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High Risk Day

Good morning bloggers,

12:30 PM Update:

Look at what is coming into Chicago during the Bears game. There likely will be a delay!

1

As the Chiefs get ready to play Denver this evening a severe weather outbreak is expected to be in progress over the Great Lakes states into the Ohio River Valley.  This system is moving so fast, and it will be quite interesting to see how this evolves today. It will blow right through the high risk area. And, as it does the big question will be how strong and organized will today’s event evolve:

1This is the risk from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).  The high risk is centered over western Indiana.  A cold front will be blowing through Kansas City early this morning and our strong southwest wind will become just as strong or stronger from the northwest today.  As this front blows through And heads into the High Risk area conditions will become almost ideal for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The days are short, the sun will set early, but we could have a big problem later this afternoon.

2This next map from the SPC shows the tornado risk, and the hatched area is where EF-2 or stronger tornadoes are expected and centered right over the high risk forecast.

The front is now blowing through our area. I just plotted the 7 AM Surface map that shows one of two strong low pressure areas and high levels of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that is already in place to our east:

3

 

The cold front will blow through KC and our entire viewing area this morning, and then the stage is set for the potential outbreak later today. Hopefully anything significant will stay out over open country today.

The weather in Denver will be calm and almost perfect for football this evening. It is finally here. Today is the day. How will the KC Chiefs do?  Remember, even if they lose their record is 9-1, but can you imagine if the pull off the upset? This is one of the things so great about sports.  Let’s see what happens!

Gary

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40 comments to High Risk Day

  • greek

    Having to put up with these miserable winds is bad enough, but to not get even a drop of rain out of the system is just pitiful.

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    My grandfather just passed away, so I’m out of state right now. But what luck to have a big storm chance follow me here! Something good had to happen to me this week!

    I’m up in the Grand Rapids, MI area (just west of it)and getting rained on as I type! It’s been off and on rain all night and a few gusts of wind. I’m looking forward to some good storms hitting today.

    Wish everyone back home was getting in on some of the rain too! Looks like there are some chances later on in the 7 day forcast though.

  • Drought Miser

    These storms folks are they one’s I have been preaching about the last few months on here…Crazy I tell you this stuff is just nuts!! How many of these oddities must we endure before we cut our green house gases??

    Here’s a qoute from Reed Timmer off my facebook page…”Latest morning HRRR model forecast shows a line of isolated supercells from southwest Lower MI extending south through central/southwest IN to southeast IL by 3 pm CST.

    Looks like tornadic supercells could be close to my hometown of Grand Rapids, MI by 2-4 pm EST. I sure never thought I’d be chasing tornadoes in Michigan at this time of year! Last time I was storm chasing in late November in Michigan was a lake effect snow squall event in 2010.”

    • Fred Souder

      Hey Drought Miser,
      I can never tell whether you actually believe your comments or if you are being sarcastic. Anyway, it seems like you are at least interested in these things, so here is a graph of November EF 2+ tornado outbreaks so you can see just how amazingly unprecedented this outbreak really is:

      “http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/november_significant_tornadoes_by_year-1024×529.gif”

      Glad to help further your cause…
      Fred

  • Drought Miser

    The SPC just shifted the High Risk Area to include Chicago well almost the whole state of IL almost to the Mo state line and whole state of Indiana

  • VerySkeptical

    Listening to LRC theory is one thing, but seeing posts about cutting greenhouse gases is another. The IPCC had to change numbers around just to support it’s theory. Drought Miser, tell me what normal is. I want to know. I thought normal was just the average of temperatures/precip. With averages you have extreme highs and lows. Keep your Global Warming/Climate Change (they changed to this because the earth was not warming) comments to yourself. If you recycle, good for you. But obviously you have electricity so you better cancel it, quit driving, and slow your breathing.

  • Drought Miser

    SEL2

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 562
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1120 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
    INDIANA
    FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY
    LOWER MICHIGAN
    WESTERN OHIO
    LAKE HURON
    LAKE MICHIGAN

    * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL
    800 PM EST.

    …THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…

    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
    SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
    NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
    GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
    SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
    BLOOMINGTON INDIANA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW MICHIGAN.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
    OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

  • Drought Miser

    Imagine when this monster storm cycles back through it will be a weather wallop that is for sure!!

  • greek

    Hey, where did all the wind go?

    • greek

      Ah, there it is again. It calmed down here for a couple hours, but now it’s back with a vengeance. Damn, I’m sick of wind.

  • Bryan L

    Chiefs will lose…book it! Simply not good enough to beat a quality team! Gary, I thought you said the wind would stop and be calm by today…looks like it’s still blowing to me.

  • Skylar

    A wind gust of 54mph was reported in Gardner about an hour ago.

    “http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=eax&product=lsr&issuedby=EAX&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0″

  • Drought Miser

    I just saw a leaf-nado or leaf-devil on Johnson Dr and Ikea(eby)way Crazy wind out there right now folks!!!

  • Drought Miser

    Gary,
    there is a little short wave spinning around the parent low spawning a few showers and T-storms near Mo-Iowa border interesting feature on Radar

  • mukustink

    Just another example of global warming causing violent outbreaks.

