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Good morning bloggers,
A dangerous heat wave will be gaining strength during the rest of this week. Last night at 10 PM I upped the highs to 108° on three of the seven days. Today is day four of the current and strengthening heat wave and temperatures should surge to near or above 100°. Later in the week the temperatures will have to go higher, possibly much higher:
A huge anticyclone is now forecast to develop later this week and intensify over the weekend. This next map shows the 500 mb level forecast valid at 7 PM Sunday. 500 mb is the pressure around 18,000 feet above the surface and we look at this level as a valuable forecast tool. Usually we are tracking storm systems as they track through the westerlies in the cycling weather patter. A cyclone has a counterclockwise spin in the Northern Hemisphere, while an anticyclone is the exact opposite. In rare weather patterns an anticyclone can dominate the summer pattern in July and August and this is one of those years. The map below shows the forecast flow for later this weekend:
Above, you can see the strong anticyclone intensifying over the central plains states this weekend. But, the heat may build in faster tomorrow and Thursday. Take a look at the latest temperature forecast from the NAM model (12z or 7 AM model run):
This model has been pretty good, but a bit aggressive on the forecasts this summer. The white area indicates 105° or higher, and the second white line indicates 110° or higher. Wow! We will be analyzing this model and the other models that are now coming in and updating the forecast tonight.
Have a great day! We are in for a very significant heat wave.