Has Severe Weather Season Ended?

Good morning,

There is a weak upper level low over the southern plains with a very weak wave of energy moving in from the south. This will produce a few showers and thunderstorms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas. For Kansas City, a few small showers and thunderstorms are likely, but they will move slowly and most areas will stay dry. There is a chance one could form near you however, so keep your eye to the sky as the clouds could be quite pretty as they build up around our are once the sun has had a chance to warm us into the 80s by noon.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today-Sunday: A great morning followed by a warm and muggy afternoon. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are likely today and Sunday. But, the chance of one forming right over your head is 20%. Highs in the middle 80s with light southeast winds.

Has severe weather season ended? Let’s take a look.  Rarely is severe weather season cut off by June 1st.  The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and we know that those ridges will return on schedule and be stronger as we move into summer. Our weather team at Weather2020 has been forecasting these ridges to strengthen in June and July, but how strong will they become?  And, with our knowledge of this cycling pattern we know that more storm systems will make it into the Pacific northwest. How strong will these be and will they force the ridges to weaken and push east or will these storm systems ride over the top of the ridges creating longer term heat waves?  This is something we are expecting to happen, to have a few of the ridges become too strong for these storm systems to penetrate, but which one will “stick” and create a heat wave?  The pattern right now appears to be capable of producing one of those stronger ridges and it has been showing up on some of the models. Either way, the severe weather season may have ended as there is nothing showing up that would produce a good storm chase for the tornado chasers out there in the next ten days.

The forecast for Monday night shows one of he ridges leaning from southwest to northeast, and this configuration is going to help bring a backdoor front through the eastern and central plains states.  And, you can see one of the storm systems that earlier in the cycling pattern would have tracked much farther south, but we are now seeing the summer version of this years LRC and this storm is begin deflected over the ridge.

Around a week from today a stronger storm is forecast to move into the Pacific northwest and another ridge will build over the plains. Will this storm be strong enough to break down the ridge, push it east, and create a severe weather risk?  This is something we will be monitoring.

Tornado stats by state:

Have a great day and we will see how all of this sets up soon.  For now, it appears we will have mostly a dry next ten days or so. There will be a few afternoon and evening isolated showers or thunderstorms possible as well, but these will be small and move slowly.


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