    • Drought Miser

      Finally someone on my side thanks Mukus!

      • mukustink

        I was hoping to get something started with that comment :). Guess folks are to busy with football. Where can I find the Chiefs game tonight? What channel? Go Chiefs! Knock Manning out EARLY is are only chance.

  • johnnysoko

    I love these winds! No raking as the leaves all blow up the street and out of the yard :). My flying robot is grounded though because of the winds which stinks because I wanted to fly over the tornado areas and take pictures. Maybe tomorrow?

  • sedsinkc

    Wow. Latest tornado warnings in Indiana have the tornadoes moving northeast at 70 to 75 mph!!

  • Drought Miser

    Seds,
    Just more of the “New Normal” I’ve been preaching about on here prayers and bless those in the path of these “superstorms” two in less then a month at opposite ends of the globe…I’m sure its “just coincidence”

    • Fred Souder

      Lets try that November tornado map again…

      “http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/november_significant_tornadoes_by_year-1024×529.gif”

      maybe this link will work!

      enjoy

      • Fred Souder

        nope didn’t work. It is because the copy was replacing the x with a times symbol! Dang!
        Here

        “http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/november_significant_tornadoes_by_year-1024×529.gif”

        try that one!

        • Fred Souder

          Ahh. WordPress is changing the 1024×529 to 1024(times)529 when I post the comment. To see the graph, change the X symbol to a lower case x and it should work.
          Sorry!

          • sedsinkc

            Nice graph. My only caveat is the graph does not show WHERE the outbreaks occurred. I would like to know how many large tornadoes have occurred during November in Illinois and Indiana. I would bet the big outbreaks have mostly occurred south of those states, but I’d like to see some maps or something.

          • sedsinkc

            Interesting…Indiana has had the 2nd most EF3+ November tornadoes between 1950 and 2011, including 1 EF4. But Illinois is well down the list. The Gulf Coast states dominate the EF2+ stats. Will be interesting to see if any EF4 tornadoes occurred today. That website ustornadoes.com indicates there has never been an EF5 tornado recorded in November. I need to learn how to use WordPress to copy/paste graphs so I can put them here. For reference, here is the entire article that includes the graph you posted, Fred. “http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/11/15/significant-november-tornadoes-in-the-united-states/”

  • Drought Miser

    will do Fred

  • Drought Miser

    Yikes there is a lot of Tornado activity in November according to that graph… 1992 was a bad year

  • Hockeynut69

    I guess all the people that were on Mars moved to Earth because of all the green house gases they emitted there dried up all the water and changed their atmosphere. The tree huggers just won’t give up, yet Al Gore and many others that promote this nonsense continue to blow through fossil fuels like Nancy Pelosi goes through plastic surgeries.

    • sedsinkc

      Okay….In reality, the planet cooled internally, volcanic activity ceased, and the iron core of Mars solidified, which killed the planet’s magnetic field. Without it, the solar wind stripped most of its atmosphere, which cooled the planet and lowered its air pressure to the point where water could no longer exist in the liquid phase for very long. You’ll have to consult with that Greek guy with the crazy hair on Ancient Aliens to discover where the Martians actually went.

  • Emaw

    Hockeynut69, hilarious!

  • trinlivco

    No high risk for the Chillicothe area, the dome is it place again. Trenton got a good rain but as what as come as a normal pattern the last two years Chillicothe area got a big fat zero. This drought is hard to take, maybe some day it will rain here again. I have almost lost all hope of ever seeing wet weather in this area again. TR

  • Fred Souder

    Yes,
    November outbreaks are pretty common. You have a strengthening Jet stream with cold air available and warm air still in place some years, so lots of November outbreaks of bad tornadoes.
    So, we just need to dig a little deeper to get to that “new Normal” or “unprecedented” level.
    So I say:
    November outbreaks of Tornadoes on Football Sunday that causes game postponements is Unprecedented!

    • sedsinkc

      We’ll have to wait on the final counts and intensity surveys, but this could be an unprecedented outbreak for as far north as it occurred. At least unprecedented in our historical record. Maybe not though, we’ll have to wait and see.

      • Fred Souder

        In regards to your Mars explanation:
        We have just recently found that huge chunks of Earth’s atmosphere are also being swept away periodically by the solar wind, just like Mars’ atmosphere of old. However, Earth has a lot of Volcanism which replenishes our atmosphere, thankfully. So, some are suggesting that the reason Mars atmosphere is so thin is not because of the garbled magnetic field, but instead because there is not enough volcanism to replenish the atmosphere. I guess either way it is ultimately because of the cooling of the interior. At least until some other discovery proves all of it wrong :)

      • Fred Souder

        Yes, this was pretty far north for an outbreak at this time of year. I know most of the Dec. and Jan. outbreaks occurred in the far south. Haven’t researched November, though.

  • Kole Christian

    I like how people want to think they can control the weather, good luck with that!

  • Skylar

    Anybody think EAX might be getting too excited too soon for this? I’m pretty sure the GFS is still showing a mainly rain event across the area.

    “Thursday Night: Rain likely in the evening…then rain and snow likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Moderate snow accumulations possible [North].

    Friday: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow possibly mixed with rain. Highs in the upper 30s.”