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Heat, Humidity, Few T-Storms, Alberto

Good Memorial day weekend bloggers,

The weather pattern is set up this weekend for our region to be mostly dry, hot and humid. A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and we will look at that in a moment.

Here is a look at the forecast for the Memorial day weekend.

1

As we said above the weather pattern is set up for our region to be mostly dry, hot and humid as the main jet stream is located across Canada. This prevents tornado alley from seeing widespread and organized severe thunderstorms. Now, that being said, a weak upper level trough is located over the western USA and this will bring a weak southwest flow to the northern Plains. So, the northern Rockies to northern Plains will see a few rounds of heavy thunderstorms and some severe weather. A few of those thunderstorms may affect western Kansas.

Alberto will be affecting the northern Gulf coast as a tropical storm. Flooding is possible to likely along and north of the Gulf coast as not only will Alberto arrive, but there is copious tropical moisture and disturbances north of Alberto.

The southern/central Plains to the Great Lakes are caught in the middle with generally sinking air. This means hot, humid and mostly dry conditions for the holiday weekend.

2

This is, on average, the wettest weekend of the year, so it is tough to keep rain totally out of the forecast. Today is one of those days. There is a weak surface trough lying west-east across northern Missouri along with a small disturbance or two tracking south. These features generated a few small thunderstorms this morning in northern Missouri that tracked south into central Missouri. This afternoon a few new showers and thunderstorms will form in northern Missouri, then drop south, farther west.

If you are out and about, on a lake or in a pool between 3 PM and 10 PM keep an eye to the sky. This is the kind of set up where weather conditions can change rapidly. You can go from sunny and hot to a thunderstorm very quickly. These thunderstorms can pack a punch for about 15 minutes with very heavy rain, frequent lightning, a gust of wind and a temperature drop into the 70s, if not 60s. So, being on a lake or in a pool when one of these thunderstorms move in, is not wise.

3

After 10 PM the showers and thunderstorms will dissipate. The rest of the night will be dry, mild and humid with lows 65°-70°.

SUNDAY-MEMORIAL DAY: The chance of a thunderstorm is under 10% as the little boundary from today will be gone. Basically these days will be hot and humid with highs 90°-95° along with a few afternoon clouds. A shower or T-Storm may briefly form from one of the clouds. Lows on Memorial day will be 65°-70°.

4

The pattern will become a bit more active Tuesday-Friday as the jet stream heads south. The best chance for widespread thunderstorms is Wednesday-Thursday.

Have a safe and happy Memorial day weekend.

Please don’t drink and drive.

Thank you to all the veterans.

Jeff Penner

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