway that took me two days to shovel! I’m confused…..

  • sedsinkc

    Gf wanted to get a new snow shovel. I said, “Good luck finding one.” We checked Lowe’s and Walmart, nada. Went to Home Depot. Fortune smiled on us. As we walked in, saw a crowd of people standing around. Then a HD employee said, “the shipment just arrived and we’ll be displaying it by lumber.” Sure enough, over 100 snow shovels being offloaded from a truck. Gf was mighty pleased with herself. Arms and back are recovered, probably stronger than before. Bring on the mighty snows, Arrr!

  • weatherkcmo

    “Only going to get 8-10″ lol. Is that not significant?

    • sticks435

      Considering some of the amounts that were being thrown around, no it isn’t lol. Guess I should be happy with anything considering KC seems to have a weather repellent dome over it most of the time.

  • wxwx9998

    I don’t think Better Than You is Theo…he/she sounds an awful lot like our old friend, Austin_83. Didn’t that guy have like a complete meltdown on here one day?

  • Kole Christian

    or garyrocks41

  • Hail No

    Is there a way that the links people post in there comments be made clickable? It would make things much easy for those of us reading on phones and tablets.

    • sedsinkc

      Some of us, when we try to post direct links, get the dreaded “comment awaiting moderation” which means no one else can see it until someone at 41 approves it.

  • Kcchamps

    it will be very interesting what the next set of models say

  • windyinmarshallmo

    Wow! the blog was going so well. What happened? all the negative posts. SMH!

  • Craig

    And this is brand new from the NWS in Pleasant Hill. 12″+ from KC Metro west-southwestward.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    109 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

    ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
    SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
    TUESDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK AND
    PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL…A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 6 TO 10
    INCHES IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH
    TO TO BETHANY… MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE HIGHER AMOUNTS…POSSIBLY IN
    EXCESS OF 12 INCHES… FROM THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA WEST
    SOUTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
    NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE GREATEST RATE OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE
    MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING… ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
    MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL AT LEAST CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
    TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES… IF NOT MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE
    TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

  • hushpook

    Has KC ever recorded 2 8″+ snowstorms in a 6 day period?

  • Mammatus

    Looking at the latest forecast models, the latest RAP model is showing identical surface low placement to the NAM and GFS for 12z. That doesn’t happen too often. Too bad most everyone is sold out of snowblowers for under $500.

  • icedoggkc

    It’s gonna be a heavy wet snow. Harder to shovel, and more weight on roofs. Not good

  • weather

    Gary went to the movies and didn’t finish the blog! OH MY! He finished the 2020 blog. I guess paid does come before free. It only makes sense hey!

  • Kcchamps

    check out the latest from the HPC!>>

    “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge12_2013022500f048.gif”

    chance of at least 12″ metro is 60-80%

    “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge18_2013022500f048.gif”

    chance of at least 18″ metro is 30-40%

  • Freeze Miser

    Excellent! Keep thinking snowy thoughts.

  • weather

    I’ll see ya mine for $7000.00 LOL

  • Skylar

    The new NAM is coming in, I’m sure there will be several links posted in the next 10-20 minutes.

  • Chiefsfan77

    Wow. This is amazing! Hush…I may be wrong, but I believe I heard someone say that if this pans out, it will be the first time in KC history to have 2 8″+ storms within a week of each other.

  • Mammatus

    Ha! yeah, Luckily time is on our side, Spring will be here soon and I have plenty of food in the fridge. It will melt eventually.

  • kellyinkc

    Just got back from HyVee, it was a zoo. LOL
    Check out my snowblower and its ready for Rocky.

    • kellyinkc

      checked out, LOL

      • hippygoth

        I went by Sams Club this morning to get a few bulk items, there was a line to get in before opening time, never seen that before.

        Last Weds though I did have to use blinkers on my shopping cart to change aisles in a grocery store. People must think we’re in for such a bad storm we’ll be snowed in for a week or four…

        H.

        • Twistersis

          HA! And, speaking for myself, I could stand to eat a couple less meals over the course of a few days until the big dig out when I can reload at the grocery store!

  • McCabe58

    Plenty of snow blowers on Craigslist. I might be the only person who enjoys shoveling lol… Such a good workout

  • TSC

    Come on new NAM!

