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Heat Wave Watch

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have been targeting this next week for a potential heat wave for quite sometime based on the CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis), and well it is on its way.  The anticyclone, upper level high, or also know as “The Heat Wave Creating Machine” will be heading out of the Rockies this week and extending into the middle of the USA.

Here is the upper level flow for today.   We are still in northwest flow which does keep the door open to thunderstorms, but there are no significant boundaries or disturbances around to generate organized activity.  The chance of rain is 10% or less, so we will leave the forecast dry.

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The upper level flow by Thursday will feature an upper level high in the Rockies, and a second center in the Tennessee Valley.  This means temperatures will be heating up and our first heat wave of the summer is likely.  The jet stream with its rain-making disturbances will be well to the north, flowing into the Great Lakes.

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Rainfall the next 5-7 days around here will be sparse with a few thunderstorms roaming northern Missouri.  The best rainfall will occur from Minnesota to Ohio as these locations are closer to the jet stream.  So, most of the corn belt will be in good shape this week with the exception being the southwest corner of the belt, our area.  Our region will be mostly dry with heat.

Also, it takes 1″ to 2″ of rain per week to keep your yard green, so the sprinklers will be a must if you want the yard to stay green.  One suggestion is to water just the front yard and let the back turn brown as it may be too hard and costly to try and keep up with the hot and dry conditions.  This is likely going to last at least 7-10 days.

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Now, let’s go through the forecast and get into what will likely be the first heat wave of the summer.

SATURDAY: This will be a great summer day with sunshine, light winds and highs around 90°.

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SUNDAY: The temperatures will be on the way up as we reach the low to mid 90s.  An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, but the chance of being affected is 10% or less.

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MONDAY MORNING: An organized cluster of thunderstorms will be likely from Wisconsin to northern Illinois, well to our northeast as this is where the jet stream energy is more prevalent.  We will start the day in the 70s.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The heat wave will likely begin as highs reach the mid to upper 90s.  The cold front to the north will stall, then retreat, bringing no relief to Kansas and Missouri.  A few thunderstorms may drift in Monday evening or night as they form to the north, but again, the chance of being affected is 10% or less.

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What is the definition of a heat wave?  Well, it is different for different parts of the country.  In Kansas City, it is three consecutive days of 95° or higher.

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It looks like day 1 is Monday as we are forecasting a high of 97°.  Our forecast for Tuesday is 98° and for Wednesday is 99°.  There will be a nice breeze each day, but it will not help much.

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As you can see we are going for highs of 97°, 98° and 99°.  So, reaching 100° is not out of the question.  We are holding off for two reasons.  The first is that let’s see how how hot it becomes during these three days, because if the dew points stay up it may only reach 94°-96°.  The second reason is the length of time since KC officially reached 100°. Do you know how long it has been?

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Yes, it has been awhile.  But, if you have been a regular reader of the blog, you know we have been saying our first 100° will occur this summer.  If it does not officially reach 100° next week, it will come darn close.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

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