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High clouds today as storm tracks south of us

Good morning 41 Action News Weather Bloggers,

The weather forecast across Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and across southern Missouri is a tough one today. Will it rain or change to snow? We don’t have to worry about this problem in our area.  Here is the 7 AM surface map:

1I

I am going to keep today’s blog short and just ask this question today. Do you think it will snow again this season?  I say it will next week.  A storm system around a week from Wednesday or Thursday will be strong enough to bring us some accumulation of snow IF it takes the right track. There is also a system that could bring us snow early next week. And, a strong cold front Thursday may bring a few flurries. So, what do you think?

Gary

 

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42 comments to High clouds today as storm tracks south of us

  • yewtrees

    Gary;
    If you have a tough time today to forecast the storm south of us whether it will snow or rain, I will not feel confident to say the snow will occur (“I say it will next week”) a week from today if I were you.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Seems every week we here at least once about a snow chance the following week. I am going to say no. Throwing a bunch of darts at a board and having some stick doesn’t make you accurate or precise. So, I am saying no, the weather is too warm and we will not have a single day where the high temp is below freezing.

    We may have flurries, but that is not “snow”.

    • Even though I said it will snow next week, my confidence level is still shaky with what has been going on. Hopefully it will at least rain with that second bigger storm. And, I agree, flurries is now snow!

      • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

        Any chance we get clipped by today’s storm? Seems to be on a north by northeast track.

      • SnowComando

        Gary, Sure looks like something is heading this way?

        “http://weather.weatherbug.com/MO/Kansas%20City-weather/local-radar/doppler-radar.html?zcode=z5830&map_id=258&prev_metro_map_id=-1&prev_sectional_map_id=-1&prev_regional_map_id=-1&map_animate=1″

  • HeatMiser

    Sorry Gary, flurries don’t count. Mabye you should have asked, “Do you think we will get any measurable snow again?”. I don’t think it’s asking to much to call a minimum of one inch measurable snow. It’s extremely low criteria to call it a storm, but it’s better than “flurries”.

  • davidmcg

    flurries yes, accumulating snow no. This will be the way of the weather into spring and summer. Storm systems that would give us 1″+ of rain will only give us 0.50″ at best and they will be few and far between. The drought is going to really dig in hard and as the heat builds, we are going to witness something most of us can not even relate to. This is not going to be a good year for precip for us. But I believe that will all cjange this fall when the next LRC develops. If your a storm chaser, you better just set your sights on south of the KS/OK border or up into the Dakotas. One maybe two shots of anything within 100 miles of KC.

  • sedsinkc

    We’ll probably get measurable snow yet. “Measurable” is as little as 0.1 inches. If we don’t get 0.9 inches before snow season ends, this will be the 3rd least snowiest winter on record, immediately following last winter’s #1 least snowiest. Third least snowiest winter currently is 5.5 inches in 1949-50. The last 2 winters would also be the least snowiest consecutive winters combined on record.

  • sedsinkc

    There is also the remote possibility that KCI could have a major hailstorm with measurable accumulation before July 1. This would increase the snowfall tally, as hail accumulation is counted as “snowfall” in official records. Totals for each snowfall year/season are tallied from July 1 to June 30 of the following year.

  • Farmgirl

    I think we will get snow mid-march. It always snows around Spring break.

    • weatherman brad

      I hope it doesn’t snow on spring break. I am headed to the deserts of Arizona to see my aunt. please keep the snow out of my spring break forecast.

      brad

  • sedsinkc

    I just saw a hilarious cartoon. Jen Carfagno of TWC tweeted a link to the FB page of Craig Allen, the on-air chief met at WCBS in NYC for the past 30 years. The cartoon depicts how meteorologists view the 3 primary forecast models as students taking a test. On the left was a very studious, seriousl-looking girl working on her paper or test. This was the ECMWF (Euro) model. Next to her was a girl who was nervously peeking at the ECMWF girl’s paper. This was the GFS. And last was a kid who looked just like Ralph Wiggum (Simpsons character) picking his nose and staring blankly into space. This was the NAM! Too bad I can’t post a link to it.

  • nofluer

    Did you mean “flurries”? Or perhaps Furies? Or maybe you’re having a flashback to your college days and you meant “Furries”?