  • McCabe58

    Are they still thinking this could start out as freezing rain or a mix? And anyone know when the first precip is supposed to begin? Trying to decide if I should go to work tomorrow… I work nights.. 4-2am. Thinkin I’m gonna have to call in mon and Tuesday

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah you might be better off doing that unless you want to be stranded at work.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    The blog is blowing up today! Figured I’d comment and become part of this weather blog history! :) Here’s to a Foot + of snow!! :)

  • PILOT MISER

    So far NAM is moisture rich

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Wow KCChamps, the HPC is really going crazy with this aren’t they! I saw it last night and we only had a 40% chance of a foot, now its up to 70-80% chance! The most snow I have EVER saw out of one storm is 15-16″. I’d be surprised though if we go over 12″ honestly, the National Weather Service is just not saying it. We’ll see what the models and what not are saying late tonight. Are u going to be up tonight Champs for the new NAM and GFS early in the morning between 2-5am?

  • Skylar

    So far it looks like the axis of heaviest snow is aimed right at KC on this run. It’s also much wetter than the two runs. :)

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=028″

  • pastormillerkc

    Is this a reliable model? It shows the bulls-eye was moved from west, southwest of KC this morning to directly over KC now and putting KC into an estimate of 15″-20″. That would be amazing.

  • kcjc777

    Still having some minor issues with the blog, but this is so much better than last night. Now watching this can cut into my productivity a bit, yay!

  • spaceotter

    check this out. Casualties of snow:

    trade lexmark wireless printer for lite shoveling and cigs – $1 (kansas city north)
    Ok so I am stuck in my house with my car stuck at the end of my drive way and I out of cigarettes. So I will trade someone a very new nice lexmark wireless print copy scanner with a touch screen only about 1 week old and have only made about 5 prints off of it so it ha s full ink cartridgesfor someone to come over help me get my car back in the garage do a little shoveling at the end of my drive and bring me 2 packs of marlboro light 100s. The print new a week ago was $118. So please call 555-555-5555 if you can help

  • f00dl3

    18z NAM almost a perfect track for the KC metro area.

    • mattmaisch

      I’d prefer to see the track a bit further north. The ECMWF and GFS are the preferred solutions to me.

  • d100patel

    Even at 36hours out… http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022418&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=036 …The storm just starts to hit us…I feel like the timing is going to be much later, but moisture is looking really good on these early runs…

  • kellyinkc

    smowmaggedon :)

  • sticks435

    I still don’t understand while Weather Channel thinks it’s going to start tonight and be wintery mix most of the day tomorrow. Nobody else is showing that are they?

  • HeatMiser

    Another major KC News channel meteorologist called the impending storm potentially “historical”.

  • MikeT1

    snow. sucks.

  • Skylar

    18z looks slightly further north and more in line with the GFS. Already 8-12″ for KC at hour 42 :)

  • PILOT MISER

    Plate City just upgraded to WSWARNING

  • f00dl3

    WSWarning for 12+ in KC metro out.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    WSW for KC metro now!

  • stl78

    Wswarning now

  • Skylar

    .A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY
    EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
    SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 6 TO 10 INCHES…WITH
    POSSIBLY 12 INCHES OR MORE THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA
    AND POINTS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE BROAD SWATH OF
    6 TO 10 INCHES… LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT ARE
    POSSIBLE AS WELL.

  • HeatMiser

    New Accuweather snow map has 12-24 zone running from Wichita to Kansas City!

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    School Monday.. But most likely no school Tuesday and Wednesday.

  • f00dl3

    18z NAM backs down again – great track, still showing 8-12″ in metro, but the snow intensity weakens quite a bit as it tracks northeast across eastern Kansas.

  • sticks435

    Jesus, look at Oklahoma. 41 inches!

  • Skylar

    Looks like the NAM is done. It’s slightly wetter and farther north, giving the metro 10-14″ instead of 6-12″ from the last run.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054″

  • Cacti51

    So call my crazy but I have always wondered why with every big storm there is this huge run on snow shovels do people throw these things away or something after then end of the year?? I mean come on, I have had mine for the last 4 years since I bought my house (granted I own a snow blower now) but still has anyone else ever thought this?

