It’s been another warm afternoon across the area. Throw in that humidity and it has felt even hotter. We’re actually not that far off from average, but it’s been a summer with below-average temperatures, so we’re not acclimated to it just yet. By the time we get there, it will be winter!
There’s a larger area of high pressure near the desert Southwest, which pushes the storm track up a bit more. Smaller storm systems ride along the storm track and drop into our area. They tend to drop in an leave pretty quickly and in this pattern seem to occur overnight into the early morning hours.
The above is my hand-made made. This below is the 500mb chart (enhanced with a yellow line) showing the flow.
This flow is what brought us the rain Sunday morning, the showers this morning, and likely another round of showers Tuesday morning. The models tend to struggle with this (to an extent) until about 12-18 hours beforehand.
At 7am Tuesday, this is what the NAM is depicting:
The latest HRRR *just* came out for 7am tomorrow and this is what it shows:
I like the HRRR’s depiction the best. I have a feeling we may see a little more coverage across parts of NW Missouri and Northern Missouri than the NAM & RPM are showing. I don’t think we’ll have too many complaints about that though, since the moisture is welcome. But just like today, the showers should move out and the heat will return for the afternoon, with the exception being for those near the Iowa/Missouri line, as lingering clouds and the showers may help keep the temps in check.
If you’ve paid attention to the pattern, you know the heat won’t last much longer. We’ve seen this happen a few times this summer: it gets warm/hot for a few days and then we break the heat. That same thing should happen later on this week as the rain & clouds invade Wednesday night into Thursday. This continues to be the “sweet spot” for good rain across the area.
We will continue to track all of this for you and provide updates on air, online, and here on the blog.
There were also NO tornadoes in Missouri, Oklahoma, or Arkansas.
Indeed, this has been an overall quiet severe weather season. I, for one, am happy about that and will not complain one bit.