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5:10 PM update:
Good morning bloggers,
Last night as the sun was setting something unusual was going on. We had broad easterly flow aloft just south of a developing upper level high height area. And, cirrus clouds were moving west as the sun was setting. Usually this level would be from west to east, but instead it was from east to west at around 25,000 feet above sea level. These clouds were setting with the sun. This picture was taken from the time-lapse I showed last night on the 10 PM 41 Action News weather-cast:
There is a rather significant change showing up in the weather pattern for next week that will bring us some relief from the current heat wave that has reached day 10 and will peak at day 11! Our forecast high for Saturday is 107°. This is the second time we have forecast such an extremely high temperature. The hottest temperature in Kansas City’s recorded history was 113°. I strongly believe we will make a run at this record next month. 2012 may very well be the year that we have a record highest temperature. And, it has been so dry. Take a look at the next two graphics:
The latest drought monitor index has place Kansas and Missouri in drought conditions and it is worsening as the days go by without any rain. KCI Airport is now seven inches of rain below average for the year. The corn and soy bean crops are in deep trouble from our region extending northeast through much of the corn belt. The chance of rain near this weekends front is not that great. There will likely be a few thunderstorms but we are not expecting wide spread activity and amounts will likely be quite low if you do end up receiving a thunderstorm.
A weak cold front will somewhat pass through our viewing area on Saturday night and we will welcome any cooling at all. The highs may dip into the upper 80s for a few days next week, but today we reach the 10th day of this heat wave of highs 95° or higher. It all began on June 27th, but one could argue it started three days earlier than that with a high of 99° on June 24th before an even weaker cold front dropped our highs to just below 95°:
Heat Wave June-July 2012
- Day 1, June 27: 102°
- Day 2, June 28: 105°
- Day 3, June 29: 102°
- Day 4, June 30: 101°
- Day 5, July 1: 99°
- Day 6, July 2: 97°
- Day 7, Today: 100°
- Day 8, Wednesday: 102°
- Day 9, Thursday: 102°
- Day 10, Friday: 104° Forecast
- Day 11, Saturday: Near 107° Forecast
Click on this next map for a larger view. This is the 850 mb forecast, about 5,000 feet above sea level. I plotted in a dashed white line in the center of the heat axis at this height level. This shows the center of this heat directly over our viewing area. I pointed the arrows at the 25°C line, and you can see the tight packing of the temperature lines from Nebraska northeast to Chicago, IL. This is a baroclinic zone, or frontal zone. The leading edge of the gradient is just northwest of Missouri. This is the front at this level and it will move southeast by Sunday morning. Cooler air will arrive and it will be a welcome relief Sunday through much of next week. There will likely be a few thunderstorms near and behind the front. We have a 20% chance of rain in the forecast right now. Let’s see how it sets up tomorrow.Gary
all i can say is ‘wow.’ this has been incredible. i’ve lived in the area most all of my life and can’t recall a stretch like this. of course, i might have chosen to forget it too!
any stats on this? daily records, sure, but longest continuous stretch of a heat wave? this one has got to be close to the top if not THE top.
We’ve had so many brutal summers I don’t think we’re close to a record for consecutive 100 degree days. Look back at the July records from KC and 1954 and 1934 are worse. In 1954 July 11-13 were all above 108! And this after a lot of 100s early in the month (including the record for July 6 which could fall today).
I also doubt we’ll challenge the 113 record later this year. So far the most extreme forecasts have fallen a few degrees short. By the time the next big heat dome rolls around the days will be a bit shorter and even a small amount of tropical or monsoon moisture could prevent going much above 100 (though the heat indices could be as bad or worse).
thanks r-dub… you’re probably correct. at any rate this one is lasting long enough. i try not to think much about it. can’t do anything about it anyway except to stay out of it.
good excuse to play Polar Bowler where the alleys and scenes are all ice and snow covered. seems refreshing anyway!