    Sorry… it gets confusing in here sometimes… and you keep saying that “flurries” are not snow. But if the tiny little white bits of frozen moisture formed around dust motes (aka “snow flakes”) are NOT “snow, then what ARE they? And once you open the door to “snow flakes” the question arises, “yeah, but what KIND of “flakes”? Friendly? malicious? Just a bit odd in mannerisms?

    This place is becoming confusing. I never realized that weather forecasting could be so complicated!
    ;-D

    • HeatMiser

      Yes, they are snowflakes. I think the point is the odds of a snowflake or two sometime in the next two months is extremely high and quite insignificant. What I would really like a prediction on is how many snow events we might get that actually are measurable and of some consequence.

  • Emaw

    Afpilot is on to it, it goes something like this, 3 weeks ago it was going to snow 2 weeks ago, 2weeks ago it was going to snow last week, last week it was going to snow this week, and now this week it ‘s going to snow next week. Total snowfall from all of this stands at 0.00″. Projected outcome from this same scenario the rest of the winter (only a couple weeks from meteorological spring) 0.00″. I also see the “cold blast” coming now consists of one day at 32 deg.

  • Sweetescape

    Based on this current season and recalling last, I would have to lean towards no, at least none of any significance. Just hope next winter will return to something close to normal.

    • nofluer

      “…something close to normal.”

      Suggest you look back to ’88 and ’89… this IS “normal” per the 11 year +/- Sun cycle. (This iteration they kept saying “Solar Max is coming next year” and then it didn’t, and they’d say it again, and it didn’t…)

  • Theo

    Will any one storm produce 1 inch or more of snow at KCI in February? NO

    Will any one storm produce 1 inch or more of snow at KCI in March? Yes – 1 will.

    That will be it for snow for this season.

  • mattmaisch

    There is simply nothing that suggests that we should expect any additional snow accumulation this winter. Certainly it’s possible that we will still see snow accumulation, but my money says it simply ain’t happening. Even on the rare occasions in which it looked like we would have appreciable snowfall, something always prevented it. I expect this trend will continue.

  • HeatMiser

    Nobody knows if we will get a measurable snow in the next month or so. We’ve had two early in the winter (albeit not very impressive, certainly measurable). That could certainly happen again, even with more snow this time. But it could also easily not happen. I am leaning towards one relatively small event hitting us somewhere in the 2-5 inch range in the next few weeks.

  • mowermike

    Like I said yesterday, a wild end to Feb.will be here soon. Active Pacific will offer many chances of moisture in the next 3 weeks.

    100% chance of accumulating snow between now and March 5th. More then 8(this could be low) inches total is likely by March 5th.(4-county area) I say (3) more accumulating snows.

  • FARMERMIKE

    so if any of this really happens how about north central kansas will we see any measurable snow in this next 3 weeks

  • McCabe58

    Any chance of that precip south west of here making it into the metro this afternoon/evening?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    All that nice moisture passing by to the south. Time to sponsor an Indian rain dance in KC. Someone Carrying the curse with them.

  • Greenstein

    I think what we’ve seen the last 2 winters is a sign of things to come for many years.

    • rred95

      Thats it ? Just that statment without any backing or evidence?? What are we supposed to take from that??

      • Greenstein

        My apologies. No facts whatsoever, just a gut feel I have. I think the blazing hot, windy summers will continue with little to no precipitation. I think the warm, windy, bone dry winters will also continue. I just don’t think there will be a driving force to change the current setup for several years.

    • sedsinkc

      I do not agree. It is all natural variability. The drought will end sooner or later, like they all do. That will help get us more moisture opportunities. We will be going past a solar sunspot maximum in early 2013 (we may have already passed it?) toward a solar minimum 5-6 years hence, and the winters are usually colder during solar minimums.

      • nofluer

        Yep… and as I said above – normal for this year will probably be comparable to ’89 (LRC permitting…) :-D

  • plowboy87

    We will definitely get more snow before the end of the season because I have all my equipment cleaned up and put away.

    • RickMckc

      That’s the best forecast reasoning yet! I’ll second Mike’s forecast on that logic – at least 8″ more between now and March 12.

    • RickMckc

      Actually, if the 18z GFS verified (and I know it won’t), we could get all of that and more in one week.1.67″ of moisture in the second week, all in the form of snow.

      “http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmci”

      We can dream a little, can’t we?

      The GFS has been very consistent for the past several days showing a snowstorm here on the 21st.

  • dpollard

    The snow is over for this season and perhaps not until 2014 as this drought pattern may last until then. I hate to say it but I think things are going to worsen.