Good morning bloggers,
Today is the 7th day of the first heat wave of the summer. The next chance of rain is barely showing up for early next week and confidence is quite low at this time. We have a slight chance of thunderstorms on our 7 day for late Sunday into Monday. The latest computer models have very little rain in our area as a very weak cold front will move into our region by Monday and then it is forecast to fall apart south of us around a week from today, leaving it dry and slightly cooler for the Major League Baseball All Star Game one week from tonight.
Heat Wave June-July 2012
- Day 1, June 27: 102°
- Day 2, June 28: 105°
- Day 3, June 29: 102°
- Day 4, June 30: 101°
- Day 5, July 1: 99°
- Day 6, July 2: 97°
- Day 7, Today: 100° Forecast
- Day 8, Wednesday: 102° Forecast
- Day 9, Thursday: 102° Forecast
- Day 10, Friday: 101° Forecast
- Day 11, Saturday: Near 100° Forecast
- Day 12- 13, Sunday into Monday: Possible weak cold front, but the latest data holds it off until Monday and with very little rain.
This map shows the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet up) valid at 7 PM this evening. The main jet stream has weakened into it’s summer position way up to the north dipping south over the Pacific Northwest. This allows the room for the anticyclone to expand north into and over the plains states this week and we will likely see near 100 degree heat every day between now and Sunday. The weather pattern will become more favorable for a weak front to get into the area by early next week, and a likely stronger cold front a few days to a week later. But, this part of the pattern that is creating the conditions for this heat wave will be due to return in August.
Have a great day. We will be preparing some special weather graphics to describe this developing and shifting weather pattern.
Gary
I’m new to the blog and this may have been mentioned already, but one major difference this summer compared to past years has been the surprising lack of humidity with dewpoints consistently in the mid 50s to upper 60s. We just haven’t been that sticky (i.e. dewpoints > 70 degrees) much at all this year, and obviously the lack of rain has obviously played a role in this.
After moving here 10 years ago, I was very surprised to find that dewpoint levels can commonly reach the upper 70s in these parts anytime between May and September. It was just amazing to me that we can be over 800 miles from the nearest beach and yet have the same humidity levels as south Florida. No doubt the normally high spring precipitation (>5 inches per month) plays a role, but crop irrigation and associated evaporation/transpiration has to be another culprit too.
Nevertheless, if this drought continues into August, it seems to me that our dewpoints should remain in check but that our temperatures could really spike if this evil anticyclone (the “heat wave generating machine”, per Gary) doesn’t go away. Would you rather have 95 degrees with a 77 degree dewpoint or 107 degrees with a 55 degree dewpoint? Both sets of conditions are bad, but I think we’re in for at least few days of the latter this summer.
Stay cool everyone! And I mean in a physical as well as a mental sense…:)
Ho hum Gary….nothing to say I guess. Just bad news all around! I prefer this to extreme cold, but still it’s getting old. Thanks for the info from Toby Tobin by the way. I learned a lot. I thought the best time to water the lawn was between midnight and 5am. Despite my best efforts, mine is still turning brown in spots. Thanks again for all you do and for your dedication to this blog. I check it many times a day.
Gary,
Glad to see that there a chance for a break from this heat! I can definitely handle the 90′s better than the 100′s. How long do you think the cooler weather will last? Also when in August are you expecting another heat wave? Hopefully me and son will be back at school and we don’t have to worry about it
Megan.
This weather reminds me of many summers when I lived in North Texas. Seemingly endless sunny days of temps in the 90s/100s with little rain.
Saint Louis NWS office has a much better collection of online climate records than KC office does, imo. They have a handy Xcel spreadsheet listing the ranks for most 100 degree days in a year, most in a summer, and most consecutive. I bring this up because STL is going to come close to their all time record for most consecutive 100 degree days in the next 5 days before relief arrives. Their all-time record for most consecutive 100 degree days is 13, set in 1936. Their second-longest streak of consecutive 100 degree days is 9, also set in 1936. (STL had a total of 37 100 degree days in 1936, while KC had 53). Currently 99 at STL, so 100 is a virtual certainty today, which will make 6 consecutive 100 degree days there. The next 4 days are almost a certainty to reach 100 also, which will make 10 consecutive days, good enough for 2nd place all time. Sunday is forecasted to be 98, which would break the streak, but it’s possible it could still be 100 on Sunday, which would make 11 consecutive days. STL’s streak will likely end next Monday if it does not end Sunday, or unexpectedly, sooner.
Sedsinkc,
Thanks for the information. It will be interesting to see how the models trend in the next few days on the weak cold front on Monday. St. Louis will likely drop below 100 on Monday, maybe Sunday as you suggested.
Gary
Just saw the 7 day forecast from the DVR as we just got back into town for the 4th and to attend the Allstar game and festivities. I hope you are correct as far as the cool down goes for next week. I do not think I have ever seen it this brown this early around here. Going to throw some water on the yard and roof tomorrow just in case the neighbors fireworks land on our property. May not do any good but I guess it can’t hurt. Have a safe and happy 4th everyone!
Hi Gary
I know you aren’t in charge of the weather but I’m really hoping for something to look forward to. Can we expect a return to normalcy for fall and winter? Farmer’s almanac is forecasting normal temps for my area (Gardner/Olathe). They predicted that last year as well but I guess they couldn’t predict the “jet stream”. I’m a cool weather/cloudy day kind of gal. Planning on moving to Oregon/Washington. But until then, a little hope would be appreciated. Thank you!