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How Much Rain Today & A Look Ahead

Good morning bloggers,

Rain and thunderstorms were heading our way as I am posting this early this morning.

4

 

Take a look at the radar at 6:30 AM:

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We are finally about to experience a wide-spread rain event today. There is an upper level storm and a surface cold front approaching. The rain will continue off and on until this storm passes which will be much later today and this will allow a few spots to receive an inch of rain or more today.

Looking ahead to the weekend storm system, as usual we like to hold off on jumping to so many conclusions until we get within around this range, three days away. The trend on the models fits the LRC well and blows the dry line through Kansas Sunday into western Missouri by Sunday evening. There is a rather significant severe weather risk and the timing of the surface features is critical for our risk in Kansas City.  We will look deeper into this after the new data comes in today.

Have a great day, and let’s enjoy this rain event!

Gary

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98 comments to How Much Rain Today & A Look Ahead

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser reporting live from Merriam Ks. with a loud thunderclap and a brief shower and Radar lighting up to my west!! This could be our Drought Buster folks!!! Lets keep are fingers crossed!!

  • Weatherfreak01

    Woke up at 5:15. Saw a flash of lightning. Got up and let the dogs (who are afraid of tstorms) out before the “big show” gets here in an hour or so.

  • Weatherfreak01

    Timing wise, how is Sunday’s storm going to effect the Trolley Run?

  • luvsno

    It appears to be bypassing Olathe !? Same old story. Will we be getting ANY of it ?

  • chris

    That was some pretty intense lightening that just passed through here south of lawrence

  • Farmgirl

    Not getting much rain La Cygne.

    Anybody else have gusty winds around 3:30AM this morning? Winds were intense gust burst. I decided to go out and bring the horses in and then by 4:15 they subsided. Wondering if a thunderstorm to out south collapsed and caused this strange wind pattern.

  • Farmgirl

    Gary, wishing you a very happy birthday.

  • AW

    Heavier rain about to enter Leavenworth if radar is correct.
    Notice how models have ours as Sunday early morning rain. That’s always better than Sunday late afternoon rain. And, usually, results in less Severe Weather… not to say that it can’t happen.

  • f00dl3

    NAM and GFS have been consistant never destabilizing Kansas City on Sunday. Latest NAM radar sim shows thunder forming southwest of Kansas City late in the evening Saturday, reaching the metro Sunday – and from that point we have 4 or 5 rounds of thunderstorms by 3 PM Sunday. That leads me to believe with clouds and rain cooled air it’s going to be hard to get anything too major here.

  • frigate

    With Sunday being 3 days out…I think until its much closer, will we really know what going to happen. There will be all kinds of guessing and speculation and different model runs between now and then, so at this point I’m going to wait and see how it all comes or doesn’t come together as far as the severe forcasting, just hoping for more heavier rains. Not overly impressed with today’s storm system, though more widespread in coverage, doesn’t appear to be anykind of a gully washer in making up much on the deficits but hey, we’ll take what we can get.

  • f00dl3

    “http://twitter.com/KaleeDionne/status/459305290954190848/photo/1″

    Why did you choose that color scheme. Makes it look a heck of a lot worse than it actually is. Hype?

    “http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=eax”

    • Drought Miser

      I saw that this morning the deep reds on her Facebook page it made me double check my other Radar scans I’m ready for hype!!!

  • terrydsnowy

    I think Sunday will be a severe out break for metro area.

  • Jeff

    Didn’t the LRC predict above average rainfall this spring, or at least average rainfall? HUH?!?!

    • Chuck

      Ummm Jeff….Spring isn’t over yet. If we get to the end of spring your comment might make sense. That’s like going to a Miami Heat game cause your a LeBron fan at the end of the first quarter he has 2 points and you’re disappointed. Then he ends up with 32 at the end of the game. We are 1/3 in to spring right now.

      • Jeff

        First of all, *you’re*.

        Second, we are 35 days into spring. There is a 57 day cycle. The next 22 days had better get after it, or we are going to be back in the dry cycle?!?!

        • chris

          Well with today’s rain we are almost back to normal

        • Chuck

          Well Jeff I do know the use of your’re and your. I was typing fast and not paying attention. I’m an educated person. So so sorry you have to criique the english first instead of the subject first, which means you must have taken it personally. Geez. I’ll be on the lookout for your (not you’re) grammar typos and point them out to you. ?!?! is improper grammar use by the way.

          I’m guessing we wind up wetter than normal this spring.

          • Pete Capone

            Obviously, Chuck, you took it personally, based on your (not you’re and not your’re) reply to the critique (not criique).

            The exact prediction was “No chance of a drought this Spring”. He later “modified” that, but never on the air, only in the blog. As far as the viewing public, the Spring prediction was no chance of a drought.