    Bring on the snow!!

    • spaceotter

      Probably people like me who live in apartments that didn’t buy one last time we were blasted. Someone shovels our walks and such here, but with snow like this you have to shovel yourself out of the parking lot too.

    • sedsinkc

      A lot of snow shovels are made cheaply today. A lot are made of plastic and can break/crack. So people use their old shovels during a big storm and the shovel gets damaged somehow, so they need to buy a new one before the next storm. This can happen when you try to use a plastic shovel to break up snow packed on a driveway by tires.

  • Freeze Miser

    Seems to be more limbs on the old Miser family tree than I remember.

    WSW….love to hear that!

  • spaceotter

    I wish this all had happened after a payday, it would have been much more enjoyable. I guess the timing keeps me from wasting my money on unnecessary snacks and, um, beverages.

    • Twistersis

      Try making “snow ice cream”…fresh clean :) snow with maple syrup. I know it’s not the same as Krispie Kreme or Pringles but it’s cheap and there will be LOTS out there.

  • Skylar

    If you compare they’re similar, but this run is better for KC

    18z: “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057″

    12z: “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063″

  • HeatMiser

    This could be one to remember. I like how Gary’s blog is title “Huge amounts of snow likely”

  • f00dl3

    @Catci51 – Lots of people are told that Kansas City doesn’t get big snows, ice storms are the main thing we get. Those people obviously don’t know Kansas City weather :)

  • PILOT MISER

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072″

    Interesting how the model intensity changes from OK then to a weaker KC then stronger in IL. This has me thinking the moisture is there and KC could be dumped on.

  • Kcchamps

    latest NAM would suggest 12-15″ for the metro with heavier amounts just South and South-West

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif

  • snowbird

    One channel just posted on FB, 75 miles could make or break this storm, see why it might miss us. NO if its gonna be winter lets shut the city down and everyone stay home!!!!!! I need to go read their thoughts on this

    • TSC

      Dang…wonder what they mean by “missing” us…does that mean only 8″ rather than 16″ or do they mean completely miss us???

      • braysmama

        Reading what they posted they might UP their totals, they don’t think it is going to miss us.

        • snowbird

          I went back and found it, they are also predicting large amounts, is that what they call a TEASER to get you to read it?? LOL This is gonna be interesting.

    • HeatMiser

      And I could grow purple wings and fly in the sparkly moon dust tonight, but it ain’t gonna happen. Models have been consistant for days now.

  • Kcchamps

    latest NAM would suggest 12-15″ for the metro with heavier amounts just South and South-West

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif”

  • weather

    Lt me be the last to say WS Warning for KC

  • HeatMiser

    I think I’ll wait to stock up on food until after work tomorrow. Sounds like tomorrow shouldn’t be too bad at all.

  • HeatMiser

    Okay, I don’t want to hear news stories about people getting stuck and stranded on the highway Monday night. All the channels are now warning of this huge blizzard. Everyone should have heard about it by now. Only the terminally stupid should get caught out in it now.

  • HeatMiser

    LoL..Pilot Miser, Troll Miser? Hmmmm, distant cousins? I don’t quite recall them.

  • Freeze Miser

    “Terminally Stupid”. Hilarious!

    • HeatMiser

      LoL!!!!

      Freezy, we seem to have acquired some new relatives. Family reunion?

      • Troll Miser

        Given the Snownomi that is about to unleash its fury on the metro, we may need to hold off the reunion until Spring. I’ll bring the Hawaiian Rolls!

  • mattmaisch

    Latest NAM per Kuchera.

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_54HR.gif”

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_54HR.gif”

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_51HR.gif”

    3 different types of NAM snow maps

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

    NWS Wxstory is now saying 12″+ for the metro

    • HeatMiser

      This is gonna be intense!

    • TSC

      Nice, now if all our local Mets would get on the same page. At least Gary and the guys have had this the whole time so far.

      • PILOT MISER

        That’s the problem with frumpy, gray hair m and blonde on other stations. They just don’t get it.

      • StormyWX

        That’s one thing I don’t like about having so many different options to choose from. Now me being me, I’ll check out the other guys for a different change of pace or pure curiosity to see what they’re saying, but when when their totals vary by extremes is when I start to get annoyed.