R-Dub the top ten hottest temps every recorded in KC history all occurred in mid-to-late July with the majority of them happening in August. I think if we are going to push towards that record it would naturally happen during the hottest months of the year, July and August.
1936 had 16 straight days of over 100….
glad i missed it.
And nobody had a/c either…amazing.
correct, at least not widespread residential use until the ’50s. carrier actually invented it in 1902, and early cooling related systems go back as far as ancient rome.
Ive heard that a/c was invented mainly to help cardboard and paper plants…they wanted to reduce the humidity to keep paper from curling or sticking together. All the earlier cooling systems added moisture to the air but a/c removed it.
that is correct. willis carrier worked at such a plant. evaporative cooling systems using ammonia had been invented far earlier. he perfected the process to help the papers and ink with lower temps and esp lower humidity.
My 102-year old grandmother tells stories of growing up in hot KC summers. Her father would bring home a block of ice from the ice house and put a fan in front of it. All the family would gather together in one room, sitting in front of the fan, as they did their needlework, etc.
What’s the record for days over 90?
Good morning Gary—We on in day 14 of the heat wave here near Topeka as it started on June 23rd–95 degrees—I am more concerned with the drought than the heat (though I am tired of it). I grew up in Wichita and have lived in Kansas all my life–I did a little research and found that after the year I was born was very hot-1954—1980 was hot–and now the last half of last summer through this point has been incredible especially with the low moisture–1954, 1957-1958, 1980, 1988, and last year and so far this year have been significant years that have recorded below rainfall. (of course the 1930′s was quite an event) But this stretch of higher temps–no snow—and increasing drought conditions is making this experience quite a learning one for sure. And your photograph with the clouds again very odd—Take care–am looking forward maybe for a little rain but cooler temps–Michael/Berryton/Topeka
i don’t know how much rain it would take to end the drought, esp in western KS, but i’m pretty sure we’re not going to see anywhere near enough until at least fall.
Baseball Mike,
What site do you use to get historical rainfall data for various locations.
Thanks.
It’s hot but at least the humidity is lower than normal. Late afternoon and evenings have been fairly pleasant for outdoor activities despite the high temps.
I’m curious to see how it feels next week. 0Z NAM showed a high of 107 with RH of 25% tomorrow, followed by a “cool down” to a high of 97 with 40% RH on Sunday. I wonder which will feel better.
I’m starting to think today–Friday–may perhaps be hotter than tomorrow.
Brad C—NWS Wichita has a great deal of back dated information more than Topeka. I have also e-mailed a couple of meteorologists at NWS in Topeka and Wichita in the past and they sent me quite a bit of information. I have also e-mailed, quite a while ago, Mary Knapp, our state climatologist, over at K-State. One more piece of collected information that I have is a book I got at one of our Friends of the Library sale–it is called The State of Kansas Board of Agriculture Book on Climatology dated up to 1980. It has quite a bit of information record wise from 1980 back to 1887. Hope this helps—-Michael/Berryton/Topeka
Gary I know it’s been hot but I doubt we make a run at 113. Do you HONESTLY believe that or are you just saying that for “marketing” reasons. I think 107 may be a stretch. I guess time will tell. Good blog write up by the way.
MUKU,
I think we will make a run at it later this month, or more likely in August.
Gary
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“http://news.yahoo.com/century-old-whiskey-bottles-found-missouri-mans-attic-152012321–abc-news-topstories.html”
11:00 am and already 95 crazy. Looks like we may hit the mid 100′s. Heading down to MLB fanfest. Is anyone else going to the Home Run Derby and All Star Game? Gary you going? Glad fanfest is inside!
this sounds nice…buenos aires:
Weather: 50° F, Wind S at 9 mph, 28% Humidity
My wife and I were there at this exact time several years ago. Amazing to experience the summer to winter transition in a matter of hours! Nice city and people, too!
never been anywhere in the southern hemisphere. sounds like fun.
