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Happy Thanksgiving! Two storms to track!

Good morning bloggers,

Happy Thanksgiving to all of the bloggers!  I am thankful that you have all helped create a great place for us to share in our weather enthusiasm!  Now, did the data come in good or bad overnight?  Let’s take a look.

The first storm will spread some rain across our area on Friday.  This season, the storm systems that have threatened KC have not been swinging and missing like in the past four years, and we will be testing this out beginning with Friday’s storm, then finishing with Sunday.  Here is a look at Friday’s rain pattern:

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The chance of rain will increase later tonight into Friday morning.  I would have the rain gear ready for Black Friday shopping.  Then, we will focus our attention on this:

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The trend on the models was definitely good for snow enthusiasts overnight.  There are some models that missed Kansas City with a northern track, while others, like the NAM and European models had a southern trend on the past couple of runs.  The map above shows the pressure gradient that is quite tight. The black lines are called isobars, or lines of equal pressure. When they are packed together, it indicates a high likelihood of strong winds.  The areas that have snow will see temperatures crashing into the 20s on Sunday and blizzard conditions will develop. Right now, northern Missouri is the likely blizzard target extending into Iowa.  The big question in the next few days will be the continued trend. Just a slight south trend, and KC is in the blizzard.  Now, a slight north trend, and KC may not see more than a few snowflakes blowing in the wind.  Below, you can see the European Model that did bring the 4″+ snow band into Kansas City.

f5weather-8

My confidence is quite shaky right now.  I do like the trend on some of the models, and this is still three days away.  If KC is going to get hit by this storm, then the trend in the models will continue to be farther south.

Happy Thanksgiving from my family to yours!  Stay safe, get some exercise in before you eat your big meal, and head down to see the Plaza Lighting Ceremony. The stage performances begin at 5 PM, and the show begins on 41 Action News, streaming on KSHB.com at 6 PM.   Thank you for sharing in this weather experience, and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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