        In other words, I don’t like it when one guy says only 8″ at the most for the city while the other says upwards of 15″ at the most, with 8″ at the least. It creates a mass amount of confusion IMHO.

  • hawkfan74

    how much for the Liberty/ excelsior springs area?

  • HeatMiser

    A lot of them are on the same page now…I’ve been checking around.

    • baumanns

      The blonde isn’t. She has Belton getting 5 inches while another station has cass county “under the gun”. The “calm” station for once is acknowledging the huge potential for this storm.

  • Skylar

    GFS coming in now

  • Skylar

    Something else that favors the snow not going way south

    “There is also a strong clustering in the ensembles and deterministic
    models in taking the surface low just slightly north of the upper
    low track. ” -EAX

    • HeatMiser

      WOO HOO! SNOW! SNOW! SNOW! BLIZZARD! BLIZZARD! BLIZZARD!

      (don’t let Freeze Miser know I said that, he’ll let it get to his head)

  • dragonfly

    Hmmmm 411 comments! We’re almost to the top that the blog got the other day at the height of the storm! I’d say there is some definite excitement! Just hoping for another blog soon! Wondering if Gary is as pumped as everyone else is? Lol…

  • Skylar

    This represents a nearly ideal path for heavy snow from
    southern Kansas, along the Kansas Turnpike and right into the Kansas
    City metro area, and possibly points northeastward. Given the
    strength of the system, which is nearly 5 standard deviations lower
    than the normal upper-level height pattern for this time of year,
    widespread heavy snow is likely with a large swath of at least 6 to
    10 inches. Within that broad swath there will be a narrower strip
    with amounts likely in excess of 10 inches. Also, given the way the
    storm may pivot to our south during the overnight and early Tuesday
    time frame, we may see a period across the Kansas city area of a
    sustained 6 to 9 hours of 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates.

    • HeatMiser

      18 inches!!!! BRING IT!!!!

    • dragonfly

      For a minute there you had me excited! Then you used the S word (south) and that was the end! I want the northeast flow to continue from KC another 100 miles…Walt Disney’s dreams formed here and I’ve got a few immediate ones of my own that include record snow! =)

  • My reload finger is sore. Maybe I can ice it with all this snow!

  • Skylar

    Last one, basically says the large piles from the last storm will making drifting of snow across roads worse than normal

    The snow, when combined with the other aspect of this storm, strong
    northerly to northwesterly winds of up to 30 mph, will make travel
    Tuesday morning across western Missouri and eastern Kansas quite
    dangerous. Whiteout conditions are very possible and roads that were
    cleared may quickly drift over, especially with how high the snow is
    packed from the previous storm. Wind will blow snow over the piled
    snow and deposit it rather quickly on the other side.

    • HeatMiser

      Interesting, I wondered how the dynamic of a thick snow pack would affect the snow blowing around. Also, I heard winds could gust as 40-55 mph.

  • Craig

    Updated NWS PLeasant Hill Forecast Discussion:

    The Critical Part:
    Given the strength of the system, which is nearly 5 standard deviations lower
    than the normal upper-level height pattern for this time of year,
    widespread heavy snow is likely with a large swath of at least 6 to
    10 inches. Within that broad swath there will be a narrower strip
    with amounts likely in excess of 10 inches. Also, given the way the
    storm may pivot to our south during the overnight and early Tuesday
    time frame, we may see a period across the Kansas city area of a
    sustained 6 to 9 hours of 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates.

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    332 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2013

    .DISCUSSION…

    …MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM MONDAY EVENING
    THROUGH TUESDAY…

