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History Of Major Hurricane Harvey

Good morning bloggers,

A cluster of thunderstorms began organizing around August 13th and this system got the notice of the National Hurricane Center.  The NHC started issuing statements and advisories and then Tropical Storm Harvey was named on August 17th as it approached the Lesser Antilles islands. It then weakened and lost a lot of its circulation before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. Conditions became favorable for hurricane formation as it entered the Gulf of Mexico. Harvey then became a Major Hurricane as he approached the Texas coastline near Rockport, TX.

170826131751-35-hurricane-harvey-exlarge-169“There’s been widespread devastation”, from the town of Lockport that was in the direct path of Major Hurricane Harvey’s eye.  This town of around 10,000 people has received some of the more significant damage from the winds that reached over 125 mph with gusts to 150 mph. Rockport resident Robert Jackson said riding out the storm was “about the most stressful thing I’ve ever been through.” He said he didn’t sleep at all overnight because the wind “sounded like a freight train with square wheels.”

“This is my last one to ride out, I’ll tell you that,” he said.

About 50 to 60% of residents decided to stay in the city through the storm, officials told CNN. Police received calls of roofs ripped off homes and walls falling on people. The system moved just fast enough that the rain and flooding part of the storm was not nearly as significant as what was about to happen farther to the northeast in Houston, TX.
The hurricane may have weakened to a minimal tropical storm, but now it is over the open water again and pumping more rain into the Houston, TX region and this will continue for another 48 hours before the storm finally exits and heads into Tennessee later this week.  Here is the Category Four Hurricane as it was moving into Rockport Friday night:

It took a few hours before they eye, so well defined, fell apart. The strong organization finally had the eye wall cave in and fall apart by early mid-morning on Saturday, August 26th. The system then stalled and turned southeast before moving back out over the Gulf of Mexico.  The steering currents were weak in response to the main jet stream located over the northern plains diving southeast through the Great Lakes. This left the conditions for the storm to meander around for a few days, and unfortunately set the stage for rainfall amounts to approach the unimaginable 50″ near the Houston, TX metropolitan area.

There are so many stories coming out of survival and rescue.  Incredibly the death toll has remained somewhat low, but it seems to be on the rise. There is another part of the story that is rarely told. The pictures coming in showing people saving their pets and wild life can really touch your emotions.

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Louis Marquez carries his dog Dallas through floodwaters after rescuing the dog from his flooded Houston home.

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Heartwarming photos have emerged of a man rescuing five beloved horses from the severe flooding in his rural town triggered by the worst storm in a decade in New South Wales.  Steve Spowart helped the horses’ owner, Sonia Sharrock, to lead the animals to safety near Dungog, in the NSW Hunter region, one of the hardest hit areas in the state, where three people died in the severe weather, four houses were washed away and the town received the most rainfall it had by far in their recored history.  Mr Spowart, in a black wetsuit, paddled out on his surfboard to where the horses were stranded, past trees, bushes and fences submerged in the floodwater that was almost as high as his shoulders.

The rain started falling in Houston, TX, the fourth largest city in the United States, on Friday. Close to 30 inches or more of rain has fallen in communities around Houston and unfortunately it is not even close to being done yet. The rain continues to fall. By 5:11 PM yesterday, Tropical Storm Harvey had fully gotten back over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  And, by 7 PM tonight here is one forecast showing that it will still be offshore but about to make landfall once again.  Here is a visible satellite picture from late Monday afternoon showing the circulation with one convective shower right in the middle of the Tropical Storm:

The storm will stay over the open water today and tonight, and likely make landfall once again on Wednesday.

Weather2020, using the Cycling Pattern Hypotheses (CPH), predicted a major hurricane would form over the Gulf of Mexico weeks before this storm developed. In fact, during the Weather2020 forecast for the eclipse it was clearly stated that there would be another tropical system, likely a hurricane during eclipse week based on what had already happened in the previous cycle when Tropical Storm Cindy took a similar path. Cindy ended up moving over Tennessee, and this is the path that the remnants of Harvey is about to take as well. This is the only forecast made weeks to months before the storm even showed any hint of forming, another accurate long range forecast using the CPH.  The forecast of a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico was made in a Powerpoint presentation to a large insurance company on August 3rd.  This forecast was made three weeks before Major Hurricane Harvey formed.  How is this possible? We used knowledge of the cycling pattern, the organization to the chaos in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Take a look at the latest forecast valid Friday morning:

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As you can see, the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey are forecast to be spinning over Tennessee into eastern Arkansas and extreme southeast Missouri into Kentucky at 7 AM Friday.  Another tropical system is forecast to develop near Baja California. In Kansas City, the circulation from Harvey influences the weather in a great way with sunshine, light north winds, and dry weather.

Over the next 24 to 48 hours the flooding will likely worsen before they finally can begin the clean up process. During this period the tremendous effort of rescuing and helping so many that are still in danger will be ongoing.  The incredible stories of survival will continue to come in and there are so many people helping out in this effort.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Weather Pattern Hypothesis.  Let us know if you have any questions as we have a good dialogue going over on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day.

Gary

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