Harvey Is Moving Back Out Over Warm Generating Water

Good morning bloggers,

Harvey Moving back out

Major Hurricane Harvey is now a tropical storm and the surface circulation is now moving back over the warm tropical storm generating water of the Gulf of Mexico.  Harvey is going to be one of the most costly hurricanes in history with billions of dollars in damages in progress right now. As you can see on the above radar image, Harvey’s circulation center near the surface is moving back over the open water. Most of the models take this out farther off the coast before it turns north.

Harvey Surface Tue

It will be fascinating to monitor this week. Will Harvey strengthen as the system moves over the warmer water.  Conditions will become favorable for strengthening around Tuesday night, so will Harvey still be over water, or will it had made landfall again?  The European Model has the farthest south track that I have seen and the system very gradually is forecast to begin strengthening as it moves northeast towards Tennessee.  As you can see below, by Friday the system has taken five more days just to get over western Tennessee and possibly southeast Missouri. The models are all over the place still on where this may be located later this week. Kansas City will be influenced by this system, but the effect will be more fantastic weather this far north and a dry rest of the week.

Screen Shot 2017-08-28 at 7.16.55 AM

For places like Houston, TX 15 more inches of rain are possible adding onto 25 to 30 inches that have already fallen. A total of 50″ just sounds ridiculous. We had 8″ of rain last week with major flooding over spots on in KC. This is almost six times that much rain.

Kansas City Weather:

The week began with thunderstorms on Sunday and another cloudy, wet summer day.  As August comes to a close we have done it again. It is now the wettest August in Kansas City’s recorded history.




Only April did not have a wetter second half of the month.  We are still cycling through the same pattern that set up last fall. The new and unique pattern will evolve soon, but it does not set up until the first week or so of October. So, September is very likely going to follow suit and the chance of a wetter second half of September is much higher than a wetter first half.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.


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