Gary, any idea what is up with the NWS station at the airport? Quite often it is saying that the weather is “mostly cloudy” when I only wish there was a cloud in the sky. How can they honestly post that when if you look outside (rule #1) you would see that it wasn’t correct?
It’s not just the crops that are going to be a loss, but livestock as well. Without hay and adequate forage, sales of livestock will flood the market due to lack of making a profit with increased grain and forage prices. Unfortunately, the consumer will not see the benefit of lower prices do to the glut of meat entering the market.
Corn is the king crop and without it, higher prices at the grocery and pump will be felt. A large number of products uses corn or corn byproducts… just look at the many food products you consume daily and the majority of sweetners is corn syrup or high fructose corn syrup.
Ponds are drying up rapidly. Hay prices have sky rocketed…. if you can even find it available in large quantities. And the worst part is ALL of the midwest is in a drougt. Not just OK and TX last year where all our KS and MO hay went.
We are sending some very nice lambs to market this fall instead of wintering over till next year. Not worth the small weight gain compared to the cost of feeding them all winter.
This is the really sad reality about heat and drought. On here we read the thoughts of a bunch of trite suburbanites complaining about the unbearable five seconds between their car and the office, and how the state of the lawn makes their home lack “curb appeal,” but the agricultural sector is the depressing loser when the prolonged heat and drought comes. If summers get hotter and dryer for longer periods as time progresses, there is going to be a serious disruption in the food supply at some point.
The sky is falling the sky is falling lol
MUKU…while I agree with you that folks are very quick to react in a somewhat knee jerk fashion, I dont think that is what chicken or farm girl were saying. What I do believe is that big corporations will look for any reason to drive up food prices and that does piss me off.
As for grain, the reality is our country does have more than enough grain stock to recover from a serious drought from year to year. Now if it occurred for say 3-5 years in a row, then yes, we could have a problem on our hands in regards to grain availability.
The reality is everything always can and will change with the weather so relief is only months away. It would not surprise me to have a brutally cold and snowy winter followed by a wet spring…anything is always possible.
MUKU…One more thing, what does crack me up is when they are calling for a big snow event or maybe some ice, you go to the store and there isnt a gallon of milk or loaf of bread in sight! That is seriously funny. Now back 50 years or so ago I could understand that but in our times, the streets are cleared off in no time. Panicking people always make me laugh
Now those are “sky is falling” people and I tend to make fun of them much like you…Its always good for a laugh or two
Garden City/Creighton At 4:00 the temps are slowly dropping. 106.7. A few minutes ago it was 107.8. The high today 110.5. Yes, it is in the shade. In fact it is just outside the north window so it might be cooled by the house.
I feel I just need to comment… being the son of parents who farmed their entire lives, I do agree with farm girl and her concerns. I remember my parents often feeling the same way.
Now, as for, mukustink, I doubt he has any farming experience or knowledge. Booze yes, farming no. This blogger is one of the most negative persons I have ever met, and my students last year, when we worked on the blog for over 8 months, felt the same way.
According to this person, people can’t vent their concerns without him coming back and saying something silly or inappropriate.
Step away from the ledge and go to the medicine cabinet and take your meds okay. My comment was directed at chicken little because chicken little said the sky is falling remember? Now do you really think that the food supply is going to be disrupted? If you do then I have a bridge to sell you in Iraq. For the record I don’t drink booze. Your pprobably one of those teachers where everyone passes and gets a medal. That’s what’s wrong with this freaking country. Your comment makes no sense anyway. I vented my concern of people acting like the sky is falling(mainly because the name is chicken little.) So I would take your comment as being inappropriate. On second thought go ahead and climb back onto the ledge and JUMP.
Your response was just as I suspected… and for the record, you know nothing about me as an educator. Looking back over the last school year, I have proof and documentation about many of your comments. You appear to have the traits of a very unhappy person, who needs to be pitied.