    Number two of a one-two punch of snowstorms is about to bear down
    upon the region. Water vapor imagery shows a well defined vorticity
    maximum moving through the Four Corners this afternoon. This area
    will MOVE into the Southern Plains late tonight or early Monday
    morning. Models are in very good agreement taking an intense upper-
    level low across Arkansas and through extreme southeastern Missouri.
    There is also a strong clustering in the ensembles and deterministic
    models in taking the surface low just slightly north of the upper
    low track. This represents a nearly ideal path for heavy snow from
    southern Kansas, along the Kansas Turnpike and right into the Kansas
    City metro area, and possibly points northeastward. Given the
    strength of the system, which is nearly 5 standard deviations lower
    than the normal upper-level height pattern for this time of year,
    widespread heavy snow is likely with a large swath of at least 6 to
    10 inches. Within that broad swath there will be a narrower strip
    with amounts likely in excess of 10 inches. Also, given the way the
    storm may pivot to our south during the overnight and early Tuesday
    time frame, we may see a period across the Kansas city area of a
    sustained 6 to 9 hours of 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates. Intense
    frontogenesis, nearly ideal snow growth with maximum omega values
    right around -15C and ample moisture flowing into the system via a
    well defined trowal, all lead to the likelihood of very intense
    snowfall rates and at this time, the timing looks to have a great
    impact on the Tuesday morning commute across the region. We could
    potentially see 6 to 8 inches of snow through the Kansas City metro
    from midnight to 6 am with several more inches added on later in the
    morning.

  • Craig

    Sorry for the double post. Skylar beat me to it. :0

  • Skylar

    18z NAM and GFS are very similar with KC on the northern side of the band of heaviest snow. Looks like an 8-14″ event for us, basically the same as last time, except much windier.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051″

    • Skylar

      Heres the final map:

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057″

      Based on what EAX said, that heaviest band would probably extend slightly farther to the north and west

    • baumanns

      If the models are showing more wind do you think the possibility of being switched over to a Blizzard warning is a possibility?

  • PILOT MISER

    A lot less moisture in GFS , per normal from the NAM, I think the snowfall forecast is right on the money so far.

  • Cacti51

    Check out the latest graphic from NWS Pleasant Hill…

    “https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=463532550368060&set=a.129569323764386.26179.126747474046571&type=1&theater”

  • HeatMiser

    I’m not getting it. At the end it says could see 6 to 8 plus several more added later. That equals 9-11 inches. However, they also said we could see 6-9 hours of 2+/hr snow rates. 9×2=18. So at the it seems they say the potential is for 9-11 inches, while earlier it seems they say the potential is for 18+. Am I misreading something?

  • HeatMiser

    Ah, the famous, cya syndrome – wide range.

  • Skylar

    Here’s a goal, let’s surprise Gary when he gets back from the movies with over 500 comments! :)

  • HeatMiser

    LoL…I wonder what time he’ll come back!

  • f00dl3

    Per the models it’s trended south of the KC metro. I think we can rule out 12″+ totals in the 435-loop.

  • dragonfly

    What does that mean for Macon Marceline area?

  • dragonfly

    Has anyone given thought about the trend and cycling of these storms and what it might mean for the tornado storm season and putting the metro at higher risk? Or is that a dumb ?

  • rkcal

    yep. and it’s way warmer than forecasted. Got to be a factor.

  • Skylar

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=ict”

  • HeatMiser

    There’s gonna be a buttload of snow, that’s for sure!

  • fire508

    “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif

  • Kcchamps

    both the NAM and GFS have almost the perfect track for us to see A LOT of snow (looking at the track of the 500mb VortMax) so I wouldn’t worry too much at this point

  • DaleGribble

    I was just on the Ham Radio with some like-minded folks, real meat-eaters, not the type of croc-wearing sissy men you see hanging out at coffee shops. I’m not allowed to tell you too much about these people; let me just say that some of them are “company men.” Anyway, unlike you many of you here intentionally kept in the dark, my associates have access to the supercomputer at Exeter, Devon which predicted Hurricane Sandy before all the jimmy-rigged, half-ass “computers” many forecasters use even knew what was coming. At this point in time, I’m not allowed to give you too much information. I promised to keep my mouth shut. But let me just say this is going to be a doozy. My current D21 fractal readings show 24 – 42 inches of snow over the greater KC area, which may be why FEMA was just notified about possible impending problems. No reason to get too alarmed, but I’d make sure you’re stocked up on essentials, as none of us knows for certain what Mother Nature will bring. As for me, this might be one of my last comments here for a while, as I’m heading to my secret-location bunker, which only has Ham radio access. But don’t be worried, it’s stockpiled with food, ammo, (choice) magazines, and surveillance equipment. Good luck!