            • Jeff

              No chance of a drought this spring is like saying there is no chance Billy Butler doesn’t hit a homerun this season. Isn’t exactly stepping out on a ledge.

              I thought he said the drought was going to end, meaning we would have to have above average rainfall to get out our current state.

            • Chuck

              Who asked for your input Pete. Was between us two. Critique this….you are a jerk

            • Chuck

              Pete, here’s another thing with you anti-Gary people. First let me say that I am not anit Gary or Pro Gary. I was merely responding to the post the Jeff wrote. If you don’t get so uptight about people posting something you can’t stand, then maybe you could unblind yourself and see that my post was simply to Jeff stating that Spring isn’t over yet. My comment had nothing to do with the LRC or belief in it or lack thereof. I was simply saying that making a comment like that is foolish, at this point, when we aren’t even halfway through the spring yet. If you are going to bring back comments about the next month and a half of the LRC cycle being dry, based on the previous cycles, then don’t EVER critique (is that the right spelling Petey?) the LRC, because you bash it ALL the time, but now you are using it as a defense to something that didn’t even involve you. Talking out of both sides of ones mouth is so easy to see when you go back to some of your historical posts. It’s hilarious.

          • Jeff

            I have never criiqued anyone. I am simply here to help.

            My observation was that if we spend 70 days of spring in a dry cycle, we aren’t going have above average precipitation. If you believe in the LRC, then you believe the past 35 days of only 1.25″ of rain will cycle back to end our spring.

            • mowermike

              Jeff,

              That’s for KCI, yes, they have missed out on the heavier rains. But, other parts of the city are now above average for the month.(average is around 3.7 inches)Parts of Johnson and Jackson counties are around 3.5-4 inches now. Some of my reporting stations are above 4 inches now with this weekend and early next week’s storm to go.

  • yewtrees

    Earth had 4th-warmest March on record:

    “http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2669″

  • f00dl3

    Yewtrees – Just do a Google search for (Year) warmest on record and you’ll find that’s like every year. :)

    • AW

      The year 2013 ties with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880. The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F).

      • f00dl3

        State of the climate year ranks per NCDC:

        2013: 4th warmest
        2012: NOAA: 2012 was warmest year ever for US, second most ‘extreme’
        2011: 9th warmest
        2010: Per NPR ” In fact, 2010 ties the record with 2005 as the hottest year in the historical record.”
        2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade (NOAA)
        2008: Global Temperature Ties as Eighth Warmest on Record
        2007: Tied as Earth’s Second-Warmest Year
        2006: NOAA REPORTS 2006 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR U.S. General Warming Trend, El Niño Contribute to Milder Winter Temps
        2005: The year 2005 was the warmest year in over a century, according to NASA scientists studying temperature data from around the world.
        2004: Fourth-Warmest Year Ever Recorded
        2003: U.N.: 2003 third hottest year on record
        2002: ‘warmest for 1,000 years’ By Charles Clover, Environment Editor12:00AM BST 26 Apr 2002
        2001: the Second Warmest Year on Record GENEVA, Switzerland, (The Heat is Online – unsure of factuality)

        • Drought Miser

          An iceberg the size of Manhattan broke of of Antarctica and is heading north thankfully not near any shipping channels!!! This stuff is nutz folk’s just unreal!!

  • gwh64063

    I’m loving this rain. Got the flower gardens fertilized yesterday afternoon at home just in case we got a nice soaker like this today. It’s nice to finally see us in some rainy activity this week.

  • AW

    Lots of heavy rain just entered Leavenworth. I hate to complain, but my potatoes are going to rot. Gonna go take them inside.

  • AW

    Accuweather is showing a late Saturday early Sunday scenario. I think this would limit Severe weather.

  • AW

    Models (GFS + NAM) show T-storms on Sunday EXPLODE just east of KC.

  • Hume-Dude

    Well I will certainly take this nice little rain , I was thinking we might get more but I will take it. Does anybody have some preliminary rainfall totals now that is about over? I think most folks got around 1/4″ – 1/2″ , hoping somebody got did better out there. The storm center is still rotating out to the west so we can still possibly pick up on some more rain if we get lucky.

  • terrydsnowy

    I think it’s a wait and see scenario for Sunday but I do think we’re going to have severe weather in KC. we all know the models can be off on this stuff too the timing on when its coming in!

    • Drought Miser

      I’m with you Terry we all have to monitor the forecast the next several days and I’m sure Gary and team will keep us updated!!

  • Hume-Dude

    FOODl3 is right, every model will contradict itself over the next 48 hours. We all know these models are not gospel so to speak, we do know we will be very close to this potential event so lets just keep our pants on and see how the trends go. Hopefully this little system helped “break the seal” regarding rainfall and the sky can go ahead and open up now like it did in North Central KS / Nebraska last night. The estimated rainfalls up there would sure look nice here for a change!

