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How High Will It Go This Week?

Good morning bloggers,

The temperatures will be moving up this week. There is still a lot of debate on how high the temperatures will go. We had enough rain this spring into early summer to keep everything lush and green with the corn belt doing quite well on moisture. We would love to hear from a few of the farmers out there on how the corn and soy beans are doing. I know that corn is the earlier crop and pollination is due in these next few days to two weeks. Let us know what you need from Mother Nature.  We would appreciate the insight.

Even though it has dried out a bit in the past week, the pattern is still likely going to produce some good chances of rain across most of the corn belt this month. It will highly depend on the development and placement of the anticyclone or upper level ridge. Where will this set up in the next three weeks? This is critical for hot hot it may get and for how wet or dry it will be. I made a video this morning and I am posting it below in just a second.

Dry To Start Each Month In KC:

  • January 1st half:  0.65″      2nd half:  0.74″
  • February 1st half:  0.00″   2nd half:  0.06″
  • March 1st half:  0.42″        2nd half:  2.39″
  • April 1st half: 3.74″            2nd half:  2.90″
  • May 1st half:  0.89″            2nd half:  4.48″
  • June 1st half:  0.46″           2nd half:  5.97″
  • July 1st half:  0.27″             2nd half: ?
  • Total 1st half:  6.43″          2nd half:  13.64″

The first half of each month, with only one exception so far, has been much drier than the second half of each month. This is likely directly related to the fact that the patten is cycling in the 56-61 day range. A harmonic of that cycling pattern would be nearly on the scale of a month. And, another harmonic would be close to a half month. What is a harmonic fluctuation?  This was in my presentation that I made two weeks ago today.  In Astronomy, cycles are perfect. At the equator we have a 24 hour day and an equal 12 hour day and 12 hour night. So, a harmonic of one day would be a half day. You can go further and see the 1/4 harmonic at being from 6 AM to Noon and so on, or every six hours. These harmonics or mini cycles also exist within the cycling pattern that we are experiencing.

Here we are once again having a dry first half of July. We are now ten days in with no significant rain in sight at the moment and KCI Airport has only had 0.27″. KCI averages 4.45″ during July and last year 8.76″ fell during this month.  Last year, almost all of that rain fell during the first half of July, a very, very different weather pattern.  We do see some chances for rain by the very end of this week.

Here is the video:

July 10th weather discussion from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

In the video I show one of the updated versions of July’s forecast based on the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis model.  We will discuss this further later in the week.

It was 25 years ago yesterday that I flew to Kansas City from Oklahoma for a job interview, and 25 years ago today I was offered the job. I only knew one person in KC at the time when I arrived, the person who helped me get in the door.  Look at what can happen in 25 years. It’s hard to believe.  Here is my Facebook link: https://www.facebook.com/GaryLezak

Go and read the entry and comment if you would like to.  25 years ago it was a very exciting year weather wise.  That next winter had major snow storms, and then we had the “Flood of ’93” that next summer.  It was definitely one of the most exciting weather years of my life. How about you?

I am on my way to Boston this morning for some rather intense training on our computer systems at KSHB-TV.  The training is being done at IBM, The Weather Company, in Littleton, MA.  I hopefully will be learning some new tricks and tips to bring to my team here in KC. Have a great day. I will be checking in and either Jeff Penner or I will keep you updated in the blogs.  We are continuing our discussion on the weather here and at Weather2020.com. Click on that blog as well to join in with your comments as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

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