  • FF814

    Where were these 2 storms 53 days ago? Asking for Jerry #LRC

    • nbell31b

      I believe they were there, but waited until they passed us by before intesifying, or went too far south. I don’t remember.

  • weather

    *POOF*
    Please General dry slot stay away from this storm. Thanks in advance.

  • whitelightning

    Gary must be sleeping? he will need to be well rested for tomorrow.

  • tishey99

    I have been following this blog for awhile now but never posted anything. What do you all think it looks like for Harrisonville? We usually get pounded by everything. Is this time looking the same?
    Haven’t figured out all the maps yet.

  • McCabe58

    Yeah, the warmer temps today aren’t going to do anything about the storm tomorrow. LOTS of snow coming folks, hang on tight! Could have a blizzard on our hands!

    • Skylar

      ^^Down south in Oklahoma it’s in the 60′s where there are blizzard and winter storm warnings in effect right now. Definitely not going to be a problem up here.

  • dragonfly

    I’m glad that I stopped being a silent stalker and joined in on the fun! I live where no one likes snow and gets upset when I do my snow dance so I’ve kept it to myself this year silently hoping and waiting! It almost felt like a Wyoming blizzard the other day! It’s looking even more promising for M-T tomorrow will be a mad house at work, but it’ll be worth it if I get lots of snow tomorrow night! I promise to be happy with this winter season if this storm pans out! And start hoping for spring and the stormy season it’ll bring!

    • kellyinkc

      Yeah, I know that area. Too bad about the Pear Tree restaurant.
      Dance a way, we are going to get hammered!

  • networkguy

    So with the current models, how much is the Liberty area looking at?

  • sticks435

    Weather Channel has us getting 12-18 now.

  • McCabe58

    Tishey I’m in pleasant hill, looks like both of us are in line for some pretty good snow. Possibly over a foot with strong winds. Going to have 2-3 foot drifts I’m sure

  • tishey99

    It has been fun reading all the posts. This is my new favorite place to be with storms coming! I love snow when I don’t have to commute to downtown KC from Harrisonville in it!

  • kstatewildcats44

    NWS forecast in Topeka has backed all the way down to 1-2 inches Monday and 3-7 Monday night. Meanwhile in the forecast discussion it says a foot. What gives?? Anyone? Just a conservative author perhaps?

    • LibertyJeff

      If you add the numbers together you get up to 9″ through Monday Night. More snow it to fall Tuesday that will add to this as well. A foot is very likely!

      • Craig

        And this is from the same Topeka NWS AFD:
        ATTM…I WILL GO WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW NORTHWEST
        OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO CLAY CENTER TO HIAWATHA LINE. 6 TO 8 INCHES
        ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO TOPEKA TO HIAWATHA LINE.
        THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN EMPORIA TO
        LAWRENCE TO KANSAS CITY LINE WHERE 8 TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL.
        I DID NOT CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES. I DID ADD BROWN
        COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING…AND ONLY PLACED AND WINTER
        WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR NEMAHA…MARSHALL, WASHINGTON, REPUBLIC AND
        CLOUD COUNTIES.

  • weather

    Folks this is going to be a dangerous storm. If people get stuck on the highways or roads they deserve to be stuck plenty of warning. We could see 18 inches of snow. Imagine that. Double of what some just received.

  • kiminpv

    So, here is the question…After the mess we saw last week and the probability that this storm will be as strong or stronger…Do you see any local officials formally shutting down the city? During the East Coast storm a month ago didn’t they ban all automobiles from the roads?

  • tishey99

    Look forward to it! I should be able to get home Monday before the big stuff hits and then I will take a snow day on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday! Since I am “nonessential” they pay us to stay home in very severe winter weather!

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    Maybe Gary is is waiting to see the blog actually hit 500 comments before posting a new one. Everyone switches to the next blog when it comes up. It would be a shame to leave this one when it is all so close now!

  • Micah

    A graphic of the NWS snowfall predictions, for those asking about Harrisonville, Liberty, etc:
    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • tishey99

    I think they should close the roads. People obviously don’t have the brains not to drive in it. That was made perfectly clear last week. A guy at QT didn’t even know another storm was coming!

    • baumanns

      So true. I will never understand why people want to get out in blizzard conditions.

