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Happy New Year

Happy New Year,

We hope everyone had a safe New Year’s Eve.  It is a cold start to 2019, and it is far warmer than it was a year ago.  This morning drop to around 15 degrees is 26 degrees warmer than it was a year ago.  Another big warming trend is in the forecast later this week, and the storm that fits the LRC almost perfectly to track south of KC Thursday is doing just that as you can see on this forecast map for Thursday:

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This map shows the next storm tracking across Texas with the northern edge of the precipitation staying south of Kansas.  We just had another rather wet December storm, and Kansas City had over 3″ of rain in December, and hardly any snow, despite snowflakes falling on many days.  It snowed on 8 different days last month for a whopping total of 0.5″.  And, it has now snowed on 15 days this season already for a total of 8.3″ at KCI Airport.  We are back down to our 1/2″ per day that it snowed.

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A trend in what direction:

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The Arctic Oscillation can be argued to showcase when it has been cold, and when it has been warm this season. It may be a good indicator, and it is far from perfect.  The LRC tells us when storm systems are most likely, where they are most likely going to track, and it provides us insight in so many other ways. And, then there are these other influences that must be calculated in.  The AO is just one of those factors, influences. This shows a predicted dip into negative territory in the next two weeks, and this is just an ensemble of models that show a range from one of them that stays positive, and most of them that dip negative.  If this negative dip continues to show up, then there is a good chance it will turn colder in the middle to end of this month.  At the same time, and I did an extensive LRC analysis yesterday, a series of stronger storm systems is likely during the last 20 days of this month as well according to the LRC.  Will there be cold air for these storm systems to work with?

Happy New Year everyone. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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