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Heavy Rain & Flooding Potential

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • This morning: A few showers and thunderstorms staying below severe levels. A few heavy downpours and cloudy skies.  Temperatures will be tropical in the 70s.
  • This afternoon:  Heating up with high humidity.  High:  85°
  • Tonight:  A chance of a strong line of thunderstorms with very heavy rain possible between 7 and 10 PM.

A few areas of thunderstorms have greeted the plains on this August 16th morning.  The largest complex of thunderstorms was over north central Kansas and was a Mesoscale Convective System showing some organization. This will track east this morning and then weaken.  After this goes by, there will likely be enough time for the atmosphere to destabilize ahead of a developing frontal system and summer storm.

Screen Shot 2017-08-16 at 7.08.09 AM

There is another potential heavy rain event setting up near KC.  There are a few factors that may come together this evening to place some areas near Kansas City to have over 3″ of rain, and the areas that get that much would likely experience some flooding. Anything more than 3″ would increase the risk of a flooding event.

  • Ingredient #1: Low level moisture. We once again have high levels of moisture available from the Gulf of Mexico. The Dew Points are forecast to be reaching the middle to upper 70s as we approach sunset
  • Ingredient #2:  A cold front will slowly move in from the west and will likely be the focusing mechanism for the heavy thunderstorms this evening
  • Ingredient #3:  A series of weak upper level disturbances in a rare summer pattern. There is an upper level trough swinging out over the plains today

Concern:  We must monitor the morning showers and thunderstorms as it may very well affect the late day set-up.  We will know more as we move into the late afternoon hours. Let’s take a look.

2

The front will be approaching Kansas City this evening and the humidity will once again become rather extreme and pool along and ahead of this front. This will provide the fuel for potential very heavy rainfall. The front should move fast enough to keep amounts from getting out of control, but we have to monitor this very closely as it develops this evening.

Todays Severe Weather Risk:

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The main severe weather types expected will be some marginally large hail on the first thunderstorms that form, and possibly some damaging winds. Lighting will help cause some power outages, and flooding is the main risk today.

The weather pattern will calm down significantly tomorrow as you can see on this forecast map below.

1Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Weather Pattern.  You can leave a comment here or join in the conversation over on Weather2020.com.  Have a great day. Let’s see how this evolves today.

Gary

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5 comments to Heavy Rain & Flooding Potential

  • Kole Christian

    I’m looking forward to lots of snow this winter!

    This mornings is was really neat to watch the storms after they passed through. Often times it’s hard to see individual storms after they’ve passed because of residual clouds.

  • stevie

    Hi Gary, MWS issued their fall forecast which from what I can tell, is a La Nina pattern shaping up. Does that mean a dry fall with above normal temps? Also do you think we will have a wild winter? I for one think it’s going to be a rough, wild winter.

    • It is way too early to forecast the weather for the fall, unfortunately. Maybe we can broadbrush with one statement due to a weak La Nina forming, but last year those forecasts failed miserably by these same sources that are taking a stab at it now.

      Gary

  • stevie

    Thanks for the response Gary, I agree with the assessment. Thought there were some interesting features with NWS forecast but yeah, the LRC is the most reliable method I have come across.