    • spaceotter

      When I lived in the Buffalo area they did that. They’d call a snow emergency and if you were caught out on the streets your car would get impounded and you’d be fined or jailed.

    • 160.5WB

      There needs to be “stronger statements” earlier. If businesses are open, people need to work. There were hundreds of cars and trucks in the ditch on Thursday. So many of these cars should not have been on the road.

      • spaceotter

        I agree, that was the main reason for the snow emergencies, to keep businesses closed so the work traffic didn’t happen. Many people have to show when their company is open or they don’t get paid.

  • NWS for KC is now saying 7-11″ for Monday night and then 2-4″ for Tue morning. So 9-15″ is there forecast for KC itself.

  • weather

    Hey Gary WAKE UP. We are 24 hours out and some of the bloggers don’t know what to do without their fealess leader. Hope the snowvest is back from the cleaners LOL>

  • tishey99

    Gary posted on his other site. New map shows 12-24 inches.

  • DaleGribble

    What the heck? I just made the most informative comment on this entire post and it’s held up in moderation? Come on, people, get with it!

  • Kcchamps

    WOW Gary updated the other blog andis forecasting 12-20″!

    “http://www.weather2020.com/blog/”

  • Craig

    I think it’s funny that, because of the excitement of yesterday, we’re all depressed because the NAM and GFS are ONLY at 9-15″ and the NWS is ONLY at 12″+. Pretty funny. Any other time and we’d be doing cartwheels.

  • HeatMiser

    Eveyone is raising the total snow on their maps. Accuweather now has us in a 12-24 inch band, TWC has us in a 12-18 inch band, and now Gary has us in a 12-24 inch band.

  • balzak

    And not ONE Snow Blower left in the Kansas City Area!!!

  • kettle corn

    This is going to be awesome!

  • Joseph Tay

    Quite a few alarmist on here or at least very excitable people…kind of odd.

  • sticks435

    I’m sure glad I have a car port for snow/hail storms. To bad it’s only covered from the top, snow still drifts up around the sides of my car, but better then it all being piled all over it lol.

  • HeatMiser

    The Heat Miser now expects and demands 2 feet of snow! Hear that Freeze Miser? Kick it into gear!

  • Perky

    Don’t really have anything brilliant to say ( unlike MOST of the posts), but this is my contribution towards getting to 500 comments!!!

  • HeatMiser

    Mabye this’ll put us over 500?!!!!?

  • HeatMiser

    one more

  • Mammatus

    Looks like KCMO is prepared to issue a “State of Emergency” tomorrow morning if the forecast is still on track by then. Looks as though it will be a historic storm. Looks like winter storm “Rocky” is going deliver the knock out blow.

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    Loving the new record!!

  • happyrock

    So, is it still going to start after 4pm?

  • redavis

    NAM showing a bulleye’s area in central MO including Columbia of 12″ plus snowfall. Woo hoo, bring it.

    http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif

  • Jerome36

    Long-time reader…3rd time poster. I enjoy the reading all the details and commentary and cannot wait for Rocky Horror Snow Storm! Keep up the good work Gary and Team and a quick shout out to the other EB reading the blog!

  • dragonfly

    Wishing I lived in KC!!!!

    • kellyinkc

      drive down now and spend a few days to experience the snow.
      Plenty is about to fall

      • dragonfly

        If only! I have to work tomorrow and put an order in for my produce dept that probably won’t get delivered until Wed. Good thing I ordered extra on my last one. For living in such a small community the threat of a good storm brings everyone to the local grocery store…I’m sure I’ll have record sales tomorrow even after huge sales last week!

        • kellyinkc

          I am familiar with that area. Too bad about the Pear Tree Restaurant. I was just at a store it was a zoo. LOL. Brought back memories of my grocery days.

    • spaceotter

      You live in a small town. I curse the traffic daily here and wish I lived in a small town. lol

      • dragonfly

        It took some getting use to after living in Salt Lake for 11 years everyone waves and smiles! And going is slow lol… There are a lot of old timers and the funny thing is they will be the ones out joy riding Tues to see who alls out and about! It is a great little town with lots of community pride and everyone is helpful and watches out for each other :) I haven’t been honked at nor received the bird since I moved here!!!

