Good morning bloggers,
The heat wave moves into day eleven today with our 15th 100 degree day of the summer. Here is a look at yesterday’s high temperatures:
We are currently in the middle of the second major heat wave of the summer. Here is a look at the two heat waves:
Heat Wave #1 June-July 2012
- Day 1, June 27: 102°
- Day 2, June 28: 105°
- Day 3, June 29: 102°
- Day 4, June 30: 101°
- Day 5, July 1: 99°
- Day 6, July 2: 97°
- Day 7, Today: 100°
- Day 8, July 4: 102°
- Day 9, July 5: 102°
- Day 10, July 6: 104°
- Day 11, July 7: Near 105°
- On July 8th, the high dropped to 87° with clouds over KCI Airport, it was still in the lower 90s in most locations, but still a break for a few days.
Heat Wave #2 July 14-July 25?
- Day 1, July 14: 97°
- Day 2, July 15: 98°
- Day 3, July 16: 97°
- Day 4, July 17: 100°
- Day 5, July 18: 106°
- Day 6, July 19: 103°
- Day 7, July 20: 96°
- Day 8, July 21: 98°
- Day 9, July 22: 103°
- Day 10, Monday: 105°
- Day 11, Today: 104° Forecast
- Day 12, Wednesday: 107° Forecast
- Day 13, Thursday: Maybe a few thunderstorms and turning cooler, but it looks like only a one to two day break.
A weak cold front is moving our way. It will cross the viewing area between Wednesday evening and Thursday and a few thunderstorms are likely, but how wide spread will they be? Let’s take a look at one forecast for where the surface front will be Wednesday evening at 7 PM:
The upper level high, or anticyclone aloft, is going to shift south tonight and Wednesday before building back in this weekend. A weak disturbance will be moving across Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This combined with the weak convergence along the cold front will likely help produce showers and thunderstorms across our viewing area. The hottest temperatures of the summer, so far, are possible just ahead of this front and we are in prime position to experience this big warm up on Wednesday. The biggest question will be cloud cover later in the day tomorrow. We are currently expecting another sunny day and with the front perfectly positioned just northwest of us Wednesday evening 107° or higher is possible if these conditions verify.
After this front moves through there should be a one to two day break in the heat wave. The real surge of cooler air may not arrive until late Thursday. I am still uncertain about the high temperature Thursday as it may become sunny after the early morning threat of showers and thunderstorms which would allow temperatures to surge up again ahead of the weak cool surge. Friday will likely be below 95°. After Friday it looks like the heat will surge right back in.
Jeremy Nelson, our former weekend meteorologist who now works in Milwaukee at WISN-TV, sent me this picture over the weekend. He experienced a Haboob in Arizona. Desert sandstorms are known as Haboobs. Thanks Jeremy. We miss you! Great picture!
Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. We are debuting our new weather graphics Friday night at 11 PM after the Olympics Opening Ceremonies on 41 Action News. We will be in training most of this week. It is quite intense and we still have a lot to learn. I will try to check in on the blog from time to time if you have any questions or comments.
Gary
Just looked at the 00z ECMWF(European forecast model) 240hr.(next Thurs.August 2)forecast afternoon 850mb.temps.of 36 degrees Celsius over eastern Co. western Ks. Now thats HOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
36=97 fehrenheit
I just looked at it Kevin. It is pretty impressive, but remember the 850 mb level is near the surface out there. It still indicates what could happen if that air moves out over the plains as has happened, especially in the first heat wave of the summer.
Gary
There is no relief ahead. Looks like the only thing they,ll be growing is Jackrabbits:(.
Gary, you are correct indicating the 850mb level.I forgot.Had just woke-up.I am going to go over some 500mb map archives over the next few days to compare the LRC,before I shoot off my neg.comments.I believe you deserve this, Respectably,Kevin
fahrenheit,sorry.I,m not a Harvard Teecher
Good morning Gary—I am still looking up more facts and doing a little more research before I have to go back to my classroom and students—the dry conditions began here in Berryton/Topeka around the end of June of last year—we had 5 straight years of normal or above precipitation then it all stopped last summer—so we finished last year in the hole and will finish this year in the hole–are you seeing anything that can start making the heat waves lessen? The difference between this drought and heat waves and drought and heat of 1954, 1980, and 1988 is that they did not last almost two summers as this has—another weather source is saying if this pattern does not change favorably during this next year then we can call this time a close cousin to the times of the 1930′s minus the dust storms! Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka
Mike,
There are signs of an El Nino developing. This is not a certainty at this point, but that would help tip the scales to a better chance of wetter weather. Right now, we just have to deal with this for at least another month or so. The new weather pattern evolves later in September and October.