  • Drought Miser

    Happy Birthday Gary!!!!….nice morning thunderstorms for your day!!!

  • luvsno

    Why, oh why, is everyone chomping at the bit for severe weather ??? Like hoping for blizzards in winter.
    Can’t you all just be satisfied with rainy days ? smh

    • I love rainy days that are not severe. The set-up for Sunday is related to other situations earlier in the spring season. The dry line will be surging out, and the risk of severe weather may be rather significant on Sunday. The dry line may reach KC by later in the afternoon. We will analyze a bit more in tomorrow’s blog, and tonight on 41 Action News.

      Gary

  • Deb

    Happy Birthday and April Showers, Gary!
    It has been raining all morning here in north Raymore, nice thunder showers with some heavier downpours. Has not stopped yet here, and radar looks encouraging for more to come later? Hope so. Love these types of rains where it has a chance to soak in before the next heavy band comes through.
    Will check rain gauge later.
    Deb

  • mgsports

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0392.html
    SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
    A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

  • thomasmidwest

    Dime size hail here in North Kansas City nice little cell

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser reporting live from Shawnee Ks I can report possible hail damage hailed briefly but enough to cover the grass and almost stop up drain water drains…

  • Deb

    Checked the rain gauge and have 1″ in north Raymore, as of 11:00am. And I missed a little bit of the rain first thing as the thunder woke me up and I ran out the gauge!
    Nice way to wake up IMO. :-)

  • f00dl3

    “http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/US/namUS_con_mlcape_081.gif”

    “http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/US/namUS_con_3kmhel_075.gif”

    Not going to give my opinions, but going to post maps to the NAM for bloggers to decide themselves.

    12z NAM is quite limited with instability Sunday afternoon. ~1000 j/kg CAPE values. Helicity looks modest but not off the charts.

    Best support for violent stuff looks over the LATX area.

  • f00dl3

    The storms to our west are starting to take on a cellular mode. Things may get active around here?

    • f00dl3

      or were – briefly :)

      • These will be the strongest thunderstorms of the day. Let’s take it in and enjoy them, they have not been severe today. But, the ones this weekend likely will be. I will going deeper into this weekend in tomorrow morning’s blog and on 41 Action News today beginning at 4 PM.

        • Drought Miser

          I can report and I’m sure other Shawnee residents near Mastin and SMPKY marginally Severe hail about an hour ago stripped some young tree’s new buds and leafs

  • f00dl3

    Looks like a strong hail core near I-35 @ I-435 right now in Lenexa per VIL.

    “http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=EAX-DVL-1-24″

    Guessing hail size up to 1.5″ possible in that white blob for a bit.

  • f00dl3

    Definate hail accumulating on the side of the road per scout cameras too.

    “http://www.kcscout.net/mapsubsystem/snapshots/K035SBIPC-77.jpg?rand=0.4329803960863501″

  • f00dl3

    STS Warn JoCo KS / WyCo KS / Jackson MO for that cell.

    1227 pm quarter size hail reported Olathe.

  • Chuck

    I’m sure this is similar for a lot of folks….torrential rain and small hail, maybe not even quite pea size. 143rd St between Quivira and Switzer is where I am at. The really torrential looks like it’s lasting 5 minutes or so, and then heavy rain for a while after that. Hail lasted maybe a minute and a half.

  • Chuck

    Severe T-Storm warning issued

  • BigSteve

    Lovely waves of drenching rain in Midtown KC, timed perfectly so that I can watch it roll in from my office window without having to worry about driving in it.

  • blue8091

    WooHoo! Love this rain! It’s been raining here all morning and in the last 10 minutes – we are getting small hail (119th/Antioch) and it is raining BUCKETS!!! Heard the weather alert come across! Yippee!! Just put down 37 rolls of sod and seeded troubled areas on my lawn last week!! With what is forecasted for this weekend, I can slide on watering for some days! I just love rainy days!

  • Kole Christian

    In the general sense with how old the earth is, a set of in accurate data only going back about 100-150 is not enough to tell whether or not the earth is truly warming. Earth layers tell us this is just a natural cycle. I’m not to concerned about it. As to why storms are causing more damage? Open your eyes and realize there has been a ton of urbanization over the last 50-60 years. Should be no surprise that more buildings are likely to be hit.

    • overlandpark4me

      And GW stopped 17 years ago, combine that with the same sheep who called for an ice age in the late 70’s. I’ll let you know when I stop laughing.