  • f00dl3

    Gary would be proud: “http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22kshb+weather+blog%22&cmpt=q”

  • AnonymousVJ

    Hey guys! It’s been forever since I’ve posted!

    My concern (along with many others on here, apparently) is the temperatures.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130224&RT=15&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=SZL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.19368540410107&mLON=-94.4993177734375&mTYP=roadmap

    It’s going to be barely below freezing, if below freezing at all during the heart of the accumulating snow ( 00z to 18z ).

    The models have been consistent in regards to having the precipitation as snow, but the temperature does worry me living in the south part of the viewing area.

    At least if it’s a wet snow, though, drifting should decrease.

  • stjoeattorney

    well back to 12-15 any other time a great total but when 30 miles away 15+ make one sad!!! \;+(

  • StormyWX

    ooook wow. Over 515 comments! Congrats everybody.

    But a new blog would be nice…especially since your news is being severely delayed due to the stupid golf coverage.

  • Skylar

    Gary are you going to be posting most of your new entries on the weather2020 site, or is this just until the traffic stops overwhelming the servers?

  • BILLWatkU

    I live in Lawrence… I measured 9.3″ last storm. Could we really exceed that this time? Also, when do the next models come out? Which do you regulars perfer (NAM, GFS, etc). Thanks!

    • Skylar

      There’s a decent chance of it. :) The NAM is out at 8:30 and the GFS is at 9:30, both are fairly similar in their accuracy.

  • spaceotter

    why is my last comment awaiting moderation? No links, no foul language..Did I make someone mad? lol

    • Bill Smith

      Since that was your first post, it and all subsequent post had to be approved. Now they’ll go straight up

  • Allollie

    I think Gary is waiting to see if this thing crashes or the evening forecast is over : )

  • dragonfly

    Gary we miss you come back, come back! We are hungry for new info! Your fans need some attention and after all since you are the most accurate we want to hear your opinion of what us going to transpire! It’s like the difference between let’s say CNN and Fox lol….. Ok maybe not that bad but your opinion is obviously held in high regards here! So please come back!!!!!

  • Kcchamps

    channel 7 minus 3 was jut on and has 8-12″ for all the metro with 12-16″ inside of that, spliting Jackson Co. in half

  • tishey99

    They gave the weather report on 41 and they just said 16-20″ a little south (Harrisonville) and 8-15″ rest of metro. All the other channels pretty much reporting the same except one and they don’t think we are getting hardly anything!

  • mattmaisch

    New Blog.

  • KSRedWing

    First of all, feels great to be back on the 41 weather blog. Haven’t been here for a while. Secondly, as I sit here on a bit of a somber day for me personally, I ponder what Mother Nature has in store for us. 20 years ago today, I lost my mother to cancer. The day after she died, Feb. 25, 1993, we got blasted with a snowstorm. I remember the logistical nightmare of getting family in town for the funeral with several inches of snow on the ground. Last weekend I visited her gravesite, and asked many questions. Most of all, I asked for a sign that she was looking over me and my family. As the last year or so has been a very tumultuous time for me personally. She absolutely loved the snow, being from Pennsylvania. Well, 20 years to the day, we are gonna be in the bullseye for a monster storm. Not sure if this is the sign I was looking for, but I will take it. She wasn’t ready to say goodbye 20 years ago, maybe this is her way of saying she’s still here…… Bring it on, I will gladly shovel after is storm.

    • dragonfly

      Back in 2003 I was sitting in our formal living room late one night watching it snow through our picture windows! It was really coming down hard! I love watching it snow! It had been a rough day for me because it was around Christmas and we had lost our oldest daughter who was 13 in a very tragic accident in Aug. needless to say I was thinking and pondering that since I couldn’t sleep and the snow cheered me up. It was during that time that I experienced Thundersnow and lightening for the first time ever! I thought my mind was playing tricks on me seriously I’d never heard of thunder and lightening during a snowstorm! For me as goofy as it seems was a gift on a heavy grieving heart and a tear streaked face, an experience I hold close and won’t ever forget. There were many a thunderstorm she and I had laid there on the floor looking up into the heavens watching the lightening and counting in between thunder. :) sending some hugs of comfort your way. If you get a chance google The Waterbug Story it is a sweet little story that’ll bring a smile to your face.