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Hard to Explain

Good Saturday bloggers,

Well, this morning, once again, we tracked a functional and large MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) from South Dakota to Nebraska before it went poof in eastern Kansas. This is not the first time this has happened this season and it will likely not be the last. We are in the same pattern from the winter, remember the snow?

An outflow boundary and gravity wave emanated from the dissipating complex of thunderstorms early in the morning. These features often induce new thunderstorms to form and this happened on an isolated basis. Sometimes you get much more rain from the outflow boundary, but not this year.

This was the sky looking east around 7 AM. Really? It looked like this during the early morning in June and there was no rain? A few downpours did end up forming,  but my goodness.

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The thunderstorms were really rolling at 10:45 PM Friday and they had direct aim on KC. Also, note the thunderstorms in northeast Missouri. There was localized flooding from those, but certainly no drought busters.

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When I got up at 3 AM to get ready for work, I looked at the radar and I thought, oh my, here come the thunderstorms. The short range data did not even have the thunderstorms this far south. So, I got excited for a few minutes.  But….

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One and a half hours later when I got to 41 Action News this is what I saw. The same old thing, thunderstorms rapidly falling apart as the saw Kansas City.

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This is what was left of the thunderstorms by 935 AM Saturday, not much.  What a joke. Now, there is a small system located over northwest Iowa that is going to generate some great rain for eastern Iowa, Illinois and perhaps eastern Missouri. This system was supposed to be farther south, based on data from a few days ago. It s hard to believe we have all these clouds and so little rain.

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So, what is next? We do have one somewhat decent chance of at least scattered thunderstorms the next three days.

SATURDAY: The clouds will thin allowing us to rise into the 90s with 100s to the west. The thunderstorms are going to be found on the edge of the heat. The low in northwest Iowa will be generating thunderstorms in eastern Iowa today.

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SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY: The low shown above is going to generate a big complex of T-Storms in Illinois, eastern Iowa, moving into eastern Missouri. This is far from KC, but it is bringing great rain to prime corn belt real estate.

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SUNDAY: The heat remains in the same places with scattered ares of showers and thunderstorms on the edge of the heat. A few thunderstorms may sneak into northern Missouri during the morning.

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MONDAY: It will be another hot day with highs in the 90s. But, this time a cold front will be moving in from the west and this should generate a broken line of thunderstorms during the evening. This line will track across eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the night. Once again, not all locations will see rain, but the coverage will be higher than what we have been dealing with the last several days.

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So, the “Sprinkler Warning” is back on as the only rain chance the next few days is Monday evening.  If this falls through there is a chance Wednesday, but that does not look great either.

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Have a great weekend,

Jeff

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