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Heat & Humidity Should Lead To T-Storms

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now- 6 PM:  Hot, Humid, and mostly sunny. The wind will be much lighter today. High:  95°
  • 6 PM – 9 PM:  Thunderstorms form over central Kansas and begin moving our way. We will track these closely to see who will get hit and who will get missed. Remember, these thunderstorms don’t exist now and this is why timing them out and knowing exactly where they are going to hit and miss is quite difficult until we see them forming. We should have a good idea by the time I am doing the weather at 6:30 PM on 41 Action News.

Severe Weather Risk:

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There is an enhanced slight risk placed over southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Here is the reason why:

1

A low pressure area will be located over central Kansas southwest of Salina. There are weak surface features, surface boundaries extending out of this low, and there are no thunderstorms this morning affecting the air mass. This will allow for temperatures to approach 100 degrees near the surface low. Dew points will be rising into the 70s and the atmosphere will be primed to have thunderstorms exploded near the surface low. The first thunderstorms that form will likely be the most powerful, but then the thunderstorms should grow in number and organize into a complex of thunderstorms that is called an MCS or Mesoscatle-Convective-System.

2

Most of the models have this complex of thunderstorms reaching peak strength in southern Kansas in the middle of that enhanced slight risk area. Kansas City is on the northeast edge of this system and I am not highly confident it will make it north of I-70, but it may and we just have to track this as it forms.

What happens Friday and Saturday will have to be monitored closely as well. A much stronger surface cold front will be developing and tracking across Saturday evening:

4

This is a strong enough cold front to drop temperatures across the plains significantly by Fathers Day.  A line of thunderstorms will likely form during the late afternoon and evening along and ahead of this cold front with a severe weather risk.

The cycling weather pattern as described by the LRC:

This storm can be traced back to LRC Cycle 1 where we had a very similar system moving across in October around 240 days ago.

3

Have a great day and thank you for participating in this weather experience.  We will keep you updated as this system today gets organized.

Gary

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