An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect through Saturday!
Good morning bloggers,
We hope you had a nice celebration on Independence Day! It was 102° yesterday, our sixth 100 degree day so far this summer with many more likely on the way. It was the hottest Independence Day since 1954 when it was 103° that day. The heat wave will grow stronger before a weak cold front moves through this weekend:
Heat Wave June-July 2012
- Day 1, June 27: 102°
- Day 2, June 28: 105°
- Day 3, June 29: 102°
- Day 4, June 30: 101°
- Day 5, July 1: 99°
- Day 6, July 2: 97°
- Day 7, Today: 100°
- Day 8, Wednesday: 102°
- Day 9, Thursday: 103° Forecast
- Day 10, Friday: 105° Forecast
- Day 11, Saturday: Near 107° Forecast
We will be working on some special weather graphics to describe this next change in the weather pattern due in late Saturday night. It looks like the heat wave will take a break Sunday into Tuesday. A cold front will be approaching Kansas City Saturday and this will be a front that stretches from Colorado to New York. Here is a surface forecast map valid at 7 PM Saturday:
How much cooler it will get behind this front is still something we are figuring out, but it will drop at least 10 to 15 degrees, if not a bit more than that. Unfortunately it may be 105 to 110 degrees ahead of this front so a 15 degree drop would get us only down to near 90°. There will be a chance of thunderstorms near the front Saturday night, but right now we have a very slight chance at any one location. The dry summer continues and now it is becoming a serious drought. This is going to be a tough one to break with the jet stream still retreating north as the peak of summer is still a few weeks away. Take a look at this rainfall forecast that I awakened to this morning:
This map, above, shows there rainfall forecast added up over the entire 06z GFS model run through the next sixteen days. Kansas City is just east of the minimum rainfall amount forecast over Kansas of almost no rain. Hopefully this overnight run of the GFS model is just wrong.
Have a great Thursday.
Gary
Gary,
I can not speak for others but I am looking forward to the weather change. What is te weather looking like for the up coming weeks? I know that we need the win, but personally I am happy with the cooler temps.
It should say rain
Gary,
Could the problems with the LRC in terms of short term climate predictions this year be that you guys may not be taking into account the underling “signal” of the warming climate? The extent, duration, and intensity of the current heat wave / drought nationwide has been one of the worst on record, and the heat wave in March was flat out off the charts.
Climatogists have been predicting this for decades, it seems as though local meteorologists are not taking int account that the new normal is much warmer, volatile and more extreme in terms of precipitation and weather events than the old normal of just a couple of decades ago.
Most depressing is how much of this weather pattern we still have to endure… its only july 5th … feels like mid aug.
Hey bloggers…on my way back to Kansas after a nice, cooler than normal summer in California.
I’ve been following the drought religiously because many of my friends are farmers in the area. It looks dry and warm to hot again.
I forgot what nws site said this, but no one during a drought can really forecast widespread rain until it happens lol. Ain’t that the truth
As expected, latest drought monitor shows huge increase in the percentage of Missouri in severe drought. Percent of MO in severe drought rose from 33% last week to 78.7% this week. Kansas had a similar percentage increase on last week’s report. Kansas severe drought increased only slightly this week from 76.5% to 79.9%. Severe drought now encompasses all of Douglas, Wyandotte, Miami, and Johnson County KS and all of Jackson County, most of Clay County, as well as parts of Platte and Cass County, MO.
But as far as Jefferson County KS goes the map is wrong. We have gotten only a tenth of an inch in precip, but the scaled back half the county from severe to moderate. Thats messed up. The higher elevations went from sever to moderate and the water drains from here towards the river. They made an obvious error. Look at the brown precip, the trees losing their foliage, dig a hole and try to find moist dirt 18″ down or deeper, drying up wells and ponds. Snakes have even disappeared. Definitely getting worse here, look at the cracks and drying up creek beds, getting bad.
I sure do hope we get a good decant rain shower over the weekend, i saw the updated drought monitor and for residents living around central and eastern kanas are under a severe drought. I guess i better water some more of my lawn before it gets even worse then expected, also as far as gary said about the rainfall forcast i sure hope he is wrong to on the computer model run that he posted this morning.
Brad
Check with mom and dad before you water their lawn Brad. They may not want the water bill, ok.
Not much of a rain map in terms of hope there Gary. Well, once again, it may be dry there in KC, but as ya come west it gets drier and drier. Out here in the McLouth area we have not even received half as much precip that ya’ll have going back to Sept. 2011 and like you, its getting worse, we all know that. But what I find interesting is that in alleged promising storms of say 40% or better in this general area east of Manhatten on over to just east of the state line and from the Neb/Kan and MIowa border south, those rains don’t produce. But a disorganized system of say 20% or less chance and we get about a quarter inch. just a little odd. But on the flip side, it summer and its dry. Just as it should be. But this heat and lack of precip is supposed to be here mid to late July.
Gary hoping your 7 day forecast stands true. Looks to be perfect for the Home Run Derby and the All Star Game. Can’t wait to check out fanfest tomorrow and then for Monday and Tuesday!
Very interesting article I just read on Yahoo about a St. Joe man who found bottles of whiskey in his attic from the early 1900′s.
“Century-Old Whiskey Bottles Found in Missouri Man’s Attic – Yahoo!”
I bet his “old lady” busted him with his stash..Maybe I,ll use that excuse?
Muku, i am not with my parents thank you very much.
Brad