      • Morham

        Well just to be clear, we are *still* in an ice age. “http://geology.utah.gov/surveynotes/gladasked/gladice_ages.htm”

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    Beautiful soaking rain here in St. Joe.

  • Hillsdale_Bruce

    What is this all this strange wet stuff falling from the sky? Yay!!!

  • chris

    Gonna go out on a limb and say we will get wide spread 2-3 inch rain fall with the storms this weekend with localized higher amounts possible

    • batman

      I hope it’s a nice thick oak limb because you are going to need it.

      • chris

        We shall see troll boy…so do you ever have a good comment without trolling somebody? Or are you just bored a lot because no one will talk to you. What is your prediction?

  • batman

    Good job on the forecast Gary! I have almost an inch in the most accurate rain gauge. I don’t think Sunday will be bad for us as of now. Let’s wait until Saturday to see how it sets up. It’s a complicated,unique, and complex set up so let’s see how the new data trends.

    • Dobber

      Cheer up batboy ….. Where’s robin? This will be a drought busting week ahead of us. Normal moisture conditions in place by June. Can’t live in the past…..

  • yewtrees

    There may be a major tornado outbreak this weekend:

    “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/”

    “http://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-already-predicting-massive-tornado-outbreak-weekend-151627265.html”

  • overlandpark4me

    Grrrreat, just got marbled pretty good in Merriam. Kid is going to be really bummed if his new car is dinged up?

  • j-ox

    1.9″ in NW Lawrence…WHOOT! AND, another wave may arrive shortly. This goes a long ways to approaching avg for the year.

  • AW

    Heavy rain just started here in Leavenworth. No hail, though.

  • AW

    60 percent chance of watch being put up in eastern Kansas western Missouri

  • Drought Miser

    Major Flash Flooding in Merriam Ks!!

  • Hume-Dude

    NO SEVERE? I just encountered a whopper of a cell near Shawnee Mission medical Center. Definitely severe but on lower end of the spectrum. AT least quarter sized hail, and at least 60 MPH winds. Torrential rainfall, (probably 3/4″ in 15 minutes) and some flash flooding was definitely going on with all the pavement in that area. Most intense cell of the year, I hope many more are to come. We sure did need this widespread event, even my farm down south is getting in on this!

    • chris

      By the radar it looks like the line is bowing out and wind speed is increasing quite a bit

      • Hume-Dude

        I literally saw the wind blowing the runoff BACK up a small hill for a brief couple minutes during the peak of the cell. I have only seen that in hurricane footage! I also got my umbrella blown inside out while walking in , and saw three other people fighting their blown out umbrellas when I was leaving. Pretty funny….

  • Pete Capone

    Overland Park Arboretum: 1.34 inches since midnight.

  • terrydsnowy

    Are we still in a red light on Sunday? It’s probley going to be a wild Sunday in the weather!

  • mowermike

    Parts of town are now above average for the month of April. Great news! I’ll post all of my rather full rain gauges in the morning. Get use to these rainfalls, there will be plenty more. Some early readings, over 2 inches….

    This is the second round of flood advisories for Johnson and Jackson counties this month. Another pond filling rain. If we can do 1-2 inches of rain Sunday through Tuesday, we may very well come out of the abnormally dry headline that we’re currently in for the metro. (not a drought headline btw)

  • blueflash

    Once again, radar shows that KCI got the short end of the stick on today’s rainfall, while most of the metro enjoyed 1 to 1 1/2 inch rains. So the record book will show that the drought continues…..

  • blueflash

    Greenest drought I’ve ever seen!

  • Hume-Dude

    Nice rain but not a pond filler by any stretch , it was way too dry to start with. If it had been wet before and most of this ran off it would be different story. Not talking about urban areas that saw flash flooding either because that is a function of the concrete/asphalt surfaces in the city and fast rainfall rates, not because of a huge rain. Good rain though and looking forward to MowerMike’s rainfall post later on, good to see his prediction of good rainfall have come to fruition we just need a couple more now. I will gladly feast on my crow, it tastes delicious soggy!

  • f00dl3

    This rainfall today and the rain expected this weekend will put a dent in this “mini-drought” or “dry spell” or whatever you want to call it. That’s a good sign! Hopefully now that it knows how to rain it will keep raining for a while before the anticyclone sets in!

  • f00dl3

    18z NAM really looks confusing. Has the whole area south of the Iowa border in the warm sector, dry line west of the area, but it looks to indicate the best helicity values moving through around 6 AM Sunday. By the typical “optimal” afternoon severe weather timeframe, we are still in the warm sector, dryline still to our west, starting to fire up – but sigtor values only 1.0 to 1.5 here. The highest sigtor values well south of the area (again, over the LATX region) where they are 5-8.

    “http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-NAM-US-sfc-radar-0-0#”