Gary
Gary–Yes I am looking forward to that change and to see what sets up for next year—even this heat is getting to me this summer as it has really taken a toll on our lawn despite our watering efforts and the couple of rain storms we had over the last two weeks here—Michael
I’m not sure if anyone here on the blog has experience with this, but I’m considering installing a soaker hose to water the foundation, burying it 3 inches below the ground 6-9 inches away from the foundation. The main problem I worry about with this is our winters always see sub-freezing temperatures, sometimes harsh. Will this damage the soaker hose?
It may rain tomorrow night. Let’s hope so. Some subtle watering around the foundation would help.
GFS just came in super wet for tomorrow night and Thursday. 1-2 inches of rain and widespread.
Gary, stay at 50% or less, let’s not jinx it.
Going on Vacation tomorrow to “cooler” Florida. Maybe if it rains, I’ll stay away, I could be the jinx!!! We’ll find out tomorrow night when I’m in a coma from drinking on the beach tomorrow afternoon…
Chiefs head to camp Friday!! It’s gonna be a great season!!! Manning, step aside, we’re taking the division this year.
G-man: Last week you posted a map of the 16-day GFS. It showed a massive new heat wave forming.
Can you please post an updated chart? Recognizing that it’s a “fantasy” forecast, it would still be interesting to see. Thanks!
This is my entry from last night on the previous blog. Anyone else experience this?
“The air sure smells different on this still night. It is ozone I am smelling? Never smelled it at night but it is reminiscent of the smell after rain and obvious that isn’t the case.”
I did
I am getting tired of this excessive heat this week and also the heat wave for next week to, i really can’t wait to have our first snowstorm of the 2012-2013 winter season and wondering what the pattern will feel and be like then. Fall please come quickly.
Brad
I noticed that this morning also…
oops this post was for Hillsdale_bruce
I read a little on Wikipedia about it. Section 5.2 after finding the Ozone entry. Interesting about it deteriorating rubber tires (older ones). Let’s hope we can smell the better variety assuming it rains in a day or two.
don,t hold your breath
Last Tuesday July 17th there was quite an uproar in here about the forecasted temperatures. Who was right, why was Gary so high on his forecast compared to others. Were the others just to scared to forecast that high and Gary the only bold forecaster to tell the truth. Well all that discussion prompted me to put a spreadsheet(see below) together with the Tuesday forecasts from various sources. As you can see, KMBC was the clear winner. They were the only ones to not forecast over 100 on Saturday and they were the only ones that were correct. Gary on the other had was off by 10 degrees on Saturday. Gary tied with the two other sources on number of days within 3 degrees but as you can see his variance was higher than the other two. I don’t have any alligence to KMBC as a matter of fact I never watch their weather it was just the other station that was mentioned in the blog that day. The other two I picked because I get an email every morning from FOX 4 so the information was easy to get and Weather Bug is the app on my phone.
Tues Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul
KMBC 101 101 100 98 98 100 101
Gary 100 104 106 102 108 108 108
Fox 98 102 103 105 103 104 102
Bug 98 101 102 99 101 99 98
Actuals 100 106 103 96 98 103 105
Variance
KMBC 1 -5 -3 2 0 -3 -4
Gary 0 -2 3 6 10 5 3
Fox -2 -4 0 9 5 1 -3
Bug -2 -5 -1 3 3 -4 -7
Days within 3 % Within 3 Ave Variance
KMBC 5 71% 2.571428571
Gary 4 57% 4.142857143
Fox 4 57% 3.428571429
Bug 4 57% 3.571428571
This is just one day! But, I guess we had the most accurate forecast for the first three days. And, when I show a forecast of 108, 108, 108 at the end I often am just making a point that it is going to be right. That cold front sneeked into the area and we did forecast it accurately a couple of days later.
Anyway, I am allowing this post, but it does go against the rules of mentioning the competing stations by name.
Gary
How were there spreads on the Prec. That is all anyone would like to know…I believe every one thought it would be HOTTT,correct???
Do you know what the Buzz word for the day is,,,That cotton-picken weather…
Gary, Is the AO(artic oscillation)and NAO(north atlantic oscillation)still in play during the spring/summer mo. of the LRC?
The AO/NAO/MJO etc, etc are always in play summer, winter, fall, spring. To me, the LRC, like the NAO/AO/MJO, is part of something bigger going on, as Gary likes to say. These are all puzzle pieces used to undersatnd that something bigger. I think they are all interrelated. Just my take…
That crazy word should spell understand.
Thanks MCI,I thought the same,except the MJO which is a winter time player?