Harvey and Sunday KC T-Storms

Good Saturday,

Hurricane Harvey made landfall Friday night around 830 PM as a Category 4.  The last time a Category 4 made a USA landfall was August 13, 2004 in Cayo Costa, FL. That was hurricane Charley.

Before we get into the Kansas City weekend forecast let’s talk tropical weather.  Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.  The peak is around the second week of September.


Here is a list of the names for this season in the Atlantic basin.  Did you know if there is a tropical system after the last name is used they turn to the Greek alphabet?  So, after Whitney comes Alpha.

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These are the tracks so far this season in the Atlantic.  Arlene formed in April and is the circle path in the middle of the Atlantic.  Arlene was mostly subtropical.  This season, so far, most of the tropical systems have originated west of Africa.

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Now, let’s focus on Harvey.  Saturday morning Harvey was southwest of Victoria, TX and it has lost it’s eye on the satellite.  It had been on land for about 12 hours at the point of this picture.  Once these tropical systems are removed from the warm waters and more friction-less surface of large bodies of water, they rapidly weaken.  Now, that being said, bands of torrential rain can remain for days.


The main problem with Harvey is that it is going to barely move the next 5-7 days and the bands of rain will be incessant over southeast Texas.

Here is the powercast for Saturday afternoon.  You can see it is still west of Victoria, TX.


Now, look at the powercast for Thursday.  This is crazy as in five days, Harvey will still be west of San Antonio.  So, the next 5 days it is going to meander around southeast Texas and the bands of rain will be ongoing for days, creating a major flood event.


This is the total rainfall forecast between Saturday and Thursday.  This is incredible for two reasons.  It is not just the 20″ to 40″ amounts, but the amount of territory this covers.  It is a 230 mile wide area where this amount of rain will occur.  Remember, in KC last Monday-Tuesday we saw 6″-10″ of rain in a much smaller area and you know what that created.  So, a major mess is likely this week.


Now. let’s get to the KC forecast.  While southeast Texas receives 20″ to 40″ of rain, we may see .25″ to 1″, with some locations seeing 2″ of rain. This is the rainfall forecast through Thursday and it all occurs on Sunday. The heaviest amounts look to be west of KC, but this could change and shift farther east.


SATURDAY: This is going to be a great day to hang out at the pool as these days are numbered.  Highs today will be 80°-85° with a partly to mostly sunny sky and light south breeze.


SUNDAY MORNING: We will see clouds increasing with the chance for a few showers, but the main rain chance arrives during the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s.


SUNDAY (11 AM to 2 PM): We will be tracking a more organized area of thunderstorms coming in from the northwest.


SUNDAY (2 PM TO 8 PM): At this time, this appears to be the best chance of thunderstorms in KC.  We do not expect much, if any, severe weather, but we could see some very heavy downpours.  Also, this does not look like one of those huge flooding events as it will move on after 8 PM.


The rain tomorrow is the only chance the next seven days, and we are looking at dry and comfortable